Thursday, September 2, 2021

Markets rise after jobless claims set new pandemic-era lows

Dow climbed 147, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 46.  The MLP index jumped 3+ to the 182s & the REIT index was off 2+ to the 478s.  Junk bond funds edged lower & Treasuries inched higher in price.  Oil advanced 1+ to go over 70 & gold was off 1 to 1814.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil70.29
+1.70+2.5%












GC=FGold   1,808.80
 -7.20 -0.4%











 

 




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The number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims last week fell to a pandemic-era low as supplemental unemployment benefits are set to expire.  The Labor Dept said that 340K Americans filed for first-time jobless benefits last week, down 14K from the prior week, the lowest since Mar 2020.  The forecast expected 345K first-time filings.  Continuing claims, meanwhile, declined to a pandemic low of 2.7M from a downwardly revised 2.9M the week prior.  The forecast called for 2.8M filings.  Almost 12.2M people received some form of unemployment assistance, an increase of more than 178K from the previous week.  That was less than ½ of the 29.7M that filed a year earlier but well above the 2M in each week prior to the pandemic.  The decline in filings comes as the $300 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits is set to expire this week.  About ½ of the states ended the additional payments early.

Jobless claims fall to pandemic-era low with some boosted benefits set to expire

Mounting inflationary pressures held back nonresidential construction spending in Jul, according to an Associated Builders & Contractors (ABC) analysis of Census Bureau data.  Nonresidential construction spending edged up 0.1% in Jul to $787B but was negative when adjusted for inflation.  Spending fell on a monthly basis in 6 of 16 subcategories & was unchanged in 3 categories.  Total nonresidential spending was down 4.2% from the year prior.  "The nonresidential construction spending numbers are meaningfully worse than they initially appear," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.  "Higher materials prices and worsening skills shortages represent primary culprits," he added.  "Many project owners are delaying projects due to elevated construction service delivery costs."  Construction input prices were 23.1% higher in Jul than the year prior as the combination of a rebounding economy, supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19, stimulus measures & labor shortages sent costs soaring.  Last month, prices for steel mill products shot up 10.8%, iron & steel prices climbed 7.8% & natural gas surged 13.5%.  Those products have seen respective price increases of 109%, 89% & 147% over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Prices for other input costs, including fabricated structural metal products and lumber, were also sharply higher compared with year-ago levels.  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at his Jackson Hole symposium speech last week said inflation at these levels is a "cause for concern" but reiterated the central bank's belief that the current pressures are temporary.

Construction dented by inflation

General Motors (GM) is once again significantly cutting production at its North American plants due to the semiconductor chip shortage, signaling the global parts problem remains a serious issue for the automotive industry.  The automaker said that it's adding or extending downtimes at 8 plants in the US, Canada & Mexico.  Most of the new cuts are for 2 weeks, while production of its Silverado 1500 & Sierra 1500 full-size pickups in Indiana & Mexico is expected to resume after a week of downtime on Sep 13.  Other vehicles impacted by the new production cuts range from its Chevrolet & GMC midsize pickups & vans in Missouri to the Chevrolet Trailblazer in Mexico & crossover production across North America.  “Although the situation remains complex and very fluid, we remain confident in our team’s ability to continue finding creative solutions to minimize the impact on our highest-demand and capacity-constrained vehicles,” the company added.  The stock rose 24¢.
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GM to significantly cut North American vehicle production due to chip shortage

The jobless claims data was expected & should show more modest declines in the coming weeks.  During the "good old days," the numbers were slightly above 200K+, not much lower than the current number.  The unemployment rate reported tomorrow is expected at 5.2%, a little under than the 5.4% in Jul.  The Fed considers 4.1% to be a full employment number.  The effects of high inflation are largely being ignored by investors.  Next week, when vacations are over, can bring changes in the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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