Thursday, September 2, 2021

Markets continue climbing ahead of the Fed's job report tomorrow

Dow gained 131, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ was up 21.  The MLP index rose 3+ to the 182s & the REIT index fluctuated in the 481s.  Junk bond funds continued weak & Treasuries edged higher.  Oil added 1+ to the high 69s & gold fell 4 to 1811 (more on both below).

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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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US sales of Ford's (F) new vehicles last month declined by 33.1% from a year earlier due to an ongoing global shortage of semiconductor chips that's wreaking havoc on the automotive industry, the company said.  Sales capped off a dismal month of US auto sales in Aug, which plummeted to an adjusted selling rate of 13.1M vehicles, the worst pace since Jun 2020 & down from this year's peak of 18.5M in Apr.  The forecast for the Aug selling pace to be 13.1-14.4M vehicles, with JD Power & LMC Automotive forecasting overall sales to decline by 13.7% compared to Aug 2020.  The sales pace for any given month measures how many cars the industry would sell for the year if it sold the same amount every month.  It's a main barometer of the industry's health & demand.  The stock lost 8¢.
If you would like to learn more about Ford, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Ford’s U.S. sales decline 33% in August as chip shortage devastates auto industry

American Eagle (AEO) shares tumbled after the company reported fiscal Q2 revenue short of estimates, as its e-commerce business decelerated compared with the prior year.  Management also noted that back-to-school purchases have been coming later in the season, shifting out of the latest qtr & into Aug.  The company said reduced promotions & controlled costs helped fuel its profitability over the summer months.  “We’ve learned that you can still move a lot of goods without discounting,” CEO Jay Schottenstein said.  “Our stores are very productive.”  EPS was 58¢, compared to a loss of 8¢ a share a year earlier.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was 60¢, ahead of the 55¢ estimate.  Revenue grew 35% to $1.19B from $884M in the year-ago period.  The forecast was for $1.23B.  Aerie revenue of $336M was up 34% from a year earlier.  AEO's revenue rose 35% to $846M over the same period.  Digital sales fell 5% from 2020 levels.  Last summer, many consumers opted to shop online rather than visit stores due to the Covid pandemic.  Digital revenue jumped 66% on a 2-year basis.  AEO didn't offer an outlook for the upcoming qtr or for the year.  However, it said it is still on track to reach its previous 3-year targets.  By fiscal 2023, the retailer expects revenue to hit $5.5B & Aerie to grow to a $2B brand.  The stock slumped 3.01.
If you would like to learn more about AEO, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AEO?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

American Eagle revenue misses expectations as e-commerce sales slow

The remnants of what was once Hurricane Ida slammed the Northeast causing power outages, life-threatening flooding, tornadoes & heavy rains overnight.  Images & videos posted to social media showed cars left stranded on highways, while In the flooded streets of Brooklyn water poured into New York City subway stations.  Damaging tornadoes also slammed New Jersey neighborhoods.  The storm left nearly 76K people in Pennsylvania without power in addition to almost 61K in New Jersey & more than 43K in New York.  Officials warned  that residents continue not to travel if possible.  Flood advisories continued in areas of New York City today & New York City's emergency management system said that while a citywide travel ban had expired, a travel advisory was in effect.  "All non-emergency vehicles are advised to stay off of NYC streets and highways while clean-up continues," the agency tweeted.  Water rescues were still underway & at least 8 people died in New York City.  One death was reported in northern New Jersey.  Meteorologists reported that rainfall broke local records, including Newark, NJ's, wettest day on record.  The baggage claim area of Newark Liberty Intl Airport flooded & the airport said last night that it had suspended all flight activity.

Hurricane Ida chaos as cable, phone outages mount in Northeast

Gold futures logged a back-to-back loss, failing to find support even with the $ & bond yields edging down, as investors looked to Aug US employment data due tomorrow to determine the path forward for the Federal Reserve & bullion.  Dec gold  fell by $4 to settle at $1811 an ounce, following a tiny decline yesterday.  Prices trade around 0.4% lower week to date.  Last Fri's remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at the Jackson Hole central-bankers symposium, revealed that he supports tapering the pace of bond purchases this year, but didn't discuss when the Fed might formally announce the taper.  Powell's comments last week have made tomorrow's US monthly jobs update a yardstick for those hoping to glean insights on the possible timing & scope of the Fed's rollback of accommodations, which could influence trading in gold.  Gold's loss yesterday also came on the heels of gov data showing the number of people applying for employment benefits at the end of Aug fell to a new pandemic low, down by 14K to 340K.

Gold logs back-to-back loss; U.S. jobs data expected to provide the metal’s next directional cue

Oil futures ended sharply higher, with US prices at their highest in a month, supported by recent data that showing a sharp drop in US crude inventories.  Prices moved up despite a decision by a group of global oil producers to make no changes to their plan to gradually increase crude production.  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries & its allies (OPEC+), decided yesterday to stick to a plan reached in Jul to increase oil production by 400K barrels a day each month from Aug.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Oct rose $1.40 (2%) to settle at $69.99 a barrel.  That was the highest front-month contract settlement for the US benchmark in a month.  Global benchmark Nov Brent crude added $1.44  (2%) to $73.03 a barrel for its first gain in 3 sessions.  Some analysts had anticipated that OPEC+ would consider a delay in proceeding with lifting output curbs due the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus which has threatened to weaken energy demand.  However, market participants said US petroleum supply data reported Wed was supportive.  The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories fell by 7.2M barrels last week following 3 weeks of declines in a row & more than 60% greater than the average decline of 4.4M barrels expected.

U.S. oil prices at 1-month high, buoyed by a drop in U.S. supplies, after OPEC+ output decision

Although buyers were in charge today, trading was choppy.  But buying into the close lifted closing prices.  The jobs report will drive the market tomorrow.

Dow Jones Industrials




 




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