Thursday, February 13, 2014

Markets rise on Time Warner Cable buyout

Dow climbed 63, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 39.  The MLP index rose a fraction to the 467s (flirting with a new record high, but off highs in record territory) & the REIT index went up 1+ to go over 280.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries inched higher.  Oil was even & gold continued its rise, taking it to 1300 (not seen since Nov).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.03%

U.S. 2-year

0.31%

U.S. 10-year

2.74%

CLH14.NYM....Crude Oil Mar 14....100.34 Down ...0.03  (0.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




The Bund in Shanghai
Photo:   Bloomberg

China's trust assets surged 46% in 2013 to a record 10.9T yuan ($1.8T), underscoring investor interest in products that pay more than bank deposits even as default risks mount.  About 20B yuan of trust products had repayment difficulties in 2012, accounting for 0.27% of the industry’s assets at that time, the China Trustee Association said.  Asset quality is “quite sound and systemic risks are impossible” with 9.06B yuan of reserves set aside, the association said.  China averted its first trust default in at least a decade last month as investors in a 3B yuan high-yield product issued by China Credit Trust were bailed out days before it matured.  It has been estimated about 5.3T yuan of trust products will be due this year, up from 3.5T yuan in 2013.  With the help of guarantees on investments, trusts have overtaken insurance to become China’s biggest financial segment after banks.  Their assets under management surged more than 4 fold from the beginning of 2010 even as policy makers sought to curb money flows outside the formal banking system.  About 48% of the trust products were sold to provide finance for borrowers.  A quarter of the assets went to the infrastructure sector at the end of 2013, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the beginning of the year, while 10% were for real estate.  Investors in the China Credit Trust product recouped their principal after selling their rights to unidentified buyers days before the Jan 31 maturity.  China Credit Trust sold the investment in Feb 2011 with an indicated annual return of 9½-11% for different tranches.  Industrials &Commercial Bank of China distributed the product, which was structured to raise funds from wealthy investors for a coal miner that later collapsed.



CBS reported quarterly profit that beat estimates, helped by programming deals, & accelerated its stock buybacks by $1.5B.  EPS rose 20% to 76¢ from a year earlier.  EPS excluding some items was 78¢, exceeding the 76¢ estimate.  CBS, home of police drama “NCIS,” the most watched show on TV, is using its ratings dominance to wring money from distributors in retransmission fees, which allow pay-TV services to provide the network’s signal to subscribers.  The company is also licensing more shows to streaming services operated by Amazon.com (AMZN) & Hulu.  Sales increased 5.8% to $3.91B, beating the $3.82B estimate.  CBS will buy back $2B of shares in Q1, almost the same as it spent on repurchases in 2013.  The company has set a target of $2B by 2020 in retransmission fees from pay-TV systems & compensation from TV stations the network doesn’t own.  The stock jumped 2.75.
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CBS’s Quarterly Profit Surpasses Views on Programming Deals

CBS Corp (CBS)


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Comcast agreed to acquire Time Warner Cable for $45.2B in stock, a surprise deal that would combine the 2 largest US cable companies & creates a bulwark against competition from phone and satellite providers.  TWC investors will receive 2.875 CMSCA shares for each of their shares, valuing each TWC share at $158.82 (17% more than its closing price yesterday).  The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of 2014.  In sealing the deal, CMCSA CEO Brian Roberts trumped a bid from Charter (CHTR) which has courted TWC for months.  The merger also will help the companies cope with an industrywide decline in cable-TV viewers following years of inroads by phone & satellite companies, as well as newer internet services.  TWC shareholders will own about 23% of the company after transaction is completed.  The deal, which doesn’t carry a breakup fee for either side, will generate savings of about $1.5B & increase CMCSA free cash flow per share.  CMCSA also announced plans to buy back an additional $10B of its shares.  CHTR is unlikely to match this bid & is willing to study any assets Comcast would sell.  CMCSA plans to divest about 3M subscribers of the combined company to keep its market share below 30%.  TWC surged 9.49 & CMCSA dropped 2.29.
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Comcast Will Acquire Time Warner Cable for $45.2 Billion in All-Stock Deal

Time Warner Cable (TWC)


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Comcast (CMCSA)


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Acquisition activity was more important than drab economic data (retail sales & jobless data).  But the weather was very bad across much of the country which will be another blow for retail sales.  Dow went over $16K, but remains down more than 550 YTD & the recent mini rally does not seem to have broken negative thinking in the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials

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