Thursday, December 2, 2021

Markets rebounds as omicron fears ease

Dow shot up 465, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 but NAZ was off 2.  The MLP index recovered 2+ to the 172s & the REIT index bounced back 8+ to 470.  Junk bond funds fluctuated following recent selling & Treasuries were slightly higher.  Oil had limited buying bringing it up to the 66s & gold dropped 17 to 1766.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil65.23
   -0.34 -0.5%
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GC=FGold   1,768.50 
-15.80 -0.9%




















 

 




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The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week rose off the lowest levels since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.  The Labor Dept reported that applications for last week climbed to 222K from a revised 194K a week earlier, versus the 240K forecast.  Continuing claims, the number of Americans who are consecutively receiving unemployment aid, fell to 1.9M, a decrease of 107K from the previous week.  That is the lowest level for insured unemployment since Mar 14, 2020, when it was 1.77M.   The report shows that roughly 2.3M Americans were collecting jobless benefits, an increase of 22K from the previous week; by comparison, just a little over one year ago, an estimated 20.7M Americans were receiving benefits.  Claims have continually declined as the economy recovers from the pandemic & Americans venture out to travel, shop & eat.  Businesses have struggled to keep up with the demand, however & have reported difficulties in onboarding new employees.  The report suggests that companies are making an effort to retain the workers they already have.  The Labor Dept reported earlier this month that there were 10.4M open jobs at the end of Sep.  Though little changed from the end of Aug, it's still a staggeringly high figure; there are about 3M more open jobs than unemployed Americans looking for work.

Jobless claims climb to 220,000 from half-century low

Funding for the gov runs out just before midnight tomorrow & Congress is not even close to passing a bill to avert a shutdown.  "The vaccine mandate is going to shut down our businesses in this country, which is going to further disrupt" the economy, Sen Steve Daines said.   He's one of a handful of Rep senators demanding that a continuing resolution includes a provision to withhold funding from the enforcement of COVID-19 vaccine mandates by the Biden administration.  "If it was a choice between shutting down the government for a couple of days versus shutting down businesses, better off to shut down the government," Daines added.  Sen. Mike Lee is another one of the Rep senators demanding Congress block vaccine mandates in exchange for funding the gov.  Most other Reps are against shutting down the gov over vaccine mandates.  Part of the reason a shutdown appears to be imminent is that Congress didn't come to a deal on what the continuing resolution would look like until a few hours ago.  House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Rosa DeLauro announced the House will consider it later today.

Congress barrels toward govt shutdown as handful of GOP senators hold out

OPEC & non-OPEC oil producers (OPEC+) decided to stick to a previously agreed upon plan of hiking output by 400K barrels per day in Jan.  However the alliance said in a statement that “the meeting remains in session,” meaning they can “make immediate adjustments” should the current market conditions shift.  In what was a hotly anticipated meeting, the energy alliance convened via videoconference to determine whether to stick with its plan to release more oil into the market or to restrain supply amid fears over the omicron Covid-19 variant.  Other issues on the table included a US-led release of strategic reserves from crude-importing nations & Iran's possible re-entry into oil markets.  Intl benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $68.01, down 1.2%, while US West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $64.70, for a loss of 1.3%.  Energy analysts broadly had expected OPEC+ to push ahead with its current plan to hike monthly output by 400K barrels per day.  However, some had questioned whether the group may be tempted to take a pause to assess the market following a period of heightened price volatility. 

Oil dips as OPEC+ sticks to January output hike

The Dow dropped 2500 (see below) in recent weeks.  It is entitled to a bargain hunting rally.  However fundamental problems remain starting with the new virus variant & funding is needed for the federal gov..  The jobs report for Nov will be reported tomorrow & it may be unexciting.  And oil has tumbled 20 from its high just a few weeks ago.  The bulls are on defense.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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