Monday, February 3, 2014

Markets tumble on weaker US manufacturing growth

Dow sank 326 closing near the lows, decliners over advancers 6-1 & NAZ lost 106.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 459s & the REIT index dropped 5 to the 468s.. Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries rose in the falling stock market.  Oil settled at the lowest level in a week after a gauge on US manufacturing showed a drop in Jan.  Gold climbed as stocks sold off.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.03%

U.S. 2-year

0.30%

U.S. 10-year

2.58%

CLH14.NYM....Crude Oil Mar 14...96.52   ...0.97  (1.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




US banks  saw increased demand from businesses & consumers for lending & in turn made those loans more readily available, according to a Federal Reserve (FED) report.  “Domestic banks, on balance, reported having eased their lending standards on many types of business and consumer loans and having experienced increases in loan demand, on average, over the past three months,” the FED said in its quarterly survey of senior loan officers.  The survey shows banks loosening the reins of credit for many categories of lending, including commercial real estate, commercial & industrial loans for firms of all sizes, credit cards, auto loans & other consumer loans.  An exception was declining demand for mortgages.  The report supports forecasts for stronger economic growth among the policy makers, who trimmed their monthly bond purchases to $65B from $75B.  They see GDP growth picking up this year to 2.8-3.2%, according to their most recent forecasts released in Dec.  Banks also reported an improved outlook for 2014.  About 20-40% of banks said they expect delinquencies on most types of business loans to decline this year.  About 40% expect mortgage delinquencies & write offs to fall, & 15-20% expect credit-card loans & other consumer loans to improve.  The majority of banks said auto loans to borrowers with low credit scores would be an exception, & that delinquencies & charge-offs would increase.  The FED said large banks eased standards on mortgages, while small banks tightened them.  The share of banks easing & tightening was described as “modest.”  Demand for mortgages was weaker.  The survey was conducted from Dec 30 to Jan. 14.

U.S. Banks Ease Loan Standards in Fed Survey as Demand Rises


Bill Gates is poised to remain involved at Microsoft, a Dow stock, in an area of its deepest need: crafting must-have products.  As the board prepares to appoint Satya Nadella as the next CEO, it’s considering replacing Gates as board chairman.  He would remain a director & involved in product development, focusing less on administration, & is weighing going to work at least one day a week.  Gates championed Nadella’s candidacy during the CEO search, suggesting that the 2 will be able to collaborate well.  Nadella is an insider who’s well-versed in MSFTs tools for businesses, while Gates was instrumental in building innovative products that ushered in the PC age.  Even so, the company under his chairmanship has struggled to replicate those early successes in new areas, including mobile devices & internet services.  The stock lost 1.36.

Gates Seen Taking Bigger Products Role at Microsoft

Microsoft (MSFT)


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Google posted Q4 sales that topped estimates as retailers spent more on advertising during the holidays, making up for lower ad prices.  Revenue, excluding sales passed on to partners, rose 11% to $13.6B, while EPS excluding certain items was $12.01.  Analysts had projected sales of $13.4B & EPS of $12.25.  CEO Larry Page is fine-tuning the mobile strategy.  It’s exiting smartphone manufacturing & selling its Motorola handset unit to Lenovo for $2.9B.  While ads on phones make less money than on desktop computers, GOOG was able to generate income from retailers targeting online shoppers, who boosted e-commerce sales 15% to $61.8B during the holiday period, according to EMarketer.  Operating expenses, excluding the cost of revenues, rose 14% to $5.5B & net income rose 17% to $3.38B.  The Motorola mobile unit was purchased for $12.4B in 2012, pushing it into direct competition with hardware partners such as Samsung that use Android smartphone software.  Motorola again weighed on results during Q4 as revenue fell 18% to $1.24B.  But it’s continuing to invest.  Last month it spent $3.2B to buy Nest Labs, the digital thermostat maker.  Other revenue at GOOG, which includes the mobile Play store & hardware such as Chromecast, doubled from the year ago-period to $1.65B.  In the core business, prices for ads fell 11%, compared with a decline of 8% in the previous period.  At the same time, the volume of clicks on ads jumped 31% compared with a gain of 26% in the earlier period.  GOOG is still benefiting from its leadership in online advertising.  The company is expected to take 41% of the US digital-ad market this year with the closest #2, Facebook (FB), grabbing just 8.2%, according to EMarketer.  The high pried stock lost more than 47 in a very tough market for stocks.

Google Sales Top Estimates as Retail Ads Bolster Results

Google (GOOG)


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This was another very bad day for stocks. taking Dow down 1.2K YTD.  Selling was across the board which includes yield sensitive stocks.  In H2-2013, Dow kept rising while the yield stocks were largely left behind.  The new year has been a time when all news is bad news.  Last year the opposite was the case, all news was good news.  Earnings season is winding down & it gets an unspectacular grade with little to excite investors.  Fri will bring the big monthly jobs report, a test to see if the markets continue to regard all news as negative. 

Dow Jones Industrials

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