Monday, September 27, 2021

Markets rise cautiously while Treasury yields keep climbing

Dow rose 71 (almost 200 below early highs), advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ slid 77.  The MLP index jumped 5+ to the 184s & the REIT index fell 4+ to the 453s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continued to be sold.  Oil gained 1+ to the 75s & gold was about even at 1750 (more on both below).

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Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, discussed the impact of Biden's border policies on the country as he joins 25 governors in calling for a "constructive" meeting with the pres.  

GOV. ASA HUTCHINSON: We want it to be a constructive meeting, first of all, where we're looking at ideas and we are not simply complaining about what's happening at the border, but we have constructive policy suggestions for him, which is to reinforce, reinstate some of the policies that were in place. We need to put more resources there. We need to back up our border patrol. And we're emphasizing that this is not just a national issue, but it is each state.  These are governors that have signed this letter from Arizona to Massachusetts, and it impacts our states whenever you have 10,000 [migrants] that are released, which is an extraordinary number, that's a burden on services, on our health care system or our worker system. And it obviously is an enticement for others to come, as you just pointed out… This has to end. A stronger statement needs to be made. We want to be of assistance to accomplish that.

GOP governors demand Biden meeting over border crisis

Dr Scott Gottlieb said he believes vaccinating children against Covid is a crucial step in changing the way many Americans view the coronavirus going forward.  “I think the reason why a lot of people are overestimating the risk of coronavirus, or are still worried about it even if they’re vaccinated ... is because the kids are still vulnerable,” the former Food & Drug Administration commissioner said.  “Once adults are able to vaccinate their kids, the anxiety about getting a breakthrough infection — knowing that you’re probably not going to get very sick, your odds of getting very sick are very low if you’re vaccinated, but you could bring it back into the house — I think that’s going to start to resolve,” he added.  Gottlieb acknowledged the process will be a “slow evolution,” especially after the highly transmissible delta variant has caused a surge in new Covid infections, hospitalizations & deaths in recent months.  “We’ve just spent a year, year and a half, trying to prevent every single infection. We’re going to evolve to a place where this is an endemic virus where this becomes a way of life, or a fact of life, if you will. It’s going to be an evolution. It’s not going to happen overnight,”  Gottlieb said, stressing that simply vaccinating US adults is not enough for the psychological transition to fully occur.  “It’s going to be when we can vaccinate the children, when the prevalence declines, when the hospitalizations and deaths start to decline, and they will. They will on the back end of this delta wave,” he continued.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb: Vaccines for kids a key to turning tide in Covid pandemic

German business leaders have voiced relief after the country's federal election results quashed the possibility of the next gov having a strong left-leaning slant.  Preliminary results indicated that the center-left Social Democratic Party had gained the largest share of the vote, edging out current Chancellor Angela Merkel's right-leaning bloc of the Christian Democratic Union & Christian Social Union.  The Green Party & the liberal Free Democratic Party are projected to have gained 14.8% & 11.5% of the vote, respectively, effectively rendering them kingmakers with all eyes now on what promises to be a prolonged period of coalition negotiations.  Both SPD leader & current Finance Minister Olaf Scholz & CDU-CSU candidate Armin Laschet will seek alliances, with another coalition between the parties looking improbable.  A weak showing for the left-wing Die-Linke party, which is projected to have secured less than 5% of the vote, has eliminated the possibility of a coalition that would lurch the country’s economic policy to the left.  This development has reassured business leaders both in Germany & abroad.

German business cheers election result which rules out jolt to the left

Gold futures eked out a modest gain, for a 2nd session in a row, as Treasury yields strengthened but eased off the session's highs.  Investors continued to react to the Federal Reserve's signaling that it will taper purchases of billions in gov debt & mortgage-related bonds as the US economy recovers from COVID-19.  Dec gold edged up chump change to settle at $1752 an ounce following another chump change increase on Fri.  Today's trade for precious metals comes against the backdrop of a rise in yields, with the 10-year benchmark Treasury note up at 1.475%, though down from highs above 1.513% — the highest rate since the start of Jul.  The longer-date 30-year Treasury bond touched highs above a psychologically significant level at 2%.  Gold prices modest support even as data today revealed that US orders for durable goods climbed by 1.8% last month.  The forecast called for a 0.6% increase.  The increase in business orders was somewhat exaggerated last month, however, with bookings up a scant 0.2% if transportation is excluded.  Higher rates for gov debt can compete with precious metals which don’t offer a coupon.  Anticipation of a reduction of the Fed's purchases of $80B in Treasuries & $40B in mortgage-backed securities, in a process referred to as tapering, has put pressure on demand for Treasuries, pushing yields higher.  Bond yields & prices move in the opposite direction.  However, likely capping any potential declines for bullion are worries about the outlook for Evergrande, which was blamed for roiling global markets last week.  Reports indicate now that the company which has some $300B in debts, has failed to make key payments due last week, with a further slug of its debt obligations coming due soon.

Gold prices end modestly higher for a second straight session

Prices for US & global benchmark crude ended at their highest settlements in almost 3 years, as oil prices continued to rally on the back of tight supplies & strengthening demand.  Nov Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $1.47 (1.9%) at $79.56 a barrel.  Dec Brent, the most actively traded contract, was up $1.48 (1.9%) at $78.71 a barrel.  Nov West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.45 (1.9%) to $75.43 a barrel.  Both front-month WTI & Brent crude contracts were poised to settle at their highest levels since Oct 2018.  At the same time, global oil demand is back to converging to pre-COVID levels.  Traffic congestion in China quickly recovered after a summer dip.  The delta-driven decline in global flights was smaller than had initially feared. 

Oil prices at a nearly 3-year high as natural-gas futures jump 11%

Besides all the goings on in DC, investors are anxious to see that the Fed will have to say after its meeting concludes on Wed.  Some degree of bond purchases is widely expected & interest rates on Treasuries have been rising in anticipation.  The Dow was over 35K in early trading, but sellers took it below 34.9K at the close.  GDP forecasts for Q3 & Q4 have been scaling back.  The virus keeps fighting & there have been multiple inefficiencies in the economy.  The Dow has not been able to rise above 35K for several months.

Dow Jones Industrials








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