Thursday, October 11, 2012

Early gains melted on concerns about earnings reports

Dow lost 18, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ was down 2 (hurt by another bad day for Apple).  But the Financial Index rose 1 to the 215s.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 408s & the REIT index lost a fraction in the 262s (where it's been for over 2 weeks).  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries gained with the yield on the 10 year Treasury falling 2 basis points to 1.67%.  Oil advanced after the fewest unemployment applications in 4 years & on concern that tension between Syria & Turkey will disrupt shipments from the MidEast. Gold rose $4 & still has its eyes on $1800.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.266%

U.S. 10-year

1.673%

CLX12.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 12....92.02 T...Up 0.77 (0.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Greece’s Unemployment Reaches More Than Quarter of Workforce
Photo:    Bloomberg

The unemployment rate in Greece climbed to more than a qtr of the workforce in Jul, extending its record high as the country’s 5 year recession deepened.  The jobless rate rose to 25.1% from a revised 24.8% in Jun, according to Hellenic Statistical Authority, the highest since the agency began publishing monthly data in 2004.  Greece’s recession & deepening labor slump has been exacerbated by austerity measures imposed to trim a budget deficit that was more than 5 times the area limit in 2009.  Prime Minister Samaras’s coalition gov is hashing out a €13.5B ($17.4 B) package of budget cuts for 2013 & 2014 needed to keep rescue loans from the euro area & the IMF flowing.  The € was little changed at just under $1.29 after gaining almost 6% since Aug 2, when the ECB first announced plans to purchase gov bonds of distressed nations.  Central Athens was the scene of protests earlier this week when Angela Merkel visited & thousands of citizens vented frustration over her perceived role in the country’s economic misery.  7000 police were deployed.



Spain's debt rating was cut to one level above junk by S&P, which cited euro-region peers’ backtracking on a pledge to severe the link between the sovereign & its banks as it considers a 2nd bailout. as the country was lowered 2 levels to BBB- from BBB+.   S&P assigned a negative outlook to the long-term rating & lowered the short-term sovereign level to A-3 from A-2.  The downgrade comes after Spain announced a 5th austerity package in less than a year & published details about stress tests of its banks.  S&P said gov actions will probably be constrained by “a policy-setting framework among the euro-zone governments that still lacks predictability.”  Recent statements on the European Stability Mechanism’s involvement in bank recapitalizations put into question the mutualization of loans to Spanish banks among euro-region nations, it said.  The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond jumped 12 basis points to 5.93% today before dropping to 5.80%, compared with a record of 7.75% on Jul 25, a day after Spain signed a memorandum of understanding awarding it a credit line for its banks.  This drama is far from over.

Spain Debt is Downgraded to One Level Above Junk by S&P on Economic Risks


Realogy Holdings (RLGY), the real estate brokerage company, shot up 29% in its first day of trading.  The company sold 40M shares for $27 each, the top of its IPO range.  The owner of the Coldwell Banker & Century 21 brands raised over $1B thru the sale of a 31 % stake & the IPO price gave RLGY a market value of $3½B.  The firm had planned to use the proceeds from the sale to help reduce debt by more than a 3rd to $4½B.  “We’re happy with the outcome but we have a lot of work to do,” CEO Richard Smith said.  “If you want broad housing exposure as a component of your portfolio, this is the only pure play for you.”  RLGY & rivals hope to benefit as home sales & prices recover, being propelled by tight supplies of listings & borrowing costs that are close to a record low.  The stock finished at $34.20, up 7.20 in what has been a tough year for IPOs.

Apollo Global’s Realogy Climbs in Debut After IPO Prices at Top of Range


The unemployment data should have been followed by a strong market.  It was, but enthusiasm withered after the first 2 hours of trading.  One hardly visible item which hurts all stocks is that Apple (AAPL), with the largest market cap, has lost $76 in 3 weeks.  The success of the IPO today proves there are buyers, but when AAPL sinks, all stock markets will have tough going.  Bank earnings start tomorrow & there should be nervousness about them because it's difficult to get a clear message with such a wide assortment of numbers.  Dow started the day with a good gain, but finished at the lows (off 100 from its high).

Dow Jones Industrials


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