Dow shot up 576, advancers over decliners about 10-1 & NAZ surged 446. The MLP index gained 4+ to the 177s & the REIT index jumped 7+ to the 488s (record territory). Junk bond funds traded higher & Treasuries slid lower in price. Oil recovered 3+ to the 72s & gold added 4 to 1784.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
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The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in Oct, falling from a record high as exports surged, gov data showed. The Commerce Dept said the gap between what the US buys from other countries & what it sells to them plunged by 17.6% to $67.1B. That's a $14.3B drop from Sep, when the trade deficit hit a record $81.4B. It marked the first time since Jul that the trade deficit shrank. Exports soared 8.1% to $224B– the highest on record – as some congestion in ports & warehouses cleared. The increase was boosted by stronger outbound shipments of industrial supplies like crude oil. Imports, meanwhile, rose 0.9% to $291B, the highest monthly total on record as Americans continued to buy more foreign-made goods like cars, cellphones & industrial supplies. The overall trade deficit thru Oct surged by $162B, a 29.7% increase compared to the year-ago period. The surge reflects pent-up consumer demand for goods after the coronavirus pandemic forced large swaths of the economy to shut down last year. Exports increased $315B (17.9%) while imports increased $477B (20.7%). The US goods & services deficit with China hit $28.3B in Oct – down from the $36.5B recorded in the previous month. Exports increased $2.8B to $13.8B, while imports decreased $400M to $422B. Experts say that as COVID-19 cases continue to fall & supply-chain disruptions begin to abate, the US trade deficit should begin to improve – though it may remain elevated thru the end of the year.
US trade deficit shrinks in October as exports rebound
The politics of small business owners is similar to the politics of the majority of Americans in one major way: it's become hyper-partisan. But as Pres Biden's approval rating among entrepreneurs slips to an all-time low & Main Street confidence reverses to near its all-time low set Q1 when Biden's presidency began, it's not only Reps who are downbeat about the pre's handling of the economy. The latest CNBC|Momentive Small Business Survey shows a decline in small business confidence & Biden's approval rating, with respondents who identify as independents primarily responsible for the downshifting & concerns about inflation a major influence over the data. Concerns about the labor shortage remain high, but even more small business owners are seeing higher prices & supply chain disruptions, according to the survey: 75% of small business owners say they are experiencing higher supply costs, up from 70% in Q3 & 58% are experiencing supply chain disruptions, up from 55%. Inflation tops the list of concerns, with 34% of small business owners citing it as the biggest risk to their business, followed by supply chain disruptions (23%) & Covid (17%). The survey was conducted Nov 10-16 among 2078 self-identified small business owners, which was before news of the omicron variant. Just 34% of small business owners now approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as pres, down from 40% in Q3 (it had been 43% in Q1). Most of that decrease was among independents: 33% now approve of Biden, down from 51% in Q3. Among Reps (9%) & Dems (89%), there was minimal movement in approval qtr over qtr. Small business confidence remains extremely partisan. The Small Business Confidence Index for Dems is 62, versus 35 for Reps. Twice as many Reps as Dems who own small businesses (40% vs. 20%) say inflation is their top concern. But just 22% of small business owners say the Biden Administration has been good for small businesses, while 62% say it has been bad for small businesses. And among independents, 59% say Biden has been bad for small businesses, while 60% of independent small business owners say Biden has been bad for the economy.
Latest sign of President Biden’s inflation problem is on Main Street
Treasury yields were higher, as concerns eased slightly around the omicron Covid variant. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose more than 1 basis point to 1.45% & the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond added less than a basis point to 1.762%. Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%. Investors are keeping an eye on further developments around the omicron variant. White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr Anthony Fauci said that the initial data on the variant is “encouraging,” though he cautioned that more information is needed. In addition, investors are also monitoring the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy. Comments by Fed officials suggest the central bank is likely to decide to double the pace of its taper to $30B a month at its Dec meeting next week. Initial discussions could also begin as soon as the Dec meeting about when to raise interest rates & by how much next year. US Q3 productivity fell 5.2% in the 3rd qtr for its biggest quarterly drop since 1960, the Labor Dept reported. That was compared to the estimate of a 5% drop.
Treasury yields edge higher as omicron variant fears ease
Back to back surges in the Dow, don't see that to often. And tech stocks are in demand on NAZ. Again, all news is thought of as good while negative news is ignored. However economic problems which are numerous have not evaporated & higher interest rates are around the corner.
Dow Jones Industrials
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