Thursday, October 11, 2012

Markets rise on improving jobless claims data

Dow added 60, advancers ahead of decliners better than 5-1 & NAZ was up 15.  The Financial Index was up 2+ to 217.  The MLP index was up a fraction to go over 410 & the REIT index gained 1 to the 263s.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries slipped back.  Oil rose as it marches towards 100 & gold also is having a good day.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.092%

U.S. 2-year

0.266%

U.S. 10-year

1.726%

CLX12.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 12...92.44 ...Up 1.19 (1.3%)

GCV12.CMX...Gold Oct 12.......1,768.90 ...Up 5.70 (0.3%)






  • People wait in line to enter a job fair in New York August 15, 2011. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Photo:   Yahoo


Jobless Claims in U.S. Drop to Four-Year Low

Photo:   Bloomberg

The number filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to the lowest level in more than 4½ years, according to gov data.  Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 30K to  339K according to the Labor Dept.  This was the lowest number claims since Feb 2008, about a year before the midst of the global financial crisis.  But it's appropriate not to read too much into one week's figure.  The prior week's figure was revised up to show 2K more new jobless aid applications than previously reported.  The report showed the number still receiving benefits under regular state programs fell to 3.27M, the lowest since May.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall to Four-Year Low


The US trade deficit widened in Aug as slower global growth reduced demand for American exports.  The gap grew 4.1% to $44.2B from $42.5B in Jul, according to the Commerce Dept.  Exports decreased to the lowest level since Feb.  A stagnant Europe & slower growth in China along with other emerging markets may curtail demand for American products, which had been a source of strength for US manufacturers.  At the same time, the pickup in energy costs may push up the nation’s import bill, keeping the trade gap elevated.  Imports decreased 0.1% to $225.5B, also the weakest since Feb, from $225.7B in the prior month.  Purchases of autos, clothing & aircraft from overseas dropped.  This is a negative sign for the US economy.

Trade Deficit in U.S. Widened in August as Exports Dropped

  • Japan's Finance Minister Koriki Jojima talks next to Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde (C) and Liberia's President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf (R) during the "Globalization at a Crossroads: From Tokyo to Tokyo" debate at the Tokyo International Forum October 11, 2012. REUTERS/Stephen Jaffe/IMF/Handout
Photo:   Yahoo

The IMF backed giving Greece & Spain more time to reduce their budget deficits, cautioning that cutting too far, too fast would do more harm than good.  But Germany pushed back & said back-tracking on debt-reduction goals would only hurt confidence, a stance that suggested disagreement.  "The IMF has time and again said that high public debt poses a problem," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters. "So when there is a certain medium-term goal, it doesn't build confidence when one starts by going in a different direction."  "When you want to climb a big mountain and you start climbing down then the mountain will get even higher."  The IMF released new research this week showing that fiscal consolidation has a much sharper negative effect on growth than previously thought.  Since the global financial crisis, these so-called fiscal multipliers have been as much as 3 times larger than they were before 2009.  That means aggressive austerity measures may inflict deep economic wounds that make it harder for an economy to get out from under heavy debt burdens.  "It is sometimes better to have a bit more time," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.  "That is what we advocated for Portugal; this is what we advocated for Spain; and this is what we are advocating for Greece."  But the IMF was less willing to be patient with Europe on following thru with its efforts to seek a more cohesive fiscal & banking union.  It said that process was critically incomplete, & blamed the plodding pace for contributing to economic uncertainty that was hurting global growth.

IMF Urges Europe to Put Brake on Deep Budget Cuts


The jobless data helped bring out buyers.  But cautionary words from the IMF are another reminder that a lot of mending remains for financial systems.  The rise for Dow was nothing special & tomorrow will bring the first banks to report, JPMorgan (JPM) , a Dow stock, & Wells Fargo (WFC).  Even with today's advance, Dow is 200 below its recent 4 year highs & has been treading water near 13½K for a month.

Dow Jones Industrials


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