Friday, December 31, 2021

Markets were little changed as the year closes out

Dow slid back 37, advcancers & decliners were essentialy even & NAZ was off 32.  The MLP index stayed near 176 & the REIT index added 2+ to the 512s for another record.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries saw more buying, but the 10 year Treasury yield held above 1.5%.  Oil dropped about 1 to the low 76s & gold went up 9 to 1823.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil 76.14
   -0.85-1.1%
























GC=FGold   1,822.60
  +8.50+0.5%






























 

 




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The new year could be a pivotal one for tech policy — if Congress can move to act before the 2022 midterm season kicks into high gear.  Proposals to update competition law, establish online privacy rights & protect kids from harm on the internet have broad bipartisan support.  But persisting differences on the best way to craft those laws as well as the presence of many other pressing legislative priorities have so far kept many significant bills from advancing.  With dozens of bills drafted & renewed outrage from lawmakers over the potential harmful impacts of internet platforms, there could just be enough momentum to advance some of the proposals.  And in the meantime, gov agencies are likely to forge ahead with renewed regulations.  There’s a lot going on in antitrust that could come to a head in 2022.  That spans legislation, as well as possible regulations & enforcement actions from the Federal Trade Commission & Dept of Justice Antitrust Division.  A package of tech-focused antitrust bills has already crossed a major hurdle in the House, advancing with bipartisan votes out of the Judiciary committee.  But even then, lawmakers expressed reservations about the bills & companion legislation in the Senate must still clear that initial hurdle.

2022 will be the ‘do or die’ moment for Congress to take action against Big Tech

Treasury yields were little changed, the last day of 2021, as the 10-year held above the 1.5% threshold.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dipped less than a basis point to 1.51% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was marginally lower at 1.919%.  Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.  The 10-year yield started the year at 0.91% & hit a high of 1.776% in Mar.  Treasury yields have moved throughout the year amid concerns about inflation & as the Federal Reserve eases off its pandemic-era easy monetary policy.  The central bank in Jan plans to accelerate the reduction of its monthly bond purchases. The Fed then expects to start raising interest rates after tapering concludes.  Many market strategists expect Treasury yields to creep higher in 2022.

U.S. Treasury yields are little changed in final day of 2021

Congressional Dems will return next year & try to check a few long-floundering items off their to-do list before the 2022 midterms consume DC.  The next few months in the Capitol could shape the economic health of US households for years to come.  The scope of Dems' accomplishments could also play a role in whether they hold control of one or both chambers of Congress for the 2nd half of Pres Biden's term.  The Build Back Better Act weighs the most heavily on Dems' minds.  The $1.75T investment in social & climate programs hit a wall this month when Sen Joe Manchin, said he would oppose it.  “It would be really, really sad as someone who worked really hard on this, if we were not successful,” Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders said after Manchin announced his stance this month.  “But it would be even sadder if the American people said, ‘these people stand for nothing. Not only can’t they get anything done, they don’t believe in anything.’”  Though Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has vowed to bring the bill up for a vote next month, it is all but doomed.  Even so, Dems hope to revive it in some form that could win support from every member of their Senate caucus.  The congressional tasks that hold wide-ranging economic implications do not end with Build Back Better.  The Senate will hold votes on whether to confirm Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell & Governor Lael Brainard – Biden's choice for vice chair – to lead the central bank as it tries to tackle an economic recovery & the highest inflation in decades.  Congress will have to pass a gov funding bill by mid-Feb to prevent a gov shutdown that could lead to furloughs of federal workers.  In addition, the Senate & House will work to resolve disagreements on a bill that would pile a qtr of a T $s into research & development to catch up with Chinese investments in technology.

Democrats look to salvage tattered legislative agenda as they face 2022 midterm elections

Traders are keeping busy twiddling their thumbs.  Not much else to do today.  Today's excitement in trading comes from buying gold & Treasuries.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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