Friday, December 3, 2021

Markets slip lower as job growth disappoints

Dow dropped 186, decliners over advancers about 3-1 & NAZ nosedived 338.  The MLP index was off 1 to 173 & the REIT index declined 4+ to 471.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries were in demand.  Oil went up 1+ to the 67s & gold rose 8 to 1770.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil68.45
+1.95 +2.9%


















GC=FGold   1,770.00
 +7.30 +0.4%











 

 




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US job growth significantly undershot expectations in Nov, suggesting that difficulty in attracting new workers is weighing on the labor market's recovery from the pandemic, even as COVID-19 cases dissipate nationwide.  The Labor Dept said in its monthly payroll report showed that payrolls in Nov rose by just 210K, well below the 550K jobs forecast.  It marked the slowest job growth this year.  The unemployment rate (which is calculated based on a separate survey) dropped more than expected to 4.2% from 4.6% — the lowest level since the pandemic began.  The labor had been gaining momentum after a delta-induced slowdown over the summer, but the latest figure marks a significant drop from Oct's upwardly revised number of 546K & Sep's upwardly revised 379K.  There are still about 3.9M fewer jobs than there were last Feb, before the crisis began.  The report wasn't all bad news, however:  The labor force participation rate rose to 61.8% & the survey of households offered a brighter outlook, pointing to an employment gain of 1.13M for the month. The jobs report comprises of 2 surveys – one based on employers and the other of households.  The job growth stumble comes before the emergence of the newly identified omicron variant of COVID-19, which could jeopardize the global economy's recovery.  There is still a lack of clarity over how dangerous the new variant is, including whether it is more transmissible or capable of causing more severe illness.  Early evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection.  Leisure & hospitality, one of the hardest-hit sectors that has become a bellwether of sorts for the economy's recovery, saw a gain of just 23K new jobs last month.  The sector, which includes bars, restaurants & hotels, has recovered about 7M of the jobs it lost during the pandemic, but remains about 1.3M below its Feb 2020 level.  A mixed-bag of industries accounted for growth last month.  Substantial gains took place in professional and business services (90K), transportation & warehousing (50K) & construction (31K).

US hiring stumbles as economy adds far fewer jobs than expected

Senate lawmakers voted to approve a bill that funds the gov thru Feb 18, avoiding a gov shutdown with roughly 24 hours to spare despite a partisan clash regarding Pres Biden's federal vaccine mandate.  The Senate voted 69-28 in favor of the continuing resolution, which approves gov funding at the prior year's levels until a new bipartisan agreement is reached.  The resolution includes $7B in new funding to support Afghan refugees.  The bill now proceeds to Biden's desk for final approval.  Moderate Dem Sen Joe Manchin was among the senators who voted in favor  of the continuing resolution.  "In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and as the new Omicron variant emerges, I will not vote to shut down the government for purely political reasons," Manchin said.

Senate passes funding bill despite vaccine mandate flap

Covid vaccinations spiked over Wed & Thurs as a rising number of states confirmed their first cases of the highly mutated omicron variant.  Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) data shows nearly 2.2M shots in arms were reported to the agency over a 24-hour period ending yesteray, the largest single-day total since May.  Roughly ½ of those shots were booster doses, White House Covid-19 data director Cyrus Shahpar wrote in a tweet, & nearly 1/3 were first doses (people getting their very first shots).  4.8M shots were reported Mon, but that figure represents data from a handful of days over the long Thanksgiving weekend.  About 70% of Americans have received at least one shot & 21% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot.  Vaccinations peaked at around 3.4M per day, according to a 7-day average, in Apr after the shots first became available & saw another bump with the onset of the delta variant, nearing an average of 1M shots per day in the late summer months.  Vaccinations were on the rise again heading into Thanksgiving & crossed the 1.5M average shots per day mark in mid-Nov, many of which have been booster doses.  The omicron variant had been detected in 5 states as of yesterday.  The delta variant remains the dominant strain in the country, accounting for more than 99% of all new cases & pushing the number of Covid hospitalizations higher once again.

U.S. Covid vaccinations spike as several states confirm omicron cases

The jobs data was not welcomed by investors.  It shows the recovery is stumbling while it has to deal with a variety of headwinds.  The stock market remains on defense.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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