Monday, December 27, 2021

Markets rise on improving economic indicators

Dow went up 215, advancers over decliners 5-2  & NAZ advanced 178.  The MLP index was up 1+ to 174 & the REIT index gained 2+ to the 497s for another record.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries saw more buying, reducing yields.  Oil rose 1+ to the 75s & gold added 1 to 1813.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil73.87
   +0.08 _0.1%


















GC=FGold  1,812.20
   +0.50
+0.0%




















 

 




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More than 2M people flew thru American airports yesterday despite hundreds of canceled flights & fears about the new coronavirus omicron variant, as the 2021 holiday travel season continues to see a significant recovery from pandemic lows.  "TSA screened 2,070,554 individuals yesterday at checkpoints around the country," the Transportation Security Agency (TSA) tweeted.  Yesterday was the 3rd time in 5 days & the 7th time since Dec 16, that the TSA screened more than 2M passengers in a single day.  The 2.1M passengers screened represented an approximate 83% increase from the number of travelers on the same day last year.   Still, the 2021 holiday travel season is falling short of the prepandemic 2019 benchmarks for the industry – the TSA screened 2.5M people on Dec 26, 2 years ago.  Dec 22 was the only day so far this month when 2021's travel numbers outstripped 2019.  Christmas Day travel numbers were down nearly 1M between 2019 & 2021.  This year's holiday travel is also being handicapped by hundreds of flight cancellations from major US airlines & fears about the new omicron variant that was discovered in South Africa last month.

2M+ Americans flew Sunday despite canceled flights, omicron fears

Treasury yields dipped slightly after the long holiday weekend as investors assessed the omicron threat.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note eased 1.2 basis points to 1.481% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond ticked down 1.8 basis points to 1.89%.  Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.  Bond markets were closed on Fri for the Christmas holiday.  Investors have been taking encouragement from some positive news on the omicron Covid variant.  A study from South Africa, published last week, indicated that people infected with the omicron coronavirus variant were 80% less likely to be admitted to hospital than if they contracted other strains.  Elsewhere, studies from Scotland & England appear to back up the South Africa findings.  US infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci said that cases of Covid-19 are likely going to keep surging as the omicron variant rapidly spreads across the globe.  “Every day it goes up and up. The last weekly average was about 150,000 and it likely will go much higher,” Fauci added.  Driving the surge is the omicron variant, which took over as the dominant strain earlier this month.  A slew of economic data on Thurs showed a stable economy with improving labor & spending trends, but inflation at high levels.  The Federal Reserve's closely watched core personal consumption expenditures index rose 0.6% in Nov from the month prior.  Core PCE rose 4.7% year-over-year in Nov, higher than the 4.5% rate expected.

U.S. Treasury yields dip slightly as investors weigh omicron’s impact on growth

Cases of Covid-19 are likely going to keep surging as the omicron variant rapidly spreads across the globe, US infectious disease expert Dr Fauci.  “Every day it goes up and up. The last weekly average was about 150,000 and it likely will go much higher,” Fauci continued.  As of Thurs, before the holiday weekend disrupted Covid trackers, the US had reported more than 51M cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.  The US also topped 800K deaths from the disease in mid-Dec.  Driving the surge is the omicron variant, which took over as the dominant strain a week ago.  While the strain has proven to be highly transmissible, studies are starting to indicate it is less severe in terms of hospitalizations.  Still, Fauci stressed now is not the time to “get complacent.”  “If you have many, many, many more people with a less level of severity, that might kind of neutralize the positive effect of having less severity when you have so many more people,” Fauci added.  “And we’re particularly worried about those who are in that unvaccinated class. Those are the most vulnerable ones when you have a virus that is extraordinarily effective in getting to people and infecting them the way omicron is.”

Fauci says Covid cases will go much higher, warns against getting complacent

This semi-holiday week is expected to be quiet.  The economy is doing reasonable given all that is going.  However inflation is a nagging problem & the virus keeps fighting in its war.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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