Monday, February 24, 2014

Markets rise after acquisitions announced

Dow gained 103, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ added 29.  The MLP index lost 2+ to the 457s & the REIT went up 1+ to the 283s.  Junk bond funds index were mixed, although up YTD, & Treasuries eased back.  Oil rose & gold keeps forging ahead, negative bets from investors seeking safety from stock market gains.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)






BONDS

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.32%

U.S. 10-year

2.75%

CLJ14.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 14....102.88 Up ...0.68 (0.7%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




With Ukraine’s new leaders saying the economy is in peril & a debt default possible, bond investors are looking for clues that fresh aid is on its way.  The benchmark dollar debt due Apr 2023 posted its biggest gain in 2 months, with the yield dropping 93 basis points to 9.26%.  The rally followed an 82 basis point drop on Sat, before lawmakers ousted Viktor Yanukovych as president & handed his powers to new parliamentary speaker, Oleksandr Turchynov.  While the removal of Yanukovych raises the prospect of an end to clashes that killed dozens last week & plunged the $176B economy into turmoil, it raises the question of how Ukraine will shore up the hryvnia & pay debt.  Europe, the US & the IMF have said they’re prepared to offer aid.  Russia said the situation must stabilize before it gets more of the $15B pledged in Dec.  Turchynov, given presidential powers as lawmakers prepare to form a coalition gov, said that the economy was in a “pre-default situation.”  S&P cut the nation’s credit rating to CCC, 8 levels below investment grade, saying the country risks default.  The gov said the country needs $35B of financial assistance to avoid default as it issued an arrest warrant for Yanukovych for his role in last week’s violence.  Lawmakers in Kiev are working on a coalition gov, which needs to be in place before Ukraine can receive aid.

Ukraine Bond Rally Seen Tied to New Aid Amid Default Concern


Facebook's purchase of WhatsApp for a staggering $19B is heightening the allure of other fledgling businesses, some of them little known in the US, that specialize in letting users send messages.  Possible buyers include Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow stock, & Google (GOOG).  The appeal?  Gaining millions of users, sometimes in other parts of the world, who are addicted to sending messages & other information via mobile device.  FB CEO Mark Zuckerberg's deal to buy WhatsApp, with its 450M users, was unveiled 5 days after Rakuten’s $900M acquisition of Viber, another messenger app.  Potential buyers of messenger software startups include technology companies, major phone carriers & infrastructure providers.  FB stock rose 2.19.  If you would like to learn more about FB, click on this link:
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Facebook’s $19 Billion Deal Fuels Allure of Tango to Kik as Next WhatsApp

Facebook (FB)




Leading global economies pledged to maintain generally accommodative policies & pay heed to the intl repercussions of their actions as Federal Reserve (FED) Chair Janet Yellen won praise for helping smooth emerging-market concerns.  Before the G-20 nations’ concluding communique was released yesterday, India & South Africa were among nations calling for the FED to consider spillovers as it tapers its monthly asset purchases.  Officials from the UK & Australia had backed the FED’s right to set policy to its own needs & said some were using the impact of tapering as an excuse for domestic failings.  Announcing G-20 priorities, Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey said Yellen was “hugely impressive” in dealing with the issue of taper fallout.  “There was proper recognition that the movement of monetary policy in major developed countries either way, whether it be tightening or easing, is going to have an impact on emerging economies,” he said.  3 weeks into her job, Yellen kept her influence behind closed doors, eschewing public statements while in Sydney.  As Hockey & his French & Spanish counterparts noted her impact in deliberations, Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan, who warned before the meetings of a breakdown in global policy coordination due to tapering, noted “widespread agreement” on the need to calibrate policy.  The timing of stimulus pullback will depend on the outlook for prices & growth, the communique said.  The group will aim to lift collective GDP by more than 2 % above the trajectory implied by current policies over the coming 5 years.  Beyond acknowledging the group fell in love with Janet, little was accomplished at the meeting.  Good excuse for a foreign vacation.

Yellen Wins G-20 Praise as Emerging Markets’ Angst Eased


The whopper size purchase by FB was the headline news today.  This was for a company which has a lot of eyeballs viewing its site.  The eyeballs metric has been used before & results were ugly.  The market value of WhatsApp compares with many companies in the S&P 500.  It's unnerving to watch all those "smart guys" looking for ways to justify an astronomical purchase price for a company with so little economic fundamentals behind it.  This activity makes me think there will be a day of reckoning.  Dow closed almost 100 below the high today.

Dow Jones Industrials








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