Dow shot up 102 (off the highs), decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ gained 6. The MLP index continued fractionally higher to 290. Junk bond funds were off a tad & Treasuries declined again, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury up to 2.55%. Oil jumped up 1+ to the high 62s (more below) & gold fell 6 to 1314.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.3993149297142319)
Pres Trump indicated he’s willing to split contentious immigration proposals into 2 stages, providing protections for young immigrants known as dreamers & increasing border security first, leaving tougher negotiations on comprehensive legislation for later. Trump's position, laid out today, may help break a stalemate that’s held up an agreement on budget limits & spending as a deadline to avert a gov shutdown approaches on Jan 19. He said he would support a “clean” bill that provides a legislation fix to replace a now ended Obama-era program, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, along with border security as part of a broader compromise on spending. But he didn't specify whether that meant his demands to restrict legal immigration, including family preferences & a visa lottery, could be deferred. Heading into the meeting, Dems & Reps were standing firm on their widely divergent positions on immigration & spending, threatening the chances for a deal to raise budget limits & to pass a stopgap funding measure to keep the gov operating past Jan 19. Dems have demanded legislation that would lift the threat of deportation for 800K young undocumented immigrants be part of any agreement. “Maybe we can do something,” Trump said as he began the meeting. The negotiations have been made more difficult by Trump's shifting & sometimes contradictory statements about his goals for the immigration legislation. After promising early in his term to deal compassionately with the undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children, the pres recently has emphasized tougher measures that appeal to his base: building a wall on the border with Mexico, ending the visa lottery system & restricting family-based immigration policies. Dems have said many of Trump's demands are too extreme & can't be included in a compromise. Central to the stand-off is Trump's action to discontinue the DACA policy which provided deportation protections for undocumented immigrants who arrived in the US as children. Trump gave lawmakers until Mar to come up with a legislative solution. Dems are demanding that a DACA fix be part of a year-end spending deal. They also want the spending legislation to include an agreement on new budget caps that provides for an equal boost for domestic & defense programs, a disaster relief package, Obamacare stabilization measures & other provisions. Reps want to see a bigger boost for defense spending. With Reps holding just 51 out of 100 Senate seats, at least 9 Dem votes are needed to push a deal thru the Senate, & many Reps say Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has tremendous leverage. Dems have yet to indicate whether they would supply enough votes to simply extend gov spending authority past Jan 19 to keep talks going.
Trump Lays Out Immigration Path in Key Step to Avoiding Shutdown
US crude production will soar to a record this year before rising even more in 2019, according to a gov forecast. Nationwide output will average 10.85M barrels a day next year & 10.27M this year, both surpassing the prior record of 9.6M pumped in 1970, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, which included the first estimates for 2019. Production will top 11M barrels a day in Nov 2019. The growth of North American shale production, which caused an estimated 5% increase in US crude output in 2017, has rocked the oil industry in the past few years, spurring OPEC & other traditional producers to cut output to trim global inventories. “Led by U.S. production, particularly the Permian Basin, and now new oil sands projects in Canada, non-OPEC production is forecast to continue growing through the end of 2019,” John Conti, the agency's acting administrator, said. “We expect to see growth near 2 million barrels per day in 2018 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2019.” WTI crude will average $55.33 a barrel this year, the EIA said, up from last month’s estimate of $52.77, & $57.43 in 2019. The global benchmark Brent is forecast to average $59.74 in 2018, up from $57.26 estimated in Dec, & $61.43 in 2019. The EIA increased its estimates for global production & demand in 2018. Output is seen at 100.3M barrels a day, up from 100M previously, with demand at 100.11M, compared with 99.96M.
Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, announced it delivered 737 commercial aircraft in 2017, driven by output of its 737 & 787 jets. BA also grew its backlog with 912 net orders valued at $134.8B at list prices. In 2016 the company delivered 748 aircraft & booked 668 net orders worth $94B at list prices. The latest numbers reflect growing demand, especially in the single-aisle market & likely puts the company ahead of its French rival Airbus. Gross orders for 2017 totaled 1053, with 865 from the 737 family & 107 from the 787 family of aircraft. BA did very well at the Paris Air Show earlier in the year. Despite being on Airbus' home turf in France, BA won 571 net new orders & commitments valued at $75.8B at list prices, while Airbus said it totaled 326. The stock soared 8.28 (3%).
If you would like to learn more about BA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Oil prices rose, with US crude touching its highest in more than 3 years, supported by OPEC-led production cuts & expectations that US crude inventories have dropped for an 8th week. OPEC & allies including Russia are keeping supply limits in place in 2018, a 2nd year of restraint, to reduce a price-denting glut of oil held in inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose 95¢ (1.5%) to $62.68 a barrel. Brent crude was up 79¢ (1.2%) at $68.57 per barrel. OPEC is cutting output by even more than it promised & the restraint is reducing oil stocks globally, a trend most visible in the US the world's largest & most transparent oil market. Supply reports this week are expected to show US crude stocks fell 3.9M barrels, an 8th week of decline. Many producers, still suffering from a 2014 price collapse, are enjoying the rally, although they are wary it will spur rival supply sources. Iran said that OPEC members were not keen on increased prices. Unrest in Iran, OPEC's 3rd-largest producer, has lent support to prices this year although output & exports have not been affected. Economic collapse is leading to involuntary production cuts in Venezuela, another OPEC member.
US crude hits 3-year high as oil prices climb on tighter market
Market breadth was not impressive, but the Dow had another spectacular gain (partially due to BA). Data continues to show the US economy is doing very well & earnings should bring out more stock buyers. Presently, the biggest impediment to the rally is dysfunctional DC which does not show any sign of ending. Chances are that the final deal for the budget will go down to the last hour, if not later However today the Dow had an excellent gain while gold was sold, a signal the bulls are happy to see.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Pres Trump indicated he’s willing to split contentious immigration proposals into 2 stages, providing protections for young immigrants known as dreamers & increasing border security first, leaving tougher negotiations on comprehensive legislation for later. Trump's position, laid out today, may help break a stalemate that’s held up an agreement on budget limits & spending as a deadline to avert a gov shutdown approaches on Jan 19. He said he would support a “clean” bill that provides a legislation fix to replace a now ended Obama-era program, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, along with border security as part of a broader compromise on spending. But he didn't specify whether that meant his demands to restrict legal immigration, including family preferences & a visa lottery, could be deferred. Heading into the meeting, Dems & Reps were standing firm on their widely divergent positions on immigration & spending, threatening the chances for a deal to raise budget limits & to pass a stopgap funding measure to keep the gov operating past Jan 19. Dems have demanded legislation that would lift the threat of deportation for 800K young undocumented immigrants be part of any agreement. “Maybe we can do something,” Trump said as he began the meeting. The negotiations have been made more difficult by Trump's shifting & sometimes contradictory statements about his goals for the immigration legislation. After promising early in his term to deal compassionately with the undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children, the pres recently has emphasized tougher measures that appeal to his base: building a wall on the border with Mexico, ending the visa lottery system & restricting family-based immigration policies. Dems have said many of Trump's demands are too extreme & can't be included in a compromise. Central to the stand-off is Trump's action to discontinue the DACA policy which provided deportation protections for undocumented immigrants who arrived in the US as children. Trump gave lawmakers until Mar to come up with a legislative solution. Dems are demanding that a DACA fix be part of a year-end spending deal. They also want the spending legislation to include an agreement on new budget caps that provides for an equal boost for domestic & defense programs, a disaster relief package, Obamacare stabilization measures & other provisions. Reps want to see a bigger boost for defense spending. With Reps holding just 51 out of 100 Senate seats, at least 9 Dem votes are needed to push a deal thru the Senate, & many Reps say Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has tremendous leverage. Dems have yet to indicate whether they would supply enough votes to simply extend gov spending authority past Jan 19 to keep talks going.
Trump Lays Out Immigration Path in Key Step to Avoiding Shutdown
US crude production will soar to a record this year before rising even more in 2019, according to a gov forecast. Nationwide output will average 10.85M barrels a day next year & 10.27M this year, both surpassing the prior record of 9.6M pumped in 1970, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, which included the first estimates for 2019. Production will top 11M barrels a day in Nov 2019. The growth of North American shale production, which caused an estimated 5% increase in US crude output in 2017, has rocked the oil industry in the past few years, spurring OPEC & other traditional producers to cut output to trim global inventories. “Led by U.S. production, particularly the Permian Basin, and now new oil sands projects in Canada, non-OPEC production is forecast to continue growing through the end of 2019,” John Conti, the agency's acting administrator, said. “We expect to see growth near 2 million barrels per day in 2018 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2019.” WTI crude will average $55.33 a barrel this year, the EIA said, up from last month’s estimate of $52.77, & $57.43 in 2019. The global benchmark Brent is forecast to average $59.74 in 2018, up from $57.26 estimated in Dec, & $61.43 in 2019. The EIA increased its estimates for global production & demand in 2018. Output is seen at 100.3M barrels a day, up from 100M previously, with demand at 100.11M, compared with 99.96M.
U.S. Expects Domestic Crude Output to Hit Records in 2018, 2019
Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, announced it delivered 737 commercial aircraft in 2017, driven by output of its 737 & 787 jets. BA also grew its backlog with 912 net orders valued at $134.8B at list prices. In 2016 the company delivered 748 aircraft & booked 668 net orders worth $94B at list prices. The latest numbers reflect growing demand, especially in the single-aisle market & likely puts the company ahead of its French rival Airbus. Gross orders for 2017 totaled 1053, with 865 from the 737 family & 107 from the 787 family of aircraft. BA did very well at the Paris Air Show earlier in the year. Despite being on Airbus' home turf in France, BA won 571 net new orders & commitments valued at $75.8B at list prices, while Airbus said it totaled 326. The stock soared 8.28 (3%).
If you would like to learn more about BA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Boeing delivers record number of commercial jets in 2017
Oil prices rose, with US crude touching its highest in more than 3 years, supported by OPEC-led production cuts & expectations that US crude inventories have dropped for an 8th week. OPEC & allies including Russia are keeping supply limits in place in 2018, a 2nd year of restraint, to reduce a price-denting glut of oil held in inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) rose 95¢ (1.5%) to $62.68 a barrel. Brent crude was up 79¢ (1.2%) at $68.57 per barrel. OPEC is cutting output by even more than it promised & the restraint is reducing oil stocks globally, a trend most visible in the US the world's largest & most transparent oil market. Supply reports this week are expected to show US crude stocks fell 3.9M barrels, an 8th week of decline. Many producers, still suffering from a 2014 price collapse, are enjoying the rally, although they are wary it will spur rival supply sources. Iran said that OPEC members were not keen on increased prices. Unrest in Iran, OPEC's 3rd-largest producer, has lent support to prices this year although output & exports have not been affected. Economic collapse is leading to involuntary production cuts in Venezuela, another OPEC member.
US crude hits 3-year high as oil prices climb on tighter market
Market breadth was not impressive, but the Dow had another spectacular gain (partially due to BA). Data continues to show the US economy is doing very well & earnings should bring out more stock buyers. Presently, the biggest impediment to the rally is dysfunctional DC which does not show any sign of ending. Chances are that the final deal for the budget will go down to the last hour, if not later However today the Dow had an excellent gain while gold was sold, a signal the bulls are happy to see.
Dow Jones Industrials
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