Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Markets muddle along on confusion over Spanish bailout

Dow fell 38, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 5.  The Financial Index hardly budged at 211.  The MLP & REIT indices were flattish as were junk bond funds & Treasuries.  Oil was pretty much even & gold slid a tad.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.234%

U.S. 10-year

1.625%

CLZ12.NYM....Crude Oil Dec 12...93.04 ...Up 0.19 (0.2%)

GCV12.CMX...Gold Oct 12......1,777.20 ...Down 3.30  (0.2%)




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  • <p>               This Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2012, photo, shows an exterior view of a home sold in Palo Alto, Calif. A measure of U.S. home prices jumped 4.6 percent in August compared with a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase in more than six years. CoreLogic, a private real estate data provider, also said Tuesday that prices rose 0.3 percent in August from July, the sixth straight monthly gain. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
Photo:   Yahoo

Home prices in the US jumped 4.6% in Aug compared with a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase in more than 6 years.  CoreLogic also said that prices rose 0.3% in Aug from Jul, the 6th straight monthly gain.  Steady price increases, combined with greater home sales & rising builder confidence, suggest the housing recovery may be sustainable.  Other measures of home prices have also increased. The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index rose in Jul compared with a year ago, the 2nd straight yearly increase after 2 years of declines & an index compiled by a federal housing regulator has also reported annual increases.  Housing prices are rising in most areas.  Only 20 large cities out of 100 tracked showed declines in the 12 months ending in Aug, down from 26 in Jul.  "The housing market's gains are increasingly geographically diverse with only six states continuing to show declining prices," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.  States with the biggest price increases in the past 12 months were Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Utah & Hawaii. Prices soared 18.2% in Arizona, partly because the supply of homes for sale is low & foreclosure sales have slowed.  Prices have risen 10.4% in Idaho.  The states with the biggest declines were Rhode Island, Illinois, New Jersey, Alabama & Connecticut.

 Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy poses for photographers at the start of his meeting with E.U Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn (unseen) at Madrid's Moncloa Palace October 1, 2012. REUTERS/Susana Vera

Photo:   Yahoo

Spain is ready to request a euro zone bailout for its public finances as early as next weekend but Germany has signaled that it should hold off.  The latest twist in the euro zone's 3-year-old sovereign debt crisis comes as financial markets & some other European partners are pressuring Spain to seek a rescue program that would trigger ECB buying of its bonds  "The Spanish were a bit hesitant but now they are ready to request aid," a senior European source said.  German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has said Spain is taking all the right steps to overcome its fiscal problems & does not need a bailout, arguing that investors will recognize & reward Spanish reforms in due course.  Privately, several European diplomats & a senior German source said Chancellor Merkel preferred to avoid putting more individual bailouts for distressed euro zone countries to her increasingly reluctant parliament.  "It doesn't make sense to send looming decisions on Greece, Cyprus and possibly also Spain to the Bundestag one by one," the senior German source said.  "Bundling these together makes sense, due to the substance and also politically."  Participants said there were tense exchanges at a euro zone ministerial meeting in Cyprus in mid-Sep when Schaeuble told his peers Berlin could not take another bailout for Spain to parliament so soon after lawmakers approved up to €100B ($129B) to help Spanish banks in Jul.  This is called bailout confusion & it's not good.

Spain Ready for Bailout, Germany Signals 'Wait' Sources


Chrysler US sales rose almost 12% last month as the company reported its best Sep in 5 years.  The increase from a year earlier was fueled by new models, low interest rates & a stable US economy.  Its sales chief predicted that Sep sales for the industry would reach an annual rate of 14.9M, making it the best month since Mar of 2008.  Americans continue to buy new cars & trucks at a strong pace this year, making auto sales a steady bright spot in a cloudy economy.  Cheap loans & leases, aging cars that need replacing, & a new lineup of fuel-efficient midsize sedans are drawing shoppers to dealerships.  "We remain optimistic about the health of the U.S. new vehicle sales industry and our position in it," said Reid Bigland, Chrysler's head of US sales.  There are a new models coming out, especially in the midsize car category, the most popular segment of the market as customers are replacing aging cars they held onto during the 2007-2009 recession, & that's been helping sales all year.  The average age of cars & trucks is near 11 years.

Chrysler Sales Gain 12% as CEO Sees Best Month in 4 Years


Once again, there is not a lot happening in the markets.  Dow reached its 4 year high on Sep 14 & has been sputtering just under that level for more than 2 weeks.  Each day there is lack of follow thru brings us closer to earnings season & there is a lot of nervousness about earnings & the guidance for Q4.  The fiscal cliff of Jan 1 gets nearer & that is weighing on market psychology.  One key item is the threat for an increase in capital gains taxes.

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