Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Markets fluctuate on weak homebuilders confidence

Dow slipped 20, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 24. The MLP index rose 2+ to the 469s (record territory)  while the REIT index slid 1+ to 280.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries went up.  Oil found some buying & gold edged higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.02%

U.S. 2-year

0.30%

U.S. 10-year

2.71%

CLF15.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 15...93.35 Up ...0.35 (0.4%)

GCG14.CMX...Gold Feb 14.....1,322.20 Up ...3.20 (0.2%)







U.S. Home Construction

Photo:   Bloomberg

Confidence among homebuilders in the US  plunged in Feb by the most on record as bad weather limited prospective buyer traffic & depressed sales.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment gauge slumped to 46 from 56 in Jan.  Readings less than 50 mean more respondents reported poor market conditions than good.  The measure was weaker than the most pessimistic projection.  Snowstorms last week in the south & eastern US helped reduce homebuyer traffic to its slowest pace since Apr.  Purchases & sales expectations also declined as builder confidence deteriorated from coast to coast, signaling construction will contribute less to economic growth at the start of 2014.  The Feb decrease was the biggest since monthly record-keeping began in 1985.  The forecast called for 56 (54 was the lowest).  The measure of the 6 month sales outlook decreased to 54 from 60, while the index of current single-family home purchases dropped to 51 from 62 in Jan.  Both Feb readings were the weakest since May.  The gauge of prospective buyer traffic slumped to 31 this month from 40.

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Slumped in February on Weather


Coca-Cola, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, announced a $1B cost-cutting program as falling soft-drink demand in North America & slowing growth overseas contributed to an 8.4% drop in quarterly profit.  Q4 EPS was 38¢, down from 41¢, a year earlier..  Excluding some items, EPS was 46¢, matching the estimate.  Sales fell 3.6% to $11B, trailing projections.  CEO Muhtar Kent, facing sluggish demand worldwide, said that KO will reduce its supply & data-management costs & overhaul marketing programs to generate $1B in savings by 2016.  Global sales volume rose 1% in Q4, less than 3% growth a year ago.  Sales volume in North America fell 1%.  With soft-drink sales slowing in markets such as the US & Mexico, savings from the new program will be plowed into marketing its brands directly to consumers.  The company has implemented a “multifaceted” approach to try to reverse slower soft-drink sales, Kent said.  The effort will target concerns that soft drinks cause obesity & feature innovation in sweeteners & packaging.  Sales volume of carbonated soft drinks in North America unit declined 3% & sales in the Latin America division was little changed.  China volume increased 5%, helping boost volume for the region 4%.  KO agreed earlier this month to buy a 10% stake in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) for about $1¼B & work with the maker of Keurig coffee brewers to introduce a system for producing single-serve cold drinks.  The stock fell 1.35.  If you would like to learn more about KO, click on this link:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=KO&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Coca-Cola Plans $1 Billion in Cost Cuts as Profit Falls

Coca-Cola (KO)


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German investor confidence fell for a 2nd month in Feb, signaling concern that the fragile recoveries in neighboring countries pose a risk to Europe’s largest economy.  The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor & analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments 6 months in advance, slid to 55.7 from 61.7 in Jan, after reaching a 7 year high of 62 in Dec.  The estimate was for 61.5.  While German economic growth of 0.4% in Q4 exceeded forecasts, investors are still cautious about the rest of the euro area, the county’s biggest trading partner.  A gauge of the current situation rose to 50 in Feb from 41.2 the prior month & a measure of expectations for the euro area dropped to 68.5 from 73.3. 

German Investor Confidence Falls on Caution Over Outlook


Stocks are back to stumbling around, looking for direction.  Bad weather is pinching business & there will be more reports on how badly it's hurting results.  While KO is a great company, this is another reminder that higher sales are tough to come by for some of the most famous companies.  Dow has had a good rally in Feb, but that may have run its course.  Overseas markets are reporting only so-so results & the US recovery will probably be less than robust in Q1.  Dow continues in the red YTD as the 2nd month is coming to a close.

Dow Jones Industrials

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