Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Mixed markets after earnings reports and rising interest rates

Dow fell 19, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ gave back 32.  The MLP index lost 1 to 261 & the REIT index was even in the 321s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were sold again.  Oil crawled up pennies in the 68s & gold recovered 6 to 1330.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil68.80
+0.16+0.2%

GC=FGold  1,328.90
+4.90+0.4%







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Major US equity indexes followed European & Asian stocks higher as the corp earnings season gathers pace.  Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pierced the 3% level for the first time since 2014, while the $ retreated from the highest level since Jan.  Corp earnings remained in focus with 180 S&P 500 firms reporting this week.  Alphabet (GOOG) slipped as capital spending raised concerns on profit margins.  Eli Lily (LLY) rallied after boosting its revenue forecast.  3M (MMM, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat) slumped after cutting the top end of its sales outlook, while Coca-Cola (KO, another Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat) was little changed on its results.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Index eked out a 2nd day rising as traders assessed a mixed bag of corp results.  The ¥ retreated, helping spur Japan's Topix index to the highest in almost 2 months & Chinese shares rallied on signs the gov may ease off tightening measures if warranted.  Investors are weighing the implications of climbing bond yields that have been spurred in part by higher commodity prices & concern surrounding their inflationary impact on the wider economy.  But volatility in interest-rate markets remains low & equity price swings are well off the highs seen earlier this year, indicating investors believe rising borrowing costs may not be enough to cause outsized pain to equities -- for now.  West Texas oil approached $69 a barrel amid flaring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East & expectations for a decline in US crude stockpiles.

Stocks Climb in U.S; Treasuries Finally Breach 3%: Markets Wrap


Caterpillar (CAT & a Dow stock) raised its earnings forecast in a sign that industries from mining to energy are gaining momentum amid a stronger global economy (assuming no trade wars).  The top maker of construction & mining equipment shares surged after lifting its 2018 profit projection by about 24%.  Q1 results beat estimates on sales & earnings as demand for the signature yellow machines accelerates.  The company saw continued strength for construction in North America & infrastructure in China.  The company is reaping the benefits as years of cost cutting boost margins amid a broadening recovery in mining & construction.  Last week, the IMF predicted the world economy's strongest upswing since 2011 will continue for the next 2 years.  The outlook comes after worries of a trade war helped send CAT shares to their worst quarterly performance since 2015.  The company expects adjusted EPS for 2018 of $10.25-11.25.  That compares with the $8.25-9.25 that the manufacturer projected in Jan & the $9.27 analyst estimate.  The outlook assumes continued global economic growth.  Any potential impacts from future geopolitical risks & increased trade restrictions have not been included in the outlook.  The stock jumped up 4.66.
If you would like to learn more about CAT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CAT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Caterpillar Just Gave a Huge Vote of Confidence to the Global Economy

Coca-Cola (KO) has pushed into all sorts of new kinds of beverages -- from drinking vinegars to protein shakes.  But a big source of growth in Q1 came from a more familiar place: carbonated soft drinks.  Even as US consumers reportedly move away from artificial sweeteners, the company's earnings were boosted by gains in Diet Coke & Coca-Cola Zero Sugar.  Diet Coke in particular posted a comeback, with a major redesign spawning growth in North America for the first time since 2010.  “We got off to a strong start returning Diet Coke to growth in North America,” CEO James Quincey said.  “Now we recognize it’s still very early in the process, but we’re encouraged by the initial consumer response. Importantly I’m pleased to see the team take bold action to change the trajectory of the results.”  The soda news offers a glimmer of optimism for a company that has struggled to show investors a path for growth, although a full turnaround still has a long way to go.  Diet Coke's revival is a particularly remarkable feat given it's been in decline for years as US drinker tastes changed.  Though it remains the 3d-largest carbonated soft drink in the US, Diet Coke saw volume drop 4.3% last year.  But it seems Americans weren’t finished with diet sodas after all, just waiting for a new look.  KO in Jan launched the biggest-ever makeover for its original zero-calorie brand, releasing its classic Diet Coke & 4 new flavors in taller, skinnier cans, spurring the American rebound.  The new version of Coca-Cola Zero Sugar also reaped rewards: globally, the brand posted double-digit gains.  Even Coca-Cola Classic grew 3%.  “I hope the trend continues,” Quincey said of Diet Coke's turnaround.  “I’m encouraging the team to continue to learn and be bold with the next round of actions.”  Its non-branded products, the healthier waters & juices, also did well.  Picking up high-growth smaller brands is part of the company's strategy of diversifying its portfolio to reach consumers during more drinking occasions.  The stock  fell 75¢.
If you would like to learn more about KO, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/KO?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Coke Finds Out That Americans Still Love Their Soda After All

Earnings reports were inconclusive.  Some are coming in good, but others are causing worries for investors.  Higher interest rates are keeping potential stock buyers on the sidelines.  The Dow continues to slosh around, a little above 24K where it's been for weeks.  Today's mixed earnings are not a good sign, especially since the better ones tend to the first reported.

Dow Jones Industrials








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