Dow rose 85, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ added 16. The MLP lost 1+ to the 459s (still within 10 if its recent record) & the REIT index crawled fractionally higher. Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were weak. Oil & gold fluctuated.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Consumer confidence in the US improved in Feb from a month earlier as more consumers grew optimistic about the outlook for the economy. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of sentiment rose to 81.6 from 81.2 in Jan. The estimate called for the measure to hold at its preliminary reading of 81.2.
Sustained sentiment indicates spending may pick up after bad winter weather across much of the US caused some to stay close to home rather than shop. Wage growth & more hiring would help further brighten spirits & give consumers the wherewithal to increase their purchases. The survey’s index of expectations 6 months from now increased to a 6-month high of 72.7 from 71.2 last month & the preliminary reading was 73. The gauge of current spending, which measures Americans’ view of their personal finances, dropped to 95.4 in Feb from 96.8 a month earlier. The initial reading was 94. Cold temperatures & winter storms have helped limit progress in the labor market.
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Increases on Outlook for Economy
Contracts to purchase previously owned homes in the US rose less than forecast in Jan, adding to signs housing was weakening in early 2014. The index of pending home sales climbed 0.1% after a 5.8% drop the prior month that was smaller than previously estimated, according to the National Association of Realtors. The forecast called for sales to rise 1.8%. Faster gains in hiring & consumer confidence are needed to sustain the housing recovery. Home construction fell last month amid harsh winter weather, which combined with a lack of supply, strict lending rules & waning affordability to also reduce existing-home sales that are tabulated when a contract closes. “Ongoing disruptive weather patterns in much of the U.S. inhibited home shopping,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said. “Limited inventory also is playing a role, especially in the West, while credit remains tight and affordability isn’t as favorable as it was a year ago.” Contract signings decreased 9.1% from a year earlier on an unadjusted basis, after a 6.1% drop in the prior 12-month period. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings. Existing home sales are tabulated when a contract closes, typically a month or 2 later. Recent data indicate adverse weather was one reason for depressed housing activity.
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rose 0.1% in January
Business activity in the Chicago area accelerated unexpectedly in Feb, adding to signs manufacturing gains will be sustained in 2014. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business barometer increased to 59.8 this month from 59.6 in Jan. The forecast called for the index to fall to 56.4. Readings greater than 50 signal growth. Car sales, home construction & consumer spending continue to boost the outlook for manufacturers, which make up 12% of the economy. Faster wage growth & more job creation would lead to bigger & sustained gains. Projections were 53-60. The national factory index, from the Institute for Supply Management, probably rose to 52 in Feb from 51.3 the prior month, according to the latest estimates.
Manufacturing in Chicago Area Unexpectedly Grows at Faster Pace
Stocks are having another up day. While today's data is encouraging, the damage that the harsh winter did to the economic recovery is not well understood. Yield sensitive securities (MLPs, REITs, junk bond funds & even munies) are having a good year while the stock averages are struggling to get back to the records set at the end of last year. Dow is up 670 this month, however it's still off more than 200 YTD.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Treasury yields:
U.S. 3-month |
0.04% | |
U.S. 2-year |
0.33% | |
U.S. 10-year |
2.68% |
| CLJ14.NYM | ....Crude Oil Apr 14 | ...102.18 |  ...0.22 | (0.2%) |
| GCH14.CMX | ...Gold Mar 14 | ...1,328.00 | ...3.60 | (0.3%) |
Consumer confidence in the US improved in Feb from a month earlier as more consumers grew optimistic about the outlook for the economy. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of sentiment rose to 81.6 from 81.2 in Jan. The estimate called for the measure to hold at its preliminary reading of 81.2.
Sustained sentiment indicates spending may pick up after bad winter weather across much of the US caused some to stay close to home rather than shop. Wage growth & more hiring would help further brighten spirits & give consumers the wherewithal to increase their purchases. The survey’s index of expectations 6 months from now increased to a 6-month high of 72.7 from 71.2 last month & the preliminary reading was 73. The gauge of current spending, which measures Americans’ view of their personal finances, dropped to 95.4 in Feb from 96.8 a month earlier. The initial reading was 94. Cold temperatures & winter storms have helped limit progress in the labor market.
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Increases on Outlook for Economy
Contracts to purchase previously owned homes in the US rose less than forecast in Jan, adding to signs housing was weakening in early 2014. The index of pending home sales climbed 0.1% after a 5.8% drop the prior month that was smaller than previously estimated, according to the National Association of Realtors. The forecast called for sales to rise 1.8%. Faster gains in hiring & consumer confidence are needed to sustain the housing recovery. Home construction fell last month amid harsh winter weather, which combined with a lack of supply, strict lending rules & waning affordability to also reduce existing-home sales that are tabulated when a contract closes. “Ongoing disruptive weather patterns in much of the U.S. inhibited home shopping,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said. “Limited inventory also is playing a role, especially in the West, while credit remains tight and affordability isn’t as favorable as it was a year ago.” Contract signings decreased 9.1% from a year earlier on an unadjusted basis, after a 6.1% drop in the prior 12-month period. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings. Existing home sales are tabulated when a contract closes, typically a month or 2 later. Recent data indicate adverse weather was one reason for depressed housing activity.
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rose 0.1% in January
Business activity in the Chicago area accelerated unexpectedly in Feb, adding to signs manufacturing gains will be sustained in 2014. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business barometer increased to 59.8 this month from 59.6 in Jan. The forecast called for the index to fall to 56.4. Readings greater than 50 signal growth. Car sales, home construction & consumer spending continue to boost the outlook for manufacturers, which make up 12% of the economy. Faster wage growth & more job creation would lead to bigger & sustained gains. Projections were 53-60. The national factory index, from the Institute for Supply Management, probably rose to 52 in Feb from 51.3 the prior month, according to the latest estimates.
Manufacturing in Chicago Area Unexpectedly Grows at Faster Pace
Stocks are having another up day. While today's data is encouraging, the damage that the harsh winter did to the economic recovery is not well understood. Yield sensitive securities (MLPs, REITs, junk bond funds & even munies) are having a good year while the stock averages are struggling to get back to the records set at the end of last year. Dow is up 670 this month, however it's still off more than 200 YTD.
Dow Jones Industrials
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