Friday, October 19, 2012

Markets pull back on weaker earnings

Dow dropped 112, decliners ahead of advancers 5-2 & NAZ fell 32 hurt by a weak tech sector.  MLPs continue hot, but the index lost a fraction to the 411s (4 below its recent record) & the REIT index added a fraction to the 268s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries rose after recent selling.  Oil is about even & gold fell.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.294%

U.S. 10-year

1.796%

CLX12.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 12...92.90 ...Up 0.80 (0.9%)

GCX12.CMX...Gold Nov 12.....1,737.60 ...Down 6.10  (0.4%)






Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras

Greek Prime Minister Samaras.
Photo:   Bloomberg

Greek Prime Minister Samaras moved closer to winning a delayed aid disbursement when European leaders praised his gov’s budget-cutting push.  At his first EU summit since becoming premier in Jun, Samaras said record unemployment showed the price Greece was paying for austerity demanded by the euro area as a condition for emergency loans.  He urged parallel steps to kick- start the economy & stuck to a request for 2 extra years until 2016 to meet targets for narrowing th budget deficit, prompting signs of European goodwill.  “We welcome the determination of the Greek government to deliver on its commitments and we commend the remarkable efforts by the Greek people,” the 16 other euro-area leaders.  “Good progress has been made to bring the adjustment program back on track.”  The next aid payout is scheduled to total €31B, most of which would be to recapitalize banks.  That disbursement would be under a €130B rescue package approved earlier this year.  Creditors that also include the IMF are loosening the budget noose on Greece as its recession heads for a 6th year in 2013, domestic anti-bailout parties gain in popularity & the jobless rate reaches 25%.  A softening in attitude was symbolized earlier this month when Angela Merkel made her first visit to Athens since the debt crisis erupted 3 years ago.  She held a meeting with Samaras today as the second part of the EU summit got under way.  “One has to recognize that a lot has already been done and that they’re pressing ahead” in Greece, Merkel said.  She continued that she works “very well” with Samaras, who, at his own press conference, said “the climate has changed.  All our European partners have recognized that we have made big progress lately.  The Greek economy and society are on the brink.”

  • The logo of the GE Money Bank is seen behind a traffic light in Prague May 29, 2012. REUTERS/David W Cerny
Photo:   Yahoo

General Electric, a Dow stock, reported weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue, hurt by unfavorable exchange rates, & investors shrugged off an 8.3% profit increase to send the shares lower.  GE, the largest US conglomerate, revenue rose 2.8% as revenue fell at its aviation & healthcare units, & the stronger dollar hurt results by diminishing the value of foreign sales.  But GE stood by its forecast for full-year earnings to rise at a double-digit percentage rate & sales would be up just 3%, reflecting continued efforts to cut back the GE Capital finance arm & unfavorable exchange rates on foreign currencies.  The company is not counting on any significant improvement in the world economy next year.  "We're not assuming that Europe gets any better," CEO Jeff Immelt said.  "We're looking at '13 being kind of like '12, with the big variable being the fiscal cliff."  GE does not expect those cuts to take effect, Immelt said.  "We're making the same assessment most people do, that somehow it gets resolved," said Immelt, who is a top adviser to Obama on jobs on the economy.  The stock lost 59¢.

GE Curbs Sales-Growth Target as Finance Unit Shrinks

General Electric (GE)


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Microsoft Suffers With AMD as PC Weakness Weighs on Results

Windows 8
Photo:   Bloomberg

Microsoft, a Dow stock, reported quarterly results that fell short of predictions, adding to evidence that PC sales are being squeezed by anemic demand & competition from tablets.  Profit & sales in fiscal Q1 missed estimates on declining sales of Windows.  EPS was 53¢, below the 56¢ estimate.  Sales fell 7.9% to $16B, compared with the $16.4B estimate.  Global PC shipments slumped 8.3% from a year earlier to 87.5M units, market-research firm Gartner said last week.  The total PC market will contract by 1.2% to 349M units this year, the first annual decline since 2001.  MSFT is betting on Windows 8, which goes on sale next week, to lift demand for PCs & get consumers to purchase tablet machines running Windows.  Alongside tablets from its computer-maker partners, MSFT will begin selling Surface, a tablet that marks the company’s first foray into computer hardware.  Sales of Windows declined 33% to $3.24B, missing the average estimate of $3.64B.  Business Division sales, mostly Office software, fell 2.4%.  The stock fell 68¢.

Microsoft to AMD Follow Intel in Suffering as PC Weakness Crimps Results

Microsoft (MSFT)


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The big industrials have been feeling the effects of the global slowdown.  That should be a dominant theme in future earnings reports.  Even the US, with a relatively stronger economy, is not doing all that well with the looming fiscal cliff which will bite hard if Congress doesn't act.  The Dow chart has hardly budged since its highs on Sep 14.  While it may be going sideways, there is an underlying negative bias as seen today.

Dow Jones Industrials

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