Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Markets drift lower after weaker housing and consumer confidence data

Dow lost 27, decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ slid back 5.  The MLP index was up pocket change to the 458s & the REIT index was up pennies in the 283s.  Junk bond funds continued mixed & Treasuries gained after consumer confidence fell more than forecast.  Oil pulled back on projections that US supplies rose last week & concern that the weakening Chinese yuan will hurt growth in the country.  Gold climbed to the highest in almost 17 weeks on speculation that a sputtering US economy will boost demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)








Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.04%

U.S. 2-year

0.31%

U.S. 10-year

2.70%

CLJ14.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 14....101.80 Down ...1.02  (1.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Port of Hamburg
Photo:   Bloomberg

German exports surged the most in 3 years in Q4, bolstering an expansion in Europe’s largest economy that was also supported by investment.  Foreign sales rose 2.6% from Q3, while equipment & construction investment each climbed 1.4%, the Federal Statistics Office said.  German GDP expanded 0.4%, confirming a Feb 14 estimate.  With business confidence at the highest level in 2½ years & unemployment at a record low, Germany is providing the impetus to a fragile recovery in the rest of the euro area, its largest trading partner.  The data will help ECB decide whether more stimulus is needed to sustain growth in the 18-nation currency bloc.  The euro-area economy expanded 0.3% in Q4 amid stronger-than-expected expansions in France & the Netherlands & a return to growth in Italy.  At the same time, manufacturing is showing signs of slowing & inflation is less than half the level of just under 2% that the ECB defines as price stability.  In Germany, gov spending stagnated from the prior qtr & private consumption declined 0.1%.  Total domestic demand subtracted 0.7 percentage point from GDP, while net trade added 1.1 percentage points.  Imports climbed 0.6%.  GDP grew 1.4% from a year earlier when adjusted for working days.

German Exports Powered Fourth-Quarter Economic Growth


Macy's topped Q4 estimates after recording a smaller-than-projected charge for a cost-cutting program, even as winter weather hampered sales.  EPS was $2.16 versus $1.83 a year earlier.  Excluding one-time expenses, EPS was $2.31, beating the $2.17 estimate.  The belt-tightening effort, which involves eliminating about 2500 jobs & closing some stores, brought an $88M charge in Q4.  Macy’s had originally predicted expenses of as much as $135M.  The company also reiterated its forecasts for 2014, despite sluggish sales in Jan & Feb.  “Once warm spring weather arrives and our full assortment of fresh spring merchandise is in place, we believe customers will return to a more normalized pattern of shopping,” CEO Terry Lundgren said.  Revenue fell 1.6& to $9.2B & analysts had estimated $9.27B.  Sales at stores open at least a year climbed 1.4%, compared with the 2.5% predicted.  Harsh weather hampered sales in Jan, forcing 244 Macy’s & Bloomingdale’s stores to close at one point or another, Lundgren said.  “Business remained sluggish until Valentine’s Day,” he added.  Last month, the company forecast EPS of $4.40-$4.50 for the current fiscal year which compares $4.45 from analysts.  The company reaffirmed that forecast today, as well as its projection for a 2.5-3% gain in comparable sales this year.  As part of the cost reductions, Macy’s is combining its Midwest & North operations.  It’s also eliminating some merchandise planning & store positions, as well as central administrative jobs.  The workforce will remain at about 175K employees as it adds staff elsewhere.  Job reductions & other actions will save about $100M annually.  The stock shot up $3.19.  If you would like to learn more about Macy's, click on this link:
http://club.ino.com/trend/?symb=M&a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Macy’s Profit Surpasses Analysts’ Estimates Amid Smaller Job-Cut Expenses

Macy's (M)




Bank of America Branch
Photo:   Bloomberg

The biggest US banks & insurance companies would have to pay a quarterly 3.5 basis-point tax on assets exceeding $500B under a plan to be unveiled this week by Congress’s top Republican tax writer.  The proposal by Rep David Camp would raise taxes for about 10 companies, the largest banks along with non-bank institutions, deemed systemically important.  The bank tax, which isn’t likely to become law this year, is part of a comprehensive plan to be released by Camp to lower corp & individual rates & broaden the tax base.  Including a bank tax in the plan is a notable step by the Rep tax-committee chairman, because it echoes a proposal by the administration that Reps & some Dems have blocked since 2010.  Banks, which had been preparing for the possibility that the tax would be included in Camp’s plan, have opposed what Obama has called the “financial crisis responsibility fee.”  Banks maintain that it would counter with a goal of setting up a tax code that is neutral across industries.

Biggest Banks Said to Face Asset Tax in Republican Plan


Stocks are back to meandering.  The macro economic reports were not favorable but earnings kept buyers in the market.  Macy's is another example of how common lower revenue has become.  Earnings improvement comes from costs savings.  But Dow & the S&P 500 continue near record levels without a lot of economic data to support these levels.

Dow Jones Industrials








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