Monday, April 30, 2018

Higher markets led by McDonald's earnings report

Dow jumped up 115, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 31.  The MLP index was fractionally higher in the 358s & the REIT index rose 4 to 330.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries were fluctuated.  Oil was even in the 68s & gold dropped 9 to 1314.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil67.70
-0.40-0.6%

GC=FGold   1,311.30
-12.10-0.9%






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Treasury Sec Steve Mnuchin is getting ready for his upcoming trip to China.  “We’re looking to have a very frank discussion on trade and the issues of the trade imbalance, Mnuchin said.  “President Trump has been very clear over the past year that he very focused on the trade deficit and we are looking to correct that.”  Mnuchin made the comments at the 2018 Milken Institute Global Conference in California.  He said there are several issues to discuss during the trip including, intellectual property rights, forced technology & forced joint ventures.  When asked if China will slap tariffs on things like agricultural products & other things like airplanes, making those products more expensive for consumers, he said he's not concerned about China retaliating.  “We are just concerned that we have a good deal for American companies and American workers and that is something President Trump has been focused on,” he added.  “President trump has been very clear about the economic agenda going back to the campaign. It's been all about tax reform, regulatory relief and trade,” said Mnuchin.  “We’ve made incredible progress, we’re seeing the tax cuts just beginning to kick in, we’re making big progress on the economy, we’ve done a lot on regulatory relief and we’re focused on trade and the president is determined that we have free and fair and reciprocal trade.”  Mnuchin is cautiously optimistic about the meetings.  “I don’t want to predict what is going to happen or not going to happen. We are going to go over there, we’re going to have very frank discussions, these are issues President Trump has been focused on for over the last year & hopefully we’ll have significant progress" he said.  “We’re going there to make progress and that is our objective.”  The deadline for exempting certain nations from the tariffs on aluminum and steel is tomorrow.  “We are very careful about what we are doing. I think the president has been very clear, there have been ongoing discussions, said Mnuchin.  ”I think when these came out the president gave us time to address these issues and the president will make a decision on this.”

Treasury’s Mnuchin is optimistic about improved trade, tariffs and the economy

McDonald's (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported Q1 results that topped the forecast, helped by strength in intl markets & US consumers opting for more expensive burgers over value meals.  A multiyear turnaround plan launched by CEO Easterbrook 3 years ago, has brought menu changes, new technology to stores & restaurant upgrades to drive more traffic.  High-margin "gourmet" burgers which offer fresh and more expensive ingredients, costing $6 or $7 a time compared to the chain's $1 to $3 value options, raised the average US check value.  Sales at US restaurants rose 2.9%, topping expectations of 2.7%.  Global sales at stores open at least 13 months rose 5.5%, easily topping the estimate of 3.94% & reflecting a 7.8% surge in the company's more mature intl markets - Australia, Canada, France, Germany & the UK.  Excluding items, EPS was $1.79, beating the estimate of $1.67.  Revenue overall fell 9% as a result of refranchising, a cost-cutting move where the company sells MCD-owned outlets to a franchisee investor & receives only a cut of sales.  The shape of the results also ran contrary to recent qtrs, when MCD & other fast food chains have focused on battling each other with $ menus, discounts on beverages & limited-time menu items as consumer spending cools.  EPS rose to $1.72, from $$1.47 a year earlier.  The stock shot up 7.65.
If you would like to learn more about MCD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f

McDonald's gourmet burgers, global sales drive quarterly results beat


WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans boosted their spending by 0.4% in Mar, the best showing in 3 months . Meanwhile, a key gauge of inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve rose at the fastest pace in more than a year.  The Mar increase in consumer spending followed 2 months of very weak readings with no gain in Feb & only a 0.2% increase in Jan, the Commerce Dept reported.  The result is an encouraging sign that economic growth, which slowed in Q1, will accelerate in the current qtr.  Personal incomes advanced a moderate 0.3% in Mar, matching the Feb gain.  Consumer spending is considered key to economic growth, accounting for 70% of economic activity.  The economy slowed to growth of 2.3% in Q1, reflecting a slowing in consumer spending.  Many analysts believe stronger consumer spending this qtr will lift overall growth back to rates above 3%.  An inflation gauge tied to consumer spending advanced 1.9% in Mar compared to 12 months ago, the fastest pace since a similar 12-month gain of 1.9% in Feb 2017.  The Fed seeks to achieve moderate annual increases in inflation of around 2% but has fallen below that target for the past 6 years.  Now with unemployment at a 17-year low of 4.1%, economists expect that tight labor markets will finally start to lift wage gains & overall inflation.

US consumer spending rebounded 0.4% in March


Stocks got off to a good start in the new week.  MCD earnings are responsible for much of the advance in the Dow & ther indicators are giving signals of a mild advance.  So far earning reports have have been mixed with some high profile companies disappointing.  Mnuchin's talks with China will be more important in determining where stocks are going next.  The Dow keeps hanging in modestly above 24K.

Dow Jones Industrials








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