Thursday, October 4, 2012

Markets rise on economic reports and Spanish bailout hopes

Dow added 80, advancers ahead of decliners 5-2 & NAZ was up 14.  The Financial Index rose 3 to the 216s.  The MLP index climbed 1+ to a new record & the REIT index slipped a fraction in the 262s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries pulled back as stock markets rose.  Oil bounced back after Turkey strikes on Syria raised regional security fears & there were refinery fires in the US.  Gold is close to $1800 on bets against stimulus programs by the US & in Europe.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.242%

U.S. 10-year

1.668%


CLX12.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 12...91.50...Up 3.36  (3.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





Spain was told by Europe's economic watchdogs that its 2013 plan to cut the deficit to 4.5% of GDP relies on excessively optimistic assumptions.  Olli Rehn, the European commissioner in charge of policing budget rules, delivered the preliminary assessment to Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos in Madrid on Mon.  Spain’s 2013 budget assumes the economy will shrink 0.5%, less than the 1.3% contraction predicted by analysts.  Spanish central bank chief Luis Maria Linde also questioned the gov math today, calling it “optimistic.”  Weaker economic performance would widen the deficit, forecast at 6.3% of GDP in 2012, forcing the gov to impose more austerity or plead for a looser target.  Spain has been let out of its 2013 commitments before.  European govs in Jul raised the deficit target from 3%.  Already tapping €100B ($130B) in aid to overhaul its banks, Spain is considering a broader European support package to shore up gov finances.  The European Commission won’t comment on Spain’s budget until it puts out its 2013 economic forecasts on Nov 7.  This situation doesn't look good

EU Said to Doubt Viability of Spain’s 2013 Deficit-Cut Target


TJX Sales Top Estimates on Back-to-School as Kohl’s Disappoints

Photo:   Bloomberg

US retailers Sep same-store sales topped estimates, led by discount & specialty- apparel chains that benefited from back-to-school shopping, while department stores trailed projections.   Sales at TJX (TJX) climbed 6%, beating the average estimate for a 4.4% gain.  Target (TGT), a Dividend Aristocrat & the 2nd-largest discounter, posted a 2.1% increase in same-store sales, ahead of the 2% projection.  Retailers benefited from back-to-school promotions that drove traffic early in Sep before tapering off in the middle of the month.  Same-store sales for the more than 20 companies tracked by Retail Metrics rose 3.9%, excluding drugstores, topping an estimate for a 3.7% gain.  But sales increased 5.9% in Aug.  Specialty-apparel chains led the gains with a 5.6% increase, while discounters rose 4.3% & department-store sales increased 1.4%.

U.S. Retailers’ September Sales Top Analysts’ Estimates on School Shopping


Facebook hit a major milestone when it  reached 1B users.  With a world population of nearly 7B, that means just about one in 7 people across the globe is on Facebook.  Those are "monthly active users," which are users who log on via the site or a mobile device, or share content or activity with their Facebook friends or thru a 3rd-party site that's integrated in some way with Facebook in a 30-day time span.  FB had 552M daily active users on average in Jun 2012.  CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced, "there are more than one billion people using Facebook actively each month."  FB reached 500M users in 2010, & at the end of Jul, the company said it had reached 955M monthly average users.  Since going public in May the social company has been weighed down by doubts over whether it was worth nearly as much as its IPO estimated, $104B.  The stock was up 12¢ today after a disappointing performance since going public.

Facebook Hits a Milestone: 1 Billion Users

Facebook (FB)


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After climbing in the last 3 days, Dow is still down 18 compared with Sep 14 when it reached a 4 year high.  I keep thinking of the old adage about buy on the rumor & sell on the news.  The jobs report news will be released before the market open tomorrow, maybe that will the story.  Meanwhile REITs are doing well but have not been able to make upward progress in 3 months.  However, MLPs have gotten a new breath of life & were able to push the Alerian MLP Index to a new high at 412.  Tomorrow will be critical for the bulls if they want to show they have taken charge of the stock markets.

Dow Jones Industrials


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