Dow dropped 105, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ slid back 14. The MLP index went up 1+ to the 176s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 489s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were weak. Oil was steady in the high 72s following its 2 day rally & gold was off 3 to 1781.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
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The luxury homebuilder reported quarterly adjusted EPS of $3.02, topping the expectation for $2.49. Revenue for the qtr was up 18.2% to $2.95B from a year ago, also beating the estimate for $2.88B. "We
are very pleased with our fourth-quarter results, which cap an
extraordinary year of record revenues, earnings, contracts and backlog
value for Toll Brothers," said CEO Douglas Yearley. "In the fourth quarter, we grew home sales revenues
by 18%, achieved an adjusted gross margin of 25.9%, and nearly doubled
our pre-tax income and earnings per share from one year ago." The company expects to deliver 11,250-12,000 units
in the full year at an average delivered price of $875-895K. In fiscal 2021, the company said it delivered 9986 homes, bringing home sales revenues to $8.43B. "Demand remains very strong. The housing market continues to benefit
from solid fundamentals, including favorable demographics, pent-up
demand from over a decade of underproduction of new homes, low mortgage
rates, a tight resale market, and permanent changes to the way Americans
view life, work and home," added Yearley. "We believe these trends will
continue to drive strong demand for our first-time, move-up and active
adult communities well into the future." The stock rose 80¢.
If you would like to learn more about TOL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TOL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Toll Brothers sees 20% growth in 2022 amid strong demand
Americans plan to spend with gusto this holiday season despite concerns about the economy & inflation & worries that supply bottlenecks might delay the arrival of their gifts. The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds that individuals, on average, plan to spend $1004 on gifts, up 13% from the pandemic-depressed number last year & the highest number since 2018. The survey of 800 adults across the country found 15% plan to spend more this year, up from 11% in 2020 & 35% plan to spend less, down from 39%. “I think it will be a good Christmas,” said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research Associates, the Dem pollsters for the survey. “People will be spending and consumers are willing, eager and mostly able to get out of their houses and back into stores to spend those dollars.” Yet the survey clearly shows that the current issues of supply chain problems, inflation & overall negative views on the economy are creeping into Christmas cheer. Among those who are spending more, 1/3 say it’s because they have more money, a ¼ say it’s because they have more people to buy gifts for & 16% cite higher prices. Among those spending less, 25% say it's because the economy is in bad shape, 21% cite higher prices or trouble paying bills & 17% want to save money. Meanwhile, 36% say they started shopping earlier than normal because they were afraid they might not get their gifts in time & 25% are concerned gifts might come late. “I’d say the holiday spending numbers in this poll are relatively solid,” said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Rep pollsters for the survey. “But it doesn’t get rid of the cost of living stressors that Americans are under.” The survey found that inflation has catapulted ahead of Covid to become the top issue of concern in the country. Last qtr, the 2 issues were tied. Meanwhile, 41% of the public believe the economy will get worse in the next year, a modest improvement from last qtr, but still a largely pessimistic number & up 7 points from a year ago. The survey found that ½ of Americans say they will do most or all of their shopping online, a decline of 5 points from 2020, but still 5 points above the pre-pandemic level. This could be initial evidence that some of the pandemic boost to online shopping may endure. One advantage brick-&-mortar stores might have this Christmas: People are less afraid to go out in public compared to last year. The survey, which was taken from Dec1-4 after news of the omicron variant became public, found a sharp drop in concern about going to malls, boarding planes & visiting big American cities. A year ago, 60% of the public said they were concerned about going to concerts or theme parks or sporting events. That percentage has now fallen to just 34%. The least concern of all when it comes to Covid: visiting small businesses not in shopping malls.
Americans plan robust spending this holiday season, but worry about inflation
The House took a first step toward preventing a possible default on US debt. The chamber passed a bill that would allow the Senate to raise the country's borrowing limit with a simple majority vote. Lawmakers attached the provision to legislation that would prevent automatic Medicare cuts set to take place at the end of the year. The measure will head to the Senate. It will need 10 Rep votes to pass & go to Pres Biden's desk. Once the pres signs the bill, the House & Senate can hold separate votes to raise the debt ceiling with a simple majority — or without Rep support. GOP leaders have said the party will not join Dems in hiking the borrowing limit, but as part of a new strategy, Reps also are not expected to block their counterparts from preventing a default. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has estimated the US will hit its debt ceiling on Dec 15, raising the threat of a first default. America's failure to pay its obligations could ravage the global economy & stock markets. Earlier, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he expects the Medicare & debt ceiling bill will have enough GOP support to get thru the Senate.
House takes key step toward raising the debt ceiling as deadline draws closer
All market rallies come to an end, although the bulls are happy to see the bleeding has stopped. As pointed out above, hopes are high for a strong retail holiday season. Of course, the sloppy ways Congress handles massive sums of money seems to begging for problems down the road. Hope for the best,
Dow Jones Industrials
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