Tuesday, December 28, 2021

Markets edge lower while traders assess Covid news

Dow went up 95, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ fell 89.  The MLP index fluctuated in the 176s & the REIT index added 2+ to the 505s.  Junk bond funds saw a little selling & Treasuries were flattish in listless trading.  Oil was up in the 75s although below us best levels & gold was off 1 to 1807 (more on both below).

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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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People infected with the heavily mutated omicron variant of Covid-19 may have increased immune protection against delta, a new study says.  As a consequence, omicron could displace delta, according to the small study published by South African scientists this week.  The findings could have significant implications for nations such as the US where omicron infections are rapidly increasing but the delta variant, which has caused an increase in hospitalizations, is still widespread.  “These results are consistent with Omicron displacing the Delta variant, since it can elicit immunity which neutralizes Delta making re-infection with Delta less likely,” the team of scientists wrote in their findings.  If omicron displaces delta & proves more mild than past variants, “the incidence of Covid-19 severe disease would be reduced and the infection may shift to become less disruptive to individuals and society,” according to the findings.  Omicron was first identified by South Africa & Botswana in Nov.  The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.  Researchers have been publishing their findings before they are evaluated by other experts in the field due to the urgent nature of the pandemic.  The study followed 13 people, 11 of whom had been infected with the omicron variant.  7 of the participants were vaccinated: 3 people who received 2 doses of the Pfizer (PFE) & BioNTech (BNTX) vaccine & 4 who received the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shot.  The antibody response of people infected with omicron appeared to increase protection against the delta variant more than 4fold 2 weeks after the participants enrolled in the study.  Participants also showed a 14fold increase in the ability of antibodies to block omicron reinfection.  However, the scientists cautioned that it is unclear whether increased protection is due to omicron-induced antibodies, vaccination or immunity from a previous infection.  Vaccinated  individuals demonstrated stronger protection.  In the US, omicron represented 58% of sequenced Covid cases while delta represented 41% last week, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.

Omicron infection appears to protect against delta and could displace it, study finds

US home prices surged again in Oct as the housing market continues to boom in the wake of last year's coronavirus recession.  The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, climbed 18.4% in Oct from a year earlier.  The gain marked a slight deceleration from a 19.1% year-over-year increase in Sep but was about in line with what had been expected.  All 20 cities posted double-digit annual gains.  The housing market has been strong thanks to rock-bottom mortgage rates, a limited supply of homes on the market & pent-up demand from consumers locked in last year by the pandemic.  Many Americans, tired of being cooped up at home during the pandemic, are looking to trade up from apartments to homes or to bigger houses.  It remains unclear if that shift is permanent or an aberration, said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices.  “We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by a change in locational preferences as households react to the COVID pandemic,″ Lazzara said.  “More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a more permanent secular change.″⁣  Last week, mortgage rates fell — to 3.05% for the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate & 2.66% for the 15-year fixed-rate home loan.  The persistently low rates signal that credit markets appear more concerned about the omicron variant depressing economic growth than about the highest inflation rates in nearly 40 years.  The National Association of Realtors reported last week that sales of previously occupied homes rose for the 3rd straight month in Nov to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46M.

U.S. home prices surge 18.4% in October

Jan is the perfect time for a water park to reopen in Florida.  Disney World in Florida announced that after being closed due to COVID-19, it will be reopening one of its popular water parks.  The date has set to coincide with the closing of the resort's other water park, which will be receiving its annual refurbishment.  Typhoon Lagoon will reopen on Jan 2, 2022.  Disney (DIS), a Dow stock, park will be celebrating its 50th anniversary this year & Typhoon Lagoon will be included in these celebrations.  The water park closed in Mar 2020, along with the rest of Disney World due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Since then, DIS has reopened the other theme parks at the resort, including Blizzard Beach Water Park.  Typhoon Lagoon, however, remained closed throughout this entire period.  The stock rose 2.35.
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Disney World to reopen iconic water park after pandemic closure

US & Russian officials will hold security talks next month amid an alarming Russian military buildup on its shared border with Ukraine.  The Jan 10 meeting will focus on arms control agreements, NATO & Russian military activity as well as rising tensions over Ukraine.  The meeting will be held as part of the Strategic Security Dialogue that Pres Biden & Russian Pres Vladimir Putin announced during their Jun summit in Geneva.  “When we sit down to talk, Russia can put its concerns on the table, and we will put our concerns on the table with Russia’s activities as well. We will adhere to the principle of ‘nothing about our Allies and partners without our Allies and partners, including Ukraine,’” a National Security Council spokesperson said.  “There will be areas where we can make progress, and areas where we will disagree. That’s what diplomacy is about,” the spokesperson added, without indicating who from the Biden administration would lead discussions.  The spokesperson said that NATO allies will join additional talks that are slated for Jan 12 & 13.  Earlier this month, Biden & Putin spoke for 2 hours via secure video amid a backdrop of compounding national security matters.  For months, Ukraine has warned the US & European allies that thousands of Russian troops were massing along its eastern border, a development that mimics Moscow's 2014 invasion of Crimea.  The annexation of the Black Sea peninsula sparked an intl uproar & triggered a series of sanctions on Moscow.

U.S. and Russia agree to security talks on Jan. 10 amid growing tension over Ukraine

Gold futures climbed, producing the 3rd gain of the past 4 sessions for the commodity, but some firmness in the $ undercut demand for the precious metal.  Feb gold traded $2 higher to end at $1810 an ounce, a day after slipping a back a tad.  The commodity had hit an intraday peak at $1821, which would have marked the highest settlement since Nov 19, before retreating later.  Bullion, has been trading in a relatively tight range since Nov as concerns about the omicron variant of coronavirus & uncertainty around the effectiveness of policies to combat inflation have buffeted markets.  Investors, in that environment, have been mostly buying gov debt, driving yields lower.  A weaker $ has provided some support for purchasing precious metals which have traditionally been seen as a hedge against uncertainty & inflation.  However, the $ today gained some ground, putting pressure on bullion & other precious metals, even as benchmark Treasury rates remained subdued, with the exception of shorter maturities.  The 10-year Treasury note was down at 1.48% while the $ was trading about 0.1% higher to 96.195, as gauged by the ICE US Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a ½-dozen others.  Some commodity professionals are concerned that the outlook for precious metals will be hurt as the Federal Reserve moves quickly to tackle inflation by raising interest rates next year.  Projections from the Federal Reserve's last meeting earlier in Dec point to 3 benchmark interest-rate increases in 2022, after the central bank winds down its bond buying program, to try to slow inflation.

Gold futures settle higher Tuesday but off the day’s peak

US crude oil futures clinched a 5th straight gain, but finished off the highs of the session, as investors wagered that the omicron variant of coronavirus would have only limited impact on economic growth.  Low trading volumes amid the Christmas & New Year holiday also were amplifying volatility.  The rise in crude prices gained some support after the UK said that it wouldn't impose any further restrictions on consumer mobility in England as COVID infections rise, though it was reviewing the impact of the disease on hospitals.  Holiday travel has been impeded by flight cancellations resulting from COVID-related staff shortages around the globe, but the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention has reduced the recommended isolation period for people infected with COVID-19 to 5 days from 10 as recent preliminary studies have suggested the omicron variant may be more transmissible but less severe than other COVID strains.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Feb traded 41¢ (0.5%( higher to settle at $75.98 a barrel, after the US benchmark rose 2.4% yesterday.  The contract had touched an intraday high today at $76.92 before retreating.  The 5th consecutive advance for WTI matches a similar rally ended Sep 27.  Feb, the global benchmark, advanced 34¢ (0.4%) to trade at $78.94 a barrel, following a 3.2% gain a day ago.  The contract has risen in 5 of the past 6 sessions & was around its highest level since Nov 25.  Investors are watching for a meeting for  OPEC+ which is scheduled for Jan 4.  OPEC+ will assess its plans to boost daily oil production among its members to 400K bpd starting in Feb or adjust its output to factor the spread of COVID.  

U.S. oil books 5th day of gains but finishes off session’s high

Another quiet day of trading in the financial markets.  The remainder of the week should continue to be an unexciting time for stocks.  Markets will be open Fri with regular hours because it's the last day of the year.

Dow Jones Industrials








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