Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Markets meander after weak Chinese data

Dow rose 17, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ added 9.  The Financial Index gained a fraction to 212.  The MLP index fell 1 to 408 & the REIT index was up 2 to 264.  Junk bond funds gained & Treasuries were flattish.  Gold had another big drop & gold eased back from recent highs.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.234%

U.S. 10-year

1.620%

CLX12.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 12...90.43 ...Down 1.46  (1.6%)

GCX12.CMX...Gold Nov 12.....1,778.70 ...Up 4.60 (0.3%)




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China’s Slowdown Reverberates as ADB Cuts Forecasts

Photo:   Bloomberg

China's services industry expanded the least in more than a year, underscoring a slowdown that spurred the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to lower its 2012 regional growth estimate & caused a slide in Australian coal exports.  The purchasing managers’ index from the Chinese gov & logistics federation fell to 53.7 in Sep from 56.3 the previous month while Australia in Aug recorded its widest trade deficit since Mar 2008.  The ADB today forecast Asia, excluding Japan, will expand 6.1% this year, the slowest pace since 2009.  “Deceleration in the region’s two giants -- the People’s Republic of China and India -- and in other major exporting economies is tempering earlier optimism,” the ADB report said. “The ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and the looming fiscal cliff in the U.S. pose major risks to the outlook.”  Asia’s exports have faltered as slower global growth crimps demand for the region’s goods.  Malaysia’s shipments abroad unexpectedly slipped for the first time in 3 months in Jul, while Thailand & South Korea have recorded 3 straight months of declines in overseas sales.  This is not good news for the stock markets.

China’s Slowdown Reverberates as ADB Cuts Forecasts


EU banks raised more than €200B ($258B) in fresh capital as part of measures introduced to respond to the area’s sovereign-debt crisis.  The 27 banks that were required by the European Banking Authority (EBA) to submit plans for capital raising managed a total of €116B.  Including aid to Greek & Spanish banks, European lenders increased their capital reserves by more than €200B.  The EBA told European banks in Dec to raise €114.7B in fresh capital.  The agency required banks to keep a core Tier-1 capital ratio of 9% & hold additional reserves, called a sovereign buffer, to protect against falling bond prices among euro-area nations.  “Banks are now in a better shape to finance the real economy but must continue on the path designed by the new regulatory environment.” Andrea Enria, chairman of the EBA said.  Banks will be required to maintain the buffers they have created “so as to be able to absorb unexpected losses & to support a smooth convergence” to tougher rules, known as Basel III.

EU Banks Raised $258 Billion Capital to Fight Crisis, EBA Says


ADP Says U.S. Companies Added 162,000 Workers in September

Photo:   Bloomberg

Companies added more workers than projected in Sep. The 162K increase in employment followed a revised 189K jump in Aug according to ADP Employer Services which beat the forecast of 140K.  The hiring gains, led by companies with fewer than 500 workers, can help shore up consumer confidence & spending, which in turn will bolster economic growth.  The Labor Dept report on Fri may show private payrolls increased 128K in Sep & unemployment rose to 8.2% from 8.1% in the prior month.  Over the 2 years ended Aug, ADP’s initial release has understated or overstated the Labor Dept initial private payroll figure by an average of 66K & the average miss by economists over the same period was 58K.  Whatever, the jobs will show a far lower number than the 200K+ added in Q1.

ADP Says U.S. Companies Added 162,000 Workers to Payrolls


Markets don't know what to do ahead of the big jobs report on Fri.  The ADP data was encouraging but the economy is still just plodding along.  Unemployment will continue to drag on above 8%, something that was not supposed to happen after the massive stimulus package 3 years ago.  Global markets are also stumbling.  Even Asia is feeling the effects of a global slowdown.  Dow continues to lumber along near 13.5K where it has been stuck since Sep 14.

Dow Jones Industrials


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