Dow rose 157, advancers over decliners 2-1 but NAZ pulled back 79. The MLP index rose 4+ to the 184s along with higher oil prices & the REIT index added 1 to the 458s. Junk bond funds crawl higher & Treasuries fall as yields keep climbing. Oil jumped 1+ to the 75s & gold stayed close to 1750.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
|
|
A group of business economists' confidence in the economy is waning, a decline driven by the possibility of a new, vaccine-resistant COVID-19 variant. A survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) shows that its members expect the economy to grow 5.6% this year – down sharply from their previous estimate of 6.5% & the respondents projected the economy will grow by 3.5% in 2022. "NABE Outlook survey panelists have moderated their expectations about the prospects for economic growth in 2021 since May," said David Altig, pres-elect of the NABE & the director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The economists are increasingly becoming more pessimistic about the growth outlook: More than ½ of respondents – 58% – said risks to the economy are skewed to the downside, compared to just 15% in May. Only 16% of respondents said the risks to the outlook are skewed to the upside, down strikingly from 56% in May. Pandemic-related issues continue to dominate the list of potential risks: Nearly 2/3 of the economists said they viewed the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants of COVID-19 as the biggest threat, while 9% identified slowing vaccine uptake. Another 9% said they were worried about the possibility of a "large fiscal program" as Dems craft a massive $3.5T spending bill, while 5% of respondents said the greatest downside risk is fiscal policy inaction or gridlock. On the flip side, about 44% of respondents identified a faster vaccine rollout as the biggest upside risk to the economy, followed by an infrastructure spending package (14%) & stronger global growth (12%).
Economic recovery losing momentum: NABE survey
Orders for big-ticket items jumped last month as manufacturers continued to navigate the supply-chain disruptions caused by COVID-19. 
New
orders for manufactured durable goods in Aug rose 1.8% to $263B, according to the Census Bureau. The forecast called for a 0.7% increase. Orders rose by an upwardly revised 0.5% in Jul & have now increased in 15 of the last 16 months. Excluding
transportation, orders rose 0.2% month over month, missing the 0.5%
increase that was expected. Excluding defense, new orders rose 2.4%. Transportation equipment, which has increased 3 of the past 4 months, rose $4.2B, or 5.5%. Shipments declined for a 3rd straight month, falling 0.5%.
Economic recovery losing momentum: NABE survey
Dems will officially begin debate on the bipartisan
infrastructure bill today, taking a major step toward passing all of Pres Biden's economic agenda even as it remains uncertain whether any of it can pass. House
Speaker Nancy Pelos sent a letter to fellow Dems yesterday announcing the plan. She said Dems aim to vote on the
infrastructure bill Thurs. "Let me just say we're going to
pass the bill this week," Pelosi said of the infrastructure bill. "But you know I'm never bringing a bill to the floor
that doesn't have the votes." Pelosi's confident tone comes
despite the fact she does not have the votes for the bill. Progressives say they won't vote for the infrastructure bill
until they have assurances that Dems' massive reconciliation
spending bill will pass. But statements yreterday from Jayapal & her moderate foil, Problem
Solvers Caucus Chairman Josh Gottheimer appeared to leave an
opening for the kind of grand bargain Pelosi seeks after a week of
Dems digging into their stances. "The way these things work
if you start debating it and it rolls over to Tuesday, I don't think – I
think we're all reasonable people," Gottheimer said. That was a significant departure from his previous demand
that the House vote on infrastructure today, when Pelosi initially said
she would bring up the bill in a deal with moderates last month. Jayapal said she's open to the possibility of making some cuts from the first draft of the bill, which was written to hit the $3.5T number. But in
an interview later yesterday, Jayapal challenged moderates to name
which parts of the bill they think should be jettisoned.
House debates infrastructure bill amid uncertainty it can pass Dem divides
Treasury yields bounced higher, continuing their
upward momentum from last week as the Federal Reserve moves closer to
easing off its pandemic-era policies. The economic recovery is struggling more than was previously appreciated. Meanwhlie massive spending bills in DC have run into headwinds. Bottom line, those guys are slopping around massive sums of money on pet projects. They don't understand numbers, & worse, don't care. Otherwise, they would be paying more attention to high inflation which impacts everybody. This is NO WAY to run a gov!!! A very tired Dow continues its flattish performance over the last 3 months (see below).
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment