Dow dropped 207, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ fell 17. The MLP index inched up to 180 & the REIT index was off a tad in the 466s. Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were in heavy demand. Oil climbed chump change as it nears 71 & gold jumped 12 to 1807.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
|
Prices for an array of consumer goods rose less than expected in Aug in a sign that inflation may be starting to cool, the Labor Dept reported. The consumer price index (CPI), which measures a basket of common products as well as various energy goods, increased 5.3% from a year earlier & 0.3% from Jul. A month ago, prices rose 0.5% from Jun. The forecast called for a 5.4% annual rise & 0.4% on the month. Stripping out volatile food & energy prices, the CPI rose just 0.1% for the month vs. the 0.3% estimate & 4% on the year against the expectation of 4.2%. The 5.3% annual increase still keeps inflation at its hottest level in about 13 years, though the Aug numbers indicate the pace may be abating. Energy prices accounted for much of inflation increase for the month, with the broad index up 2% & gasoline prices rising 2.8%. Food prices were up 0.4%, & energy was up 25% from a year ago & gasoline has surged 42% during the period. However, excluding those 2 categories resulted in the slowest monthly CPI increase since Feb. Used car & truck prices, which had been a major feeder of the headline inflation gains, fell 1.5% in Aug but are still up 31.9% year on year. New vehicle prices, though, rose 1.2%. Federal Reserve officials have been watching inflation closely but have largely said they believe this year's burst will be temporary & due to factors that will soon fade. They cite supply chain bottlenecks, shortages of critical products like semiconductors & heightened pandemic-related demand for goods as major contributors that at some point will drift back to normal levels.
Consumer prices post smaller-than-expected increase in August
Covid-19 case counts in the US are showing signs
of easing off their latest highs but remain elevated as the country
heads into the fall season & colder weather. The 7-day
average of daily Covid cases is about 144K as of Sun, according
to Johns Hopkins University. That figure is down 12%
over the past week & 14% from the most-recent peak in case counts on
Sep 1, when the country was reporting an average of roughly 167K
cases per day. “This
is good news,” said Dr Arturo Casadevall, chair of molecular
microbiology & immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of
Public Health. “It could represent that we have reached a peak and we
are now on the way down.” The US has seen several swings in daily Covid
cases since the pandemic started. Average daily cases topped out at
about 32K in Apr 2020 before subsiding. They then surged & peaked
at 67K by Jul 2020. The pace of new cases fell after Labor Day 2020
before surging to a record high of 251K cases per day in Jan. There was also a steep drop-off after the holidays, followed with
another jump to about 71K cases per day this past Apr. “Every
epidemic goes through cycles and eventually wanes, and that happens
when you have enough people who are resistant,” Casadevall added,
explaining that the combination of vaccinations & high number of
infections this summer could be helping the country turn a corner. However,
he cautioned that the virus has been unpredictable. “I would just be
careful declaring anything except some degree of optimism with the fact
that the numbers are going down.” There are also promising
signs in Covid hospitalization & death tallies. The data on these
tends to lag case counts by a couple weeks or more, as it takes time for
people to become infected with the virus & then get sick enough to
need urgent care. About
100K Americans are currently hospitalized with Covid, according to a 7-day average of data from the Dept of Health & Human
Services, down 2% from a week ago. Though current
hospitalizations had not been over 100K since Jan before crossing
that level again in late Aug, the pace of new Covid patients
entering the hospital is now on the decline. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention data shows a 6.8% drop in the 7-day average of
hospital admissions for the week ending Sep 10 compared to the week
prior.
U.S. Covid cases finally start to dip from latest peak, but delta still on the rise in some states
The massive, multitrillion-dollar tax & spending package that congressional Dems are currently crafting would weigh on the US economy in the long term, causing the nation's deficit to spike & the GDP to decline, according to a new study. The $3.5T measure is expected to include federally funded paid family leave, expand public education, establish community colleges & combat climate change. It would be paid for by a bevy of tax hikes on wealthy Americans & corps, although lawmakers are still hashing out the specifics. Dems have billed the plan, which forms the basis of Pres Biden's "Build Back Better" agenda, as a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity — but the proposal could cause GDP, the broadest measure of goods & services produced in a country, to shrink by 4% in 2050, relative to the current baseline, according to finding from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a nonpartisan group at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. At the same time, the multitrillion-dollar bill could cause federal debt to surge by roughly 8.9%, assuming the provisions included in the legislation phase out after a 10-year period. Dems have not yet released legislative text. If the spending proposals continue indefinitely after the 10-year window, gov debt is projected to grow by a staggering 16.4% in 2050, while GDP would shrink by 4.8%. Specifics of the $3.5T package are likely to change before Dems craft the final bill they plan to pass along a party-line vote in coming weeks using the procedural tool known as budget reconciliation, which allows them to bypass a Senate filibuster by GOP lawmakers.
Dems' $3.5T reconciliation bill could slash GDP as government debt spikes
The CPI was less than expected, but remains at worrisome levels. The economic model above makes investors more nervous of the pork filled gov spending plan from the Dems. As a result gold & Treasuries are in demand.Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment