Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Markets rise after Yellen speaks

Dow rose 80, avdnacers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 17.  The MLP index jumped 3 to 466, inches from setting a new record, & the REIT index was flat at 278.  Junk bond funds saw selling & Treasuries pulled back, with money going into stocks.  Oil retreated from 100 & gold went higher, negative bets on the stock market.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.05%

U.S. 2-year

0.33%

U.S. 10-year

2.71%

CLH14.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 14...99.68 Down ...0.38  (0.4%)

GCG14.CMX...Gold Feb 14.....1,283.90 Up ....9.10 (0.7%)









Yellen Says Recovery in U.S. Labor Market Is ‘Far From Complete’
Photo:   Bloomberg

Federal Reserve (FED) Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank was on track to keep reducing its policy stimulus, even as she acknowledged the labor market recovery was "far from complete."  She said the FED would need to keep its eye on a broad range of labor market indicators, not just the unemployment rate, as it continued to assess the health of the jobs market.  Yellen nodded to the recent volatility in global financial markets, but said at this stage it does "not pose a substantial risk to the U.S. economic outlook."  She emphasized continuity in the policy strategy, saying she strongly supports the approach driven by Big Ben.  While the US unemployment rate has fallen by 1.5 percentage points since the latest bond-buying program began in Sep 2012, at 6.6% the rate remains "well above levels" seen as consistent with maximum sustainable employment, Yellen said.  "The recovery in the labor market is far from complete," she told the House Financial Services Committee.  Yellen said the FED will "likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings" if economic data broadly supports policymakers' expectation of improved labor markets & a rise in inflation.  However, the purchases are not on a pre-set course. 



Prices for single-family homes rose in 73% of US cities in Q4, fewer than in Q3, as surging values in the past 2 years started to reduce affordability.  The median transaction price for an existing home climbed from a year earlier in 119 of 164 metropolitan areas measured, the National Association of Realtors said.  In Q3, 88% of markets had increases.  While tight inventories & improving employment are bolstering the housing recovery, home-price gains are poised to decelerate as an increase in mortgage rates from record lows cuts into affordability.  Values have been rising faster than incomes, particularly in the West.  The nationwide median price for an existing single-family home rose 10.1% in Q4 from a year earlier to $197K (12.5% in Q3). 

Home Prices Rose in Fewer U.S. Markets in Fourth Quarter


Tomorrow the House will vote on raising the debt limit without conditions, Speaker John Boehner said, giving in to Dem insistence on a "clean measure."  Boehner said Dems will need to back the measure, which will get minimal Rep support.  “We’ll let the Democrats put the votes up,” Boehner said.  He said he had spoken to Nancy Pelosi, who told him there will be enough Dem support to pass the measure.  Last night, Reps had said they would move a debt-limit increase that would include benefits for military retirees.  But the pres & congressional Dems have said that a debt-ceiling increase must not be combined with any other policy measures.  “The bottom line is we need to get our work done,” Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions, a Rep, said.  Regarding a simple extension, Sessions said, “That’s what I think will end up passing.”  A suspension of the debt limit enacted by Congress in Oct expired last Fri.  Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said last week that borrowing authority may not last past Feb. 27.  Boehner has struggled to find enough support from divided Reps to increase the debt limit, joking last week that he’d have trouble getting enough votes from them even if the measure authorized sainthood for Mother Teresa.

House to Move U.S. Debt-Limit Bill Without Conditions


Janet spoke & the markets listened.  There were kind words indicating no major surprises coming from the FED.  A reduction in the bond buying program is widely accepted.  Raising the benchmark interest near zero remains down the road, well beyond the vision of traders.  No fight over raising the debt ceiling is also being welcomed by the markets.  But after the recent rise in the stock market, Dow is still down 700 YTD.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart








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