Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Markets struggle for gains after housing data and retail earnings

Dow crawled up 18, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 4.  After slipping & sliding for more than a week, the MLP index jumped 5+ to the 463s while the REIT index inched up pocket change to 284.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries rose.  Oil gained & gold posted the biggest drop in almost 4 weeks after an increase in new-home sales in the US bolstered optimism in the economy, crimping demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)










Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.32%

U.S. 10-year

2.67%

CLJ14.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 14....102.55 Up ...0.72 (0.7%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Federal Reserve (FED) Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said the FED should be patient in removing accommodation because of persistent damage to the US labor market.  “There remains significant slack in labor markets, above and beyond the slack usually represented by the standard unemployment rate,” which fell to 6.6% last month, Rosengren said in prepared remarks.  “Such conditions call for a very patient approach to removing monetary policy accommodation, particularly given the softness in recent economic data.”  Rosengren’s remarks echo FED Chair Janet Yellen's view that the job market has yet to make a full recovery from the longest & deepest recession in decades.  Rosengren, a consistent supporter of the stimulus, initially opposed the central bank's Dec decision to begin slowing the pace of bond purchases.  Since then, he has said that while he would have preferred to start the tapering later, he supports the strategy of trimming bond buying in $10B increments at meetings of the FOMC.  The central bank may halt its reductions in the pace of bond purchases if the economy proves weak for reasons other than harsh winter weather, Rosengren said in response to a question.  “If we find out the economy is slow, not because of weather but because of underlying fundamentals,” then “we could certainly pause in terms of the tapering program,” he said.  “We do look at it with a great deal of detail but the driver is still to think about how it impacts our domestic markets,” Rosengren said, referring to risk of instability among emerging markets.  “We have to weigh that primarily against our own domestic objectives.”  Rosengren said he doesn’t generally see signs of excessive risk-taking.  “I don’t see a great deal of issue with the pricing in most financial markets and still see some significant problems in labor markets,” he added.

Rosengren Urges Patience in Stimulus Cut as Jobs Market Weak


IBM,a Dow stock, is encouraging software developers to build applications on its artificial-intelligence system Watson, looking to data analytics to help reverse falling revenue.  It will host a mobile developer challenge that urges programmers to create consumer & business apps powered by Watson, CEO Ginni Rometty said.  In 3 months, the company will choose 3 prototypes to receive design consulting & support to develop commercial apps.  IBM has been increasing its investment in Watson as the company works to show clients the value of the technology, which analyzes troves of data & can answer questions in conversational language.  The company said in Jan that it will spend $1B to create a new division around Watson to help spur growth after 7 consecutive qtrs of declining revenue.  “You run a business today and you reinvent it for the future at the same time,” Rometty said.  “You go through these transitions. If you try to compare today to the past, today the speed is much faster.”  As sluggish demand for computer hardware has hurt sales, IBM has focused on more profitable, faster-growing areas such as data analytics & cloud computing, & the company has also sold hardware businesses.  Watson & other big-data services were the company’s primary focus in 2013, Rometty said ago.  Last year, IBM boosted its expected sales from the data-analysis business to $20B in 2015, compared with an earlier forecast of $16B.  The stock rose 83¢.  If you would like to lean more about IBM, click on this link:
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IBM Encouraging Software Developers to Build Mobile Apps Based On Watson

International Business Machines (IBM)




Target stock, a Dividend Aristocrat, jumped the most in almost 5 years after Q4 profit topped estimates & the retailer said it was beginning to recover from a data breach that struck during the holiday season.  EPS was 81¢, which compares with $1.47 a year earlier.  Analysts had projected 79¢.  Sales declined 5.3% to $21.5B, matching predictions.  CEO Gregg Steinhafel has been working to keep customers coming into stores after hackers stole card data & personal information from millions of shoppers in Dec.  The company offered customers a weekend of 10% discounts that month & a year of free credit monitoring.  Those efforts are beginning to pay off, Steinhafel said. 
“We will continue to work tirelessly to win back the confidence of our guests and deliver irresistible merchandise and offers, and we are encouraged that sales trends have improved in recent weeks,” he said.  The US comparable-store sales decreased 2.5% in Q4, in line with the company’s forecast.  It attributed the decline to the hacker attack. Sales are expected to be almost flat in Feb, a faster recovery than Yarbrough had predicted.  TGT also indicated that it will make $1-$2B in stock repurchases this year.  After opening its first stores in Canada about a year ago, TGT said it will begin including those results in its adjusted earnings figures.  On that basis, which excludes costs from the data breach, it expects EPS of 60-75¢ this qtr.  For the full year, it expects EPS of $3.85-$4.15.  The Canadian segment generated sales of $623M last qtr & reduced EPS by 40¢, the company said.  The operation lost $941M before interest & taxes in 2013, cutting the year’s EPS by $1.13.  In Q1, the company expects sales of $400-$450M in Canada with a loss of $150-$170M, excluding some items.  The stock shot up 3.98 (7%).  If you would like to lean more about TGT, click on this link:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=TGT&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Target’s Shares Jump as Chain Begins to Recover From Data Breach

Target




The Feb rally has flattened out this week.  Retail earnings are encouraging, even though improved sales has not always been part of the story.  There has not been significant news to support higher stock prices, other than the oversold market in Jan.  It's unclear why the bulls have given up this week.  But Dow is still in the red YTD, by 380 with 1/6 of the year behind us.

Dow Jones Industrials









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