Thursday, February 27, 2014

Markets fluctuate after indecisive durable goods orders data

Dow slid 1, advancers just ahead of decliners & NAZ was up 4.  The MLP index dropped 3+ to under 461, remaining near its record highs set earlier this month, & the REIT index lost a fraction in the 283s.. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries edged higher.  Oil was lower & gold went back to its winning ways in this year. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.32%

U.S. 10-year

2.64%

CLJ14.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 14...102.07 Down ...0.52  (0.5%)

GCH14.CMX...Gold Mar 14......1,332.30 Up ...4.30 (0.3%)








More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market is improving in fits & starts.  Jobless claims increased 14K to 348K, exceeding all forecasts & the highest level in a month, from 334K in the prior period, according to the Labor Dept.  Cold temperatures & winter storms have damped progress in the housing & labor market, indicating growth slowed in the first 2 months of the year.  The prior week’s claims were revised down to 334K from an initial reading of 336K.   The 4-week average of claims was unchanged at 338K.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits increased 8K to 2.96M in the latest week.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Climbed Last Week to One-Month High


Orders for US durable goods fell less than forecast in Jan, a sign manufacturing was beginning to emerge from harsh winter weather.  The 1% decrease in bookings for goods meant to last at least 3 years followed a revised 5.3% slump in Dec that was larger than previously estimated, according to the Commerce Dept.  The estimate called for a 1.7% decline.  Orders for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, improved.  The figures show companies are regaining confidence the economy will rebound as temperatures warm, encouraging factories to boost production.  Advances in business investment will be needed to broaden economic growth beyond gains in consumer spending & housing.  Bookings for durable goods notched the first back-to-back decline since 2011   Excluding transportation equipment, orders increased 1.1%, the biggest gain since May, after a 1.9% drop in Dec.  Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.7% after a 1.8% decrease in Dec that was larger than previously estimated.  Shipments of those goods, a measure used to calculate GDP, fell 0.8% in Jan after rising 0.3% the prior month, starting Q1 on a weak note.  Bookings for commercial aircraft dropped 20.2% after a 22.3% decrease in Dec.

Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Decrease Less Than Forecas


Ukrainian officials notified the IMF of the country’s request for financial support, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.  “We are ready to respond and, in the coming days, will send an IMF fact-finding team to Kiev to undertake a preliminary dialogue with the authorities,” Lagarde said.  “This will enable the IMF to make its usual technical, independent assessment of the economic situation in Ukraine and, at the same time, begin to discuss with the authorities the policy reforms that could form the basis of a Fund-supported program.”   Arseniy Yatsenyuk won the support of Ukrainian protesters in Kiev to lead an interim cabinet after the nation’s bloodiest unrest since World War II.  Lawmakers were set to approve Yatsenyuk as prime minister today ahead of a parliamentary ballot in 4 months, acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said.  With the former prime minister on the run & facing murder charges, Yatsenyuk must seal a $35B financial lifeline to avert a default as investors pull money out of Ukraine.  While the US & the EU have pledged aid, Russia has questioned the new administration’s legitimacy & halted a $15B bailout.  Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, is at the weakest level since its 1996 introduction.



Stocks extended their sideways trading during this week.  News has been mixed.  The unsettled situation in Ukraine is a dark cloud that will not go away soon.  Effects form the winter weather affecting much of the US are being seen in macro economic data.  Earnings from retailers are coming in sort of good.  But accounting adjustments & stock repurchases generally have more to do with higher EPS than increased revenue.  The Feb rally has not been able to eliminate a lower Dow for the year.

Dow Jones Industrials










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