Sunday, April 15, 2018

Markets decline, led by bank stocks

Dow dropped 126, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ fell 33.  The MLP index lost 1 to the 247s & the REIT index fell 3+ to the 322s.  Junk bond funds inched up & Treasuries were slightly higher.  Oil was up pennies in the 67s (more below) & gold added 5 to 1348.

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Stocks were lower as weakness in bonk stocks added to the political & trade tensions weighing on the market. Treasury yields slid & oil rose for a 5th straight day, bringing its weekly gain to almost 9%.  All major benchmarks fell with the financial sector pacing losses on a decline of almost 1.5%.  Wells Fargo (WFC) warned that its better than anticipated Q1 results may change as a settlement with regulators looms, loans dropped & mortgage-banking results trailed predictions.  JPMorgan Chase (JPM & a Dow stock) & Citigroup (C) posted quarterly results that topped expectations, but shares of both companies were lower as JPM CEO Jamie Dimon said “the environment is intensely competitive and lending was flat for the quarter.”  The market's focus also is on political turmoil surrounding Pres Trump, potential military activity in Syria & trade tensions between the US & China.  On Thurs, Trump expressed optimism on trade deal with China & hinted that the US may rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade deal that he pulled out of shortly after taking office.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose but retreated from an earlier climb to a 6-week high, led by raw-material producers as industrial & precious metals advanced.  Aluminum headed for its biggest weekly increase since at least 1987 on concern US sanctions on Russia's United Co. Rusal will disrupt supplies.

U.S. Stocks Turn Lower as Banks Lead the Way Down: Markets Wrap


US consumer confidence slipped this month, mainly due to concerns about the Trump administration's trade policies on the US economy.  The Univ of Mich said the preliminary result of its consumer-sentiment index was 97.8 in Apr, down from 101.4 in Mar.  The preliminary Apr reading was below the 100.0 that had been expected.  The consumer sentiment index rose 0.8% in Apr from a year earlier.  A final reading for the month will be released Apr 27.  "The small decline was widely shared by all age and income subgroups and across all regions of the country," said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist.

US Consumer sentiment fell in March on trade policy worries


Russian lawmakers have submitted a wide-ranging bill that could freeze crucial exports to the US.  The bill, which was drafted by leading lawmakers at the State Duma in response to the new round of US sanctions announced last week, proposes a wide range of restrictions for US businesses in Russia & for cooperation with the US.  Among them is a proposal to ban or restrict titanium exports that are crucial for BA.  Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that the bill could be put up for vote next week.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters today that the Kremlin has yet to see the bill & come up with its decision on it.

Russia threatens to freeze cooperation with US


Baker Hughes reported that the number of active US rigs drillling for oil climbed 7 to 815 this week.  The oil-rig count had increased by 11 last week.  Total active US rig count, which includes oil & natural-gas rigs, rose 5 to 1008.  May West Texas Intermediate crude was up 34¢ (0.5%) from Thurs, to $67.41 a barrel.

Baker Hughes reports second straight in weekly rise in U.S. oil-rig count


Citigroup, the 4th largest US bank by assets, released Q1 that were better than expected.  EPS was $1.68, adjusted to exclude certain items, on revenue of $18.87B.  Analysts were expecting EPS of $1.61 on revenue of $18.86B.  The bank saw revenue from both consumer banking & institutional clients increase more than were expected.  The bank's fixed income markets revenue fell, while its equity markets revenue increased.  Analysts were expecting the company to see a boost in trading revenue.  The stock 1.46.
If you would like to learn more about Citi, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/C?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Citigroup sees higher 1Q revenue, earnings


Wells Fargo (WFC), the 3rd largest US bank by assets, confirmed in its Q1 results that regulators have offered a $1B fine to resolve auto insurance & mortgage lending abuses.  The company did not disclose whether it would agree to settle with the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau by paying a $1B fine.  "At this time, we are unable to predict final resolution of the CFPB/OCC matter and cannot reasonably estimate our related loss contingency."  In Q1, revenue decreased, year-over-year, but the company still managed to grow its earnings.  EPS was $1.12 (adjusted) on revenue of $21.9B.  Analysts forecast EPS be $1.06 on revenue of $21.73B.  In Q1-2017, EPS was $1.00 on revenue of $22B.  The bank said it may have to revise its quarterly results to reflect the final settlement.  CEO Tim Sloane said the bank had already closed 58 branches in Q1 & will close a total of 300 this year.  The stock gave back 1.69.
If you would like to learn more about WFC, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WFC?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Wells Fargo quarterly earnings rise, revenue slips


JPMorgan (JPM) reported its biggest quarterly profit ever getting a huge assist from the tax law passed late last year.  Banks are expected to be major beneficiaries of the tax overhaul, which sharply lowered corp tax rates.  The results of JPM, the nation's largest bank by assets & deposits, were primarily driven by 2 factors: higher interest rates, which have allowed banks to charge more for customers to borrow & the lower corp tax rate.  However, JPM had to set aside more money to cover bad loans in its consumer bank, where delinquencies have been steadily edging higher.  While pretax income rose by $2B, the company said it effectively paid $240M less in taxes compared to a year earlier.  The bank paid an effective tax rate of 18.3%, compared with a rate of 22.7% a year earlier.  Before the changes to tax law, its effective tax rate averaged in the high 20% range.  CEO  "The global economy continues to do well, and we remain optimistic about the positive impact of tax reform in the U.S. as business sentiment remains upbeat, and consumers benefit from job and wage growth," CEO Dimon.  In total, EPS $2.37, up from $1.65, beating forecasts.  Quarterly revenue was $28.52B, up from $25.85B.  The stock dropped 3.31.
If you would like to learn more about JPM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JPM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

JPMorgan posts record profit as banks benefit from tax law


This was an uninspiring day for stocks.  The big banks reported less than so-so earnings.  Trade negotiations are droning on, as could have been expected.  And a strike on Syria has been postponed, creating a lot of uncertainty about what's going on in the MidEast.  The Dow advanced 430 this week but finished on a down note today.  It continues to remain close 24K as it has done for weeks.

Dow Jones Industrials









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