Thursday, September 23, 2021

Markets climb as investors ignore tapering signals by the Fed

Dow surged 512, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ jumped 161.  The MLP index gained 2+ to the 178s & the REIT index slid back chump change to 464.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries declined, bringing higher yields.  Oil went up about 1 to the 73s & gold tumbled 28 to 1750 while stocks were being purchased.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil72.83 
+0.60+0.8%












GC=FGold   1,750.30
-28.50 -1.6%











 

 




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The number of Americans filing for first-time jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week.placeholder  The Labor Dept reported that 351K Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, an increase from the previous week’s upwardly revised 335K filings.  The forecast was expecting 320K new filings.  Continuing claims jumped to 2.85M, worse than the 2.6M that was expected.  The prior week’s reading was revised higher by 49K to 2.71M filings.  The increase in continuing claims came a week after the expiration of $300 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits.  About 11.2M Americans received some form of unemployment assistance, a drop of more than 856K from the prior week.  More than 26.6M Americans filed for benefits during the comparable week in 2020.  There were 10.9m jobs open in Jul, according to the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey released earlier this month.

Number of Americans filing for first-time benefits unexpectedly spikes

Rep Pramila Jayapal made the media rounds this week, warning moderate Dems that nearly 50 members of her progressive caucus will defeat the bipartisan-negotiated infrastructure bill in Congress if a larger, more expensive "reconciliation" bill doesn't win approval first.  Jayapal – chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which includes 95 House members & one senator -- said she had made the group's intentions clear to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  To progressives, the larger reconciliation package, estimated at $3.5T, represents the bulk of the Biden agenda that Jayapal said is what Dems were elected to deliver to their voters, with the $1T infrastructure bill representing only a portion of that agenda.  Therefore, progressives want to pass the larger plan first.  "We have to deliver on the entirety of the president’s agenda," Jayapal said.  "We have to deliver on child care, we have to deliver on paid leave, we have to make sure people can go to free community college, we need to make sure we’re taking out climate change, we’ve got to address housing and immigration and Medicare expansion. These are critical priorities for the American people and if we wait … then it’s kids, it’s working class families, it’s people across this country that voted us in because they knew that this was what we had promised and now we’ve got to deliver."  She said progressives have pledged to support the infrastructure bill – regardless of objections some members may have with parts of the plan – if the larger bill is approved first.  Jayapal disagreed with the suggestion the progressives' hard-line stand might ultimately hurt Pres Biden politically.  "What we are fighting for is the president’s agenda," she responded.  "It’s actually what we all ran on."  She also claimed that in pledging support for the infrastructure bill, progressives were being "team players" despite that plan's Dem negotiators – including Sen Joe Manchin of West Virginia & Kirsten Sinema of Arizona – not involving progressives in the talks.

Jayapal warns far-left will derail Biden’s agenda unless he meets their demands

Chinese authorities are asking local govs to prepare for the potential downfall of China Evergrande Group, according to officials familiar with the discussions, signaling a reluctance to bail out the debt-saddled property developer while bracing for any economic & social fallout from the company's travails.  The officials characterized the actions being ordered as "getting ready for the possible storm," saying that local-level gov agencies & state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in to handle the aftermath only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion.  They said that local govs have been tasked with preventing unrest & mitigating the ripple effect on home buyers & the broader economy, for example by limiting job losses—scenarios that have grown in likelihood as Evergrande's situation has worsened.  Evergrande faces a series of bond payments in the coming weeks, including one closely watched deadline Thurs for an interest payment on an offshore bond.  Local govs have been ordered to assemble groups of accountants & legal experts to examine the finances around Evergrande's operations in their respective regions, talk to local state-owned & private property developers to prepare to take over local real-estate projects & set up law-enforcement teams to monitor public anger & "mass incidents," a euphemism for protests.

China makes preparations for Evergrande’s demise

With today's rise, the Dow is still down 600 in Sep.  Buyers are ignoring many very dark clouds in the sky, starting with the messes in DC.  The progressives assume that money grows on trees, therefore it's stupid not to take it.  And they are out for blood!!  Besides the record spending bill with unlimited pet projects, the debt ceiling MUST be raised & funding for the next fiscal year which begins next week is needed, at a minimum, before current pet projects they love run out of  money.  Meanwhile China may have big problems.  And the US economy has turned sluggish with the virus fighting back hard.  All is not well for equity investors.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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