Dow went up 261, advancers over decliners 3-2 but NAZ was off 9. The MLP index added 2+ to the 178s & the REIT index rose 3+ to the 466s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries remained in demand. Oil continued higher, above 70, & gold added 2 to 1794 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Progressive Rep Jamaal Bowman refused to rule out voting against the bipartisan infrastructure bill if Sen Joe Manchin doesn't budge on his demand that Dems' reconciliation bill cost $1.5T or less – not even ½ the current $3.5T price tag. "We'll see when we get there," Bowman said when
pressed about whether he would vote against a bill that costs
significantly less than the $3.5T number many left-leaning
Dems have said is their floor. "But we still have several
weeks, weeks of negotiation to make sure we are all on the same page
before it's time to vote," Bowman added. The comment
is similar to statements by many House progressives & "Squad" members
in recent weeks that they'll vote against infrastructure if
reconciliation doesn't pass. And progressives have been vocal that they
want a $3.5T topline number on the reconciliation bill. But Bowman is among the first to be asked about what he would do on
infrastructure if the reconciliation is downsized to placate moderates
like Manchin. This is slightly different than other recent threats
from progressives conditioning their votes for infrastructure on the
passage of reconciliation without explicitly mentioning the price. And
Bowman's comment – days after Manchin's $1.5T price demand
became public – indicates progressives may be willing to sink one of Pres Biden's biggest priorities if they don't get their way on reconciliation. Bowman, however, did emphasize that Dems are still talking
amongst themselves & expressed optimism they could come to a
compromise.
Squad' Dem may torpedo infrastructure bill if Manchin doesn't budge on reconciliation
Consumer companies have questions for Pres Biden about his plan to increase vaccination rates. On Thurs, Biden outlined a 6-pronged plan for raising vaccination rates. His administration will require federal employees to get inoculated, without an option for weekly Covid-19 tests. Biden also said he would ask the Dept of Labor to issue a rule that requires employers with more than 100 employees to mandate vaccines or require weekly testing. New US Covid cases hit a 7-day moving average of 124K yesterday, down about 19% from a week prior, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Still, case rates are hovering near Jan levels, before Covid vaccines were available to most of the population. The Consumer Brands Association wrote a letter to Biden that included a “small sampling” of the questions that its members have asked the organization as they prepare for a vaccine mandate for their workers. The trade group represents consumer packaged goods companies. The trade group's questions for Biden span a range of concerns: Must an employee be fully vaccinated to work? Will the requirements only apply to vaccines that are fully approved by the Food & Drug Administration? What are the consequences of falsifying one's vaccination or testing status, & does the responsibility rest with the individual or employer? Will waivers be allowed if essential employees’ absences or attrition cause significant disruption to the CPG supply chain? “The Consumer Brands Association and our member companies stand ready to partner with you in getting Americans vaccinated,” the group's CEO Geoff Freeman wrote in the letter. “Strong, consistent collaboration between the private and public sector on implementation will accelerate progress on our shared goal.” The proposed mandate comes at a difficult time for these employers, who have been seeing sluggish hiring trends. In Aug, the CPG industry added just 6K jobs, well short of its needs to keep up with demand. Many companies have held off of implementing internal vaccine mandates for their workforce to avoid unvaccinated workers’ quitting.
Consumer trade group asks Biden for clarity on vaccination mandate
Inbound flights of Afghan refugees to the US will remain suspended for at least another week, a White House spokeswoman said after 4 cases of measles were discovered among recently arrived Afghans. The flights, which were first halted on Fri, “will remain paused for at least 7 additional days,” said principal deputy press sectary Karine Jean-Pierre. A White House official later clarified that this meant a week from Mon, not a week from last Fri. Measles is a highly contagious virus that can be spread through coughing or sneezing. In 2000, the Centers for Disease Control declared that measles was no longer being transmitted among Americans. The Afghans who were diagnosed with measles “are being housed separately in accordance with public health guidelines, and the CDC has begun full contact tracing,” Jean-Pierre added. The tens of thousands of Afghan refugees who are currently housed on US army bases are being administered “critical immunizations including [measles, mumps and rubella],” continued Jean-Pierre. “We will soon begin vaccinating Afghans for MMR while they are still overseas,” she added. All of those arriving as part of Operation Allies Welcome are required to be vaccinated for the measles as a condition of entry. It was unclear precisely how many US-bound Afghans remained at the dozens of American & allied military bases around the world that agreed to take in refugees during the massive airlift in the last 2 weeks of Aug. By the end of Sep, the US anticipates it will admit approximately 65K refugees thru Operation Allies Welcome.
Afghan evacuee flights to the U.S. will be halted for a week after measles cases
Gold futures ended higher, but failed to reclaim the $1800-an-ounce threshold as the $ kicked off the week with a firm tone. Strength in the $ is likely the main reason gold touched the support zone of $1790 an ounce. Gold for Dec rose $2 to settle at $1794 an ounce, with prices trading as low as $1784 & as high as $1800 during the session. Traders appeared to be positioning themselves in preparation for the Aug US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading due tomorrow.
Gold ends higher, but strength in the dollar keeps prices below $1,800 an ounce
Oil futures climbed, with US benchmark prices settling above $70 for the first time in nearly 6 weeks, & natural-gas futures rallied by 6%, supported by a slow recovery in Gulf of Mexico energy production in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida. Gulf of Mexico output has been slow to come back after Ida made landfall on the Louisiana Gulf Coast on Aug 29. The Bureau of Safety & Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said 44% of Gulf of Mexico oil output, equal to 793K barrels a day of production, remained shut in. The BSEE estimated that more than 52% of natural-gas output in the Gulf was also shut in. The National Hurricane Center warned that a tropical storm will likely lead to heavy rainfall for portions of the Texas & Louisiana costs thru the middle of the week & may result in “life-threatening flash and urban flooding.” West Texas Intermediate crude for Oct rose 73¢ 1.1%, to settle at $70.45 a barrel, the highest front-month contract finish since Aug 3. Nov Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 59¢ (0.8%) at $73.51 a barrel — the highest settlement since Jul 30. US oil production, following the damage caused by Hurricane Ida to infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, has dropped by about 1.4M barrels a day since late Aug. Oil remained higher after OPEC boosted its forecast for growth in crude demand next year. OPEC now expects demand to grow by 4.2M barrels a day next year, up nearly 900K barrels a day from its previous forecast. World oil demand is estimated at 101M barrels a day in 2022, exceeding pre-pandemic levels, OPEC said..
Sellers trimmed the early advance in the PM. But buyers returned in the last hour, preserving much of the early gains. The stock market is still overbought after its recent decline. Numerous dark clouds are in the sky & stocks may be playing defense for awhile. The consumer price index will get a lot of attention tomorrow.
Dow Jones Industrials
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