Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Markets rebound after private payrolls post better than expected growth

Dow jumped 425, advancers over decliners than 5-1 & NAZ shot up 231.  The MLP index went up 4+ to the 177s & the REIT index advanced 8+ to the 477s.  Junk bond funds saw buying after recent selling & Treasuries were sold in anticipation of higher interest rates.  Oil was up 2+ to the 68s & gold gained 12 to 1789.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil67.98
 +1.80 +2.7%


















GC=FGold  1,793.10
+16.60
+0.9%


















 

 




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!

US private-sector job growth ramped up in Nov even as the labor market faces one of the worst worker shortages in decades, according to the ADP National Employment Report.   Companies added 534K jobs last month, topping the 525K-job gain that had predicted.  It marked a decline from Oct, when companies added a revised 570K positions.  Leisure & hospitality, the sector hit hardest by the pandemic, accounted for the bulk of the gains, adding 136K new positions last month.  While employment in the sector – which includes bars & restaurants – is still well below the level it was about one year ago, it's been steadily hiring workers as vaccination rates have increased, business restrictions have eased & more Americans venture out to shop, eat at restaurants & travel.  Professional & business services also made up a significant number of job gains, adding 110K new positions.  It was followed by trade, transportation & utilities, which saw an increase of 78K, & education & health services, which contributed 55K.  In all, the service-producing sector contributed 424K jobs in Nov.  But the goods-producing sector also played a role in job creation, adding 110K jobs.  Manufacturing contributed 50K, while construction added 52K.  Natural resources & mining increased its payroll by 7K.  Large businesses that employ more than 500 workers saw the biggest gain last month, with payrolls rising by 277K.  Medium-sized businesses that employ 50-499 employees created 142K jobs, while small businesses added 115K positions.

US adds more than half a million jobs – despite worker shortages

Rising inflation & what can be done to combat it was discussed during the Federal Open Markets Committee's (FOMC) Nov meeting, according to its meeting minutes.  While Federal Reserve members maintained agreement that rising inflation is short-term, they stated that it's taking longer to drop than initially expected.  "Participants generally saw the current elevated level of inflation as largely reflecting factors that were likely to be transitory but judged that inflation pressures could take longer to subside than they had previously assessed," the minutes said.  If the central bank raises the federal funds rate, interest rates could be going up.  Inflation is currently rising at its fastest pace in decades, increasing 6.2% annually in Oct, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.  Now, some members of the Federal Reserve Bank are determining whether to change the current monetary policy & raise the federal funds rate sooner than expected to combat inflation pressures.  "Various participants noted that the Committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for the federal funds rate sooner than participants currently anticipated if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Committee’s objectives," the minutes stated.  Some participants suggested the current plan of tapering asset purchases by more than $120B in bond purchases each month may need to be increased by $15B per month.  This would put the Fed in a better position to raise rates.  After the Federal Reserve ends its economic stimulus & eyes a federal funds rate hike, interest rates could increase.

Fed prepared to raise interest rates if inflation continues to surge

Exxon Mobil (XOM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, outlined a corp spending plan that will double earnings & cash flow by 2027 from 2019's levels, while also reducing emissions.  The plan comes as it reevaluates its long-term strategy following the pandemic, and after a shake-up in its boardroom.  The company plans to spend $20-25B per year thru 2027.  This is higher than the $16-19B the company outlined for 2021 spending, but significantly below the $30-35B the company forecast spending annually before the pandemic took hold.  The plan allows for “flexibility to adjust to adverse market conditions.”  In Oct, XOM announced its first div hike in more than 2 years & also announced plans to begin a share repurchase program of up to $10B over the next 12-24 months.  Looking forward, the company is focusing on high-quality assets.  XOM said that more than 90% of its new upstream investments will return more than 10% even if oil trades at $35 per barrel or below.  “The restored strength of our balance sheet and improved financial outlook support accelerating investment in our industry-advantaged, high-return projects, and a growing list of financially accretive lower-emission business opportunities,” CEO Darren Woods said.  “Our strategy is designed to create shareholder value by leveraging our competitive advantages while maintaining flexibility to respond to future policy changes and technology advances associated with the energy transition.”  The stock rose 2.05.
If you would like to learn more about XOM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/XOM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Exxon forecasts doubling earnings and cash flow by 2027 while reducing emissions

The ADP jobs report was welcome news.  That has been in short supply recently.  Undoubtedly, bargain hunters are browsing.  However dark clouds remain starting with high inflation, supply problems & raising the debt ceiling along with funding gov spending which needs to be done by Fri.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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