Thursday, September 30, 2021

Markets are running into selling while government funding is unclear

Dow dropped 182, decliners slightly over advancers & NAZ went up 40.  The MLP index was off 1 to 182 & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 449s.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries edged higher.  Oil fell 1 to 74 & gold surged 31 to 1754.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

GC=FGold1,743.80
+20.90+1.21%

 

 




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As Dems forge ahead with unilateral negotiations on Pres Biden's $3.5T spending package, Reps – & at least 1 Dem moderate – caution the expansive slate of social programs included in the bill could have lasting negative consequences for American workers.  The $3.5T spending bill includes many social initiatives championed by progressives, including an extension of monthly child tax credit payments, universal pre-K, free college tuition, paid family leave & expanded child care.  Biden & progressive backers say the slate will create a more inclusive economy that will provide new opportunities for low- & middle-income families.  Under the plan, a grant program would make free community college available regardless of people's "basis of citizenship, alienage, or immigration status."  Medicare would add dental, hearing & vision benefits to its coverage, &, the gov would shell out some $200B to establish universal pre-kindergarten for kids 3 & 4 years of age.  But critics say Biden's social spending programs will effectively create a "welfare state" that will hurt the ongoing US economic recovery & expand the gov's influence over workers.  Sen Susan Collins made the case during a floor speech earlier this week, arguing Biden's "expensive entitlement programs" will "break the connection between work and a brighter future."  "We will not build a more prosperous, just and equitable society characterized by opportunity, dignity and meaning just by issuing government checks," Collins added.  "The time-tested way to achieve those goals for American families is by supporting and rewarding work. It is by recognizing the dignity of work."

Dem joins Republicans warning Biden's govt assistance program will backfire

More Americans filed for first-time jobless benefits last week despite a decline in new COVID-19 cases & the impact of Hurricane Ida subsiding.  The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose by 11K to 362K last week, according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast expected the number of first-time filings to decline to 335K.  Continuing claims slid to 2.802M from a downwardly revised 2.845M in the week prior.  The forecast was for a decline to 2.8M.  The decrease in continuing claims came 2 weeks after the expiration of $300 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits.  About 5M Americans received some form of unemployment assistance, a drop of more than 6M from the prior week.  More than 27.2M Americans filed for benefits during the comparable week in 2020.

Initial jobless claims rise unexpectedly

Congress will race to prevent a gov shutdown today with hours to go before a midnight deadline.  The Senate plans to move first to pass a short-term appropriations bill that would keep the gov running thru Dec 3.  Barring delays, the House would then approve the plan & send it to Pres Biden before funding lapses.  The legislation includes money for hurricane relief & the resettlement of Afghan refugees.  It appears set to pass with bipartisan support, as both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer & Minority Leader Mitch McConnell spoke in support of it earlier today.  “I’m confident the House will approve this measure later this afternoon and send it to the president’s desk before funding runs out,” Schumer said.  “This is a good outcome, one I’m happy we are getting done.”  A gov shutdown could lead to furloughs of federal workers & the suspension of certain services.  A funding lapse could pose particular challenges during US efforts to fight the coronavirus pandemic — though the Biden administration has said a shutdown would have little effect on public health functions.  Congress can snuff out one possible crisis today but has another looming.  Lawmakers still need to raise or suspend the debt ceiling before Oct 18 to prevent a default on US debt that would result in job losses, economic damage & a drop in the stock market.  Dems, who control both chambers of Congress, tried to fund the gov & suspend the debt ceiling as part of the same bill.  Senate Reps blocked the legislation, even though extending the ceiling doesn’t mean new spending.  Approval would authorize the Treasury to cover its existing obligations.  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said his party will vote for a funding bill without a suspension of the debt ceiling.

Congress moves to prevent a government shutdown with deadline hours away

A simple measure to fund the gov for the next 12 months remains uncertain & the critical deadline is midnight tonight.  That's because those guys in DC are too busy arguing about how much money can be slopped around (& they are talking about record amounts of money).  Then there is raising the debt ceiling but there are 18 days remaining (maybe less) for approval.  If those guys were better behaved, they would recognize that reckless, partisan behavior makes them look like goofballs to the rest of the world.  They don't know & don't care.  Meanwhile the recovering economy is stumbling & that should continue into Q4 which begins tomorrow.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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