Dow shot up 293, advancers modestly over decliners & NAZ went up 71, The MLP index lost 1+ to the 248s & the REIT index crawled up to the 325s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were hit with selling. Oil climbed in the 67s (more below) & gold was sold heavily, down 21 to 1338.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.592671116830888)
Pres Trump told lawmakers he is considering rejoining the Asia-Pacific trade pact he withdrew from shortly after taking office as he expressed confidence the US is headed toward resolving trade conflicts without economic disruption. A week after escalating trade tensions with his threat to impose tariffs on an additional $100B in Chinese products, Trump said the 2 countries ultimately may end up levying no new tariffs on each other. “Now we’re really negotiating and I think they’re going to treat us really fairly,” Trump said during a White House meeting with Rep governors & lawmakers from farm states, “I think they want to.” The remarks sent another conciliatory signal the administration has been sending this week on a trade war of words that's rattled markets. Trump also indicated that talks are progressing toward successful renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump told the lawmakers he deputized economic adviser Larry Kudlow & US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to explore re-entering the Trans-Pacific trade accord. Senator Ben Sasse told reporters of Trump's commitments. “He multiple times reaffirmed the point that TPP might be easier to join now,” said Sasse. The GOP political leaders are especially concerned about the impact trade retaliation from China could have on US agriculture, which relies heavily on exports to China. The Asian nation said listed US soybeans & pork among its prime targets for proposed retaliatory duties. During his first week in office, Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). The pact, which was conceived as a counterweight to China's dominance in the region, had been negotiated under the Obama administration but never approved by Congress. The 11 remaining nations, representing 13% of global output including Japan & Canada, finalized a revised version of the trade pact last month, renaming it the Comprehensive & Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership or CPTPP. Trump suggested in Feb he could be open to rejoining the trade bloc during a news conference with Malcolm Turnbull, the prime minister of Australia, which is in the CPTPP. One White House official said that while the pres prefers negotiating bilateral trade deals, a multilateral deal with the TPP countries would counter Chinese competition & would be faster than negotiating one-on-one with each of the 11 other nations. Trump cited a speech by Chinese Pres Xi Jinping that the US pres interprets as a signal China is about to open its markets to more U.S. goods. “He’s going to get rid of a lot of taxes and tariffs,” Trump said of Xi. Xi pledged a “new phase of opening up” Tues in a keynote address to the Boao Forum for Asia. While the speech offered little new policy & made no mention of Trump, Xi affirmed or expanded on proposals to increase imports, lower foreign-ownership limits on manufacturing & expand protection to intellectual property -- all issues central to Trump's trade complaints. Trump clearly regarded the remarks as conciliatory & said again today that it was a “good speech.” “Very thankful for President Xi of China’s kind words on tariffs and automobile barriers,” Trump Tweeted on Tues. “Also, his enlightenment on intellectual property and technology transfers. We will make great progress together!”
Trump Weighs Rejoining TPP, Toning Down China Trade Threat
Pres Trump said he'll meet with national security advisers today to discuss the US response to the alleged chemical weapons attack on civilians by the regime in Syria & that a decision on any retaliation will come “fairly soon.” “We’re looking very very seriously, very closely at that whole situation, and we’ll see what happens folks, we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters. “It’s too bad that the world puts us in a position like that.” Trump Tweeted earlier today that a US attack on Syrian Pres al-Assad's forces could come “very soon, or not so soon at all.” That tweet followed by about 24 hours a Twitter post by the pres in which he warned Russia to “get ready” for a missile attack on its ally to punish Assad for the presumed chemical weapons attack near Damascus. Defense Sec Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee today that his greatest fear from a potential strike on Syria is that the conflict would “escalate out of control, if you get my drift.” Russian, Turkish & Iranian forces are operating in Syria along with US forces combating Islamic State militants, risking a conflagration if a US strike goes awry. Mattis said that the US aim in Syria is to defeat Islamic State, not “to engage in the civil war itself.” But referring to the use of chemical weapons, Mattis said that “some things are simply inexcusable, beyond the pale” & require a response. Mattis said the Pentagon will present options for retaliation to Trump today. US stocks rose & Treasuries retreated as investors speculated that tensions in the Middle East won't escalate into a destabilizing conflict. Russian Pres Putin, Assad's ally, appealed for common sense in a world growing “more chaotic.” Putin's spokesman said that the Russian & US militaries are maintaining contact via a telephone hotline. Russia is counting on cooler heads to prevail, said Frants Klintsevich, a senator who's a member of the Senate defense & security committee.
Trump Says He’ll Review Syria Strike Options, Make Decision ‘Soon’
A top Senate Rep said he warned Pres Donald Trump in a private meeting that an attempt to claw back $B in domestic spending from last month’s $1.3T spending bill may not even get enough GOP votes to pass the Senate. Senator Richard Shelby, who’s taken over chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee, said acting on Trump's plan to seek revisions in the spending plan would blow up an agreement reached after more than a month of negotiations with Dem. “My view is that when you make a deal with Democrats you’ve made a deal and you shouldn’t go back on your word,” Shelby said. “I told him he may not have the votes for that," he said. "We may not act on in it in the committee." Trump signed the spending legislation last month after threatening to veto it & calling it “ridiculous,” even though the administration was involved in the negotiations. The bill increased military spending by $80B this year above previous spending limits & non-defense spending by $63B. But it didn't include money Trump sought to build a wall along the southern border. Shortly afterward, the White House began talking with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a potential successor to House Speaker Paul Ryan, about using a budget maneuver called rescission to cut some of the domestic spending. But the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, Rodney Frelinghuysen, also has thrown cold water on the idea. “I don’t think it’s a great idea because keeping your word is pretty important," the NJ Republican said on Tues. The obscure provision of the 1974 budget act that the White House wants to use allows Congress to cancel spending with a simple majority in the Senate instead of 60 votes, meaning Dems can be bypassed.
Trump That Plan to Cut Spending May Not Have Enough Support
Oil prices hovered near highs last reached in late 2014, pressured by a stronger $, but supported by mounting political tension in the Middle East & shrinking global oil inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished the session 25¢ higher at $67.07, posting their best settlement since Dec3, 2014. Brent crude futures were at $72.02, down 4¢ from their last close. Both Brent & WTI yesterday hit their highest intraday level since late 2014 at $73.09 & $67.45 a barrel respectively after Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles over Riyadh Pres Trump warned Russia of imminent military action in Syria. Resulting geopolitical fears had pushed fundamentals aside. Today, OPEC said the global oil stocks surplus was close to evaporating due to healthy energy demand & its own supply cuts. The group is producing oil below its targets, meaning the world needs to use stocks to meet rising demand. OPEC said in its monthly report oil stocks in the developed world fell by 17.4M barrels in Feb to 2.854B barrels, around 43M barrels above the latest 5-year average. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said the global oil glut has effectively shrunk by 9/10 since the start of 2017. "We have seen an accelerated shrinkage of stocks in storage from unparalleled highs of about 400 million barrels to about 43 million above the five-year average," Barkindo said. US crude oil inventories rose 3.3M barrels to 428.64M barrels, while US crude production last week hit a record 10.53M barrels per day (bpd). Continuing concern over a prolonged trade dispute between the US & China also kept markets on edge.
US crude ekes out another 3-year closing high
News on the tariff front & Syria was positive, giving a boost to stocks. Once again, market breadth was weak. The news on tariffs & Syria is still iffy. Trade relations with China continue to be rocky & Trump is said to be weighing 8 targets in Syria (he has been lining up support from western allies who will generally support an attack). Saudi Arabia has been having missiles fired at it from Yemen. However the bulls won out today & the Dow is solidly back over 24K (although it closed more than 100 below session highs). High volatility continues to describe the stock market.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
Pres Trump told lawmakers he is considering rejoining the Asia-Pacific trade pact he withdrew from shortly after taking office as he expressed confidence the US is headed toward resolving trade conflicts without economic disruption. A week after escalating trade tensions with his threat to impose tariffs on an additional $100B in Chinese products, Trump said the 2 countries ultimately may end up levying no new tariffs on each other. “Now we’re really negotiating and I think they’re going to treat us really fairly,” Trump said during a White House meeting with Rep governors & lawmakers from farm states, “I think they want to.” The remarks sent another conciliatory signal the administration has been sending this week on a trade war of words that's rattled markets. Trump also indicated that talks are progressing toward successful renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump told the lawmakers he deputized economic adviser Larry Kudlow & US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to explore re-entering the Trans-Pacific trade accord. Senator Ben Sasse told reporters of Trump's commitments. “He multiple times reaffirmed the point that TPP might be easier to join now,” said Sasse. The GOP political leaders are especially concerned about the impact trade retaliation from China could have on US agriculture, which relies heavily on exports to China. The Asian nation said listed US soybeans & pork among its prime targets for proposed retaliatory duties. During his first week in office, Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). The pact, which was conceived as a counterweight to China's dominance in the region, had been negotiated under the Obama administration but never approved by Congress. The 11 remaining nations, representing 13% of global output including Japan & Canada, finalized a revised version of the trade pact last month, renaming it the Comprehensive & Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership or CPTPP. Trump suggested in Feb he could be open to rejoining the trade bloc during a news conference with Malcolm Turnbull, the prime minister of Australia, which is in the CPTPP. One White House official said that while the pres prefers negotiating bilateral trade deals, a multilateral deal with the TPP countries would counter Chinese competition & would be faster than negotiating one-on-one with each of the 11 other nations. Trump cited a speech by Chinese Pres Xi Jinping that the US pres interprets as a signal China is about to open its markets to more U.S. goods. “He’s going to get rid of a lot of taxes and tariffs,” Trump said of Xi. Xi pledged a “new phase of opening up” Tues in a keynote address to the Boao Forum for Asia. While the speech offered little new policy & made no mention of Trump, Xi affirmed or expanded on proposals to increase imports, lower foreign-ownership limits on manufacturing & expand protection to intellectual property -- all issues central to Trump's trade complaints. Trump clearly regarded the remarks as conciliatory & said again today that it was a “good speech.” “Very thankful for President Xi of China’s kind words on tariffs and automobile barriers,” Trump Tweeted on Tues. “Also, his enlightenment on intellectual property and technology transfers. We will make great progress together!”
Trump Weighs Rejoining TPP, Toning Down China Trade Threat
Pres Trump said he'll meet with national security advisers today to discuss the US response to the alleged chemical weapons attack on civilians by the regime in Syria & that a decision on any retaliation will come “fairly soon.” “We’re looking very very seriously, very closely at that whole situation, and we’ll see what happens folks, we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters. “It’s too bad that the world puts us in a position like that.” Trump Tweeted earlier today that a US attack on Syrian Pres al-Assad's forces could come “very soon, or not so soon at all.” That tweet followed by about 24 hours a Twitter post by the pres in which he warned Russia to “get ready” for a missile attack on its ally to punish Assad for the presumed chemical weapons attack near Damascus. Defense Sec Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee today that his greatest fear from a potential strike on Syria is that the conflict would “escalate out of control, if you get my drift.” Russian, Turkish & Iranian forces are operating in Syria along with US forces combating Islamic State militants, risking a conflagration if a US strike goes awry. Mattis said that the US aim in Syria is to defeat Islamic State, not “to engage in the civil war itself.” But referring to the use of chemical weapons, Mattis said that “some things are simply inexcusable, beyond the pale” & require a response. Mattis said the Pentagon will present options for retaliation to Trump today. US stocks rose & Treasuries retreated as investors speculated that tensions in the Middle East won't escalate into a destabilizing conflict. Russian Pres Putin, Assad's ally, appealed for common sense in a world growing “more chaotic.” Putin's spokesman said that the Russian & US militaries are maintaining contact via a telephone hotline. Russia is counting on cooler heads to prevail, said Frants Klintsevich, a senator who's a member of the Senate defense & security committee.
Trump Says He’ll Review Syria Strike Options, Make Decision ‘Soon’
A top Senate Rep said he warned Pres Donald Trump in a private meeting that an attempt to claw back $B in domestic spending from last month’s $1.3T spending bill may not even get enough GOP votes to pass the Senate. Senator Richard Shelby, who’s taken over chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee, said acting on Trump's plan to seek revisions in the spending plan would blow up an agreement reached after more than a month of negotiations with Dem. “My view is that when you make a deal with Democrats you’ve made a deal and you shouldn’t go back on your word,” Shelby said. “I told him he may not have the votes for that," he said. "We may not act on in it in the committee." Trump signed the spending legislation last month after threatening to veto it & calling it “ridiculous,” even though the administration was involved in the negotiations. The bill increased military spending by $80B this year above previous spending limits & non-defense spending by $63B. But it didn't include money Trump sought to build a wall along the southern border. Shortly afterward, the White House began talking with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a potential successor to House Speaker Paul Ryan, about using a budget maneuver called rescission to cut some of the domestic spending. But the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, Rodney Frelinghuysen, also has thrown cold water on the idea. “I don’t think it’s a great idea because keeping your word is pretty important," the NJ Republican said on Tues. The obscure provision of the 1974 budget act that the White House wants to use allows Congress to cancel spending with a simple majority in the Senate instead of 60 votes, meaning Dems can be bypassed.
Trump That Plan to Cut Spending May Not Have Enough Support
Optimism among American manufacturers is at record
highs thanks to the after-effects of the recently-implemented tax
reform law, a new survey shows. More than 93%
of manufacturers have a positive outlook on their company’s prospects in
the US economy, the 2nd-highest level ever recorded by the
National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), its most recent quarterly
survey revealed. Meanwhile, optimism among small manufacturers was at
its highest level ever recorded throughout the survey's 20 year history,
94.5% of companies reported that they were positive about their future. Wage
growth among those manufacturers surveyed also rose at the fastest pace
in 17 years. Despite a strengthening labor market, wage growth has
remained sluggish in the overall US economy as productivity growth
stagnates. However, the Trump administration is hopeful that an uptick
in investment in the economy will begin to reverse those trends, a
sentiment echoed by NAM pres Jay Timmons. “Empowered
by tax reform and regulatory relief, manufacturers are now investing in
our people through new jobs, higher wages, bonuses and growing our
operations right here in the United States,” Timmons said. The survey showed that manufacturers expected
full-time employment to increase by 2.9% on average over the next year,
an all-time high by the survey's standards. Companies also said capital
investments are likely to rise by 3.9% over the next 12 months, while
inventories are expected to rise by 1.7%. Among
the items manufacturers are hoping to see moving forward in order to
continue boosting optimism in the sector are the implementation of the
$1.5T infrastructure revamp, continued deregulation &
increased opportunity to sell products overseas. The top concern for companies was the ability to attract & maintain qualified workers.
Trump tax cut boosts manufacturer optimism to record
Oil prices hovered near highs last reached in late 2014, pressured by a stronger $, but supported by mounting political tension in the Middle East & shrinking global oil inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished the session 25¢ higher at $67.07, posting their best settlement since Dec3, 2014. Brent crude futures were at $72.02, down 4¢ from their last close. Both Brent & WTI yesterday hit their highest intraday level since late 2014 at $73.09 & $67.45 a barrel respectively after Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles over Riyadh Pres Trump warned Russia of imminent military action in Syria. Resulting geopolitical fears had pushed fundamentals aside. Today, OPEC said the global oil stocks surplus was close to evaporating due to healthy energy demand & its own supply cuts. The group is producing oil below its targets, meaning the world needs to use stocks to meet rising demand. OPEC said in its monthly report oil stocks in the developed world fell by 17.4M barrels in Feb to 2.854B barrels, around 43M barrels above the latest 5-year average. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said the global oil glut has effectively shrunk by 9/10 since the start of 2017. "We have seen an accelerated shrinkage of stocks in storage from unparalleled highs of about 400 million barrels to about 43 million above the five-year average," Barkindo said. US crude oil inventories rose 3.3M barrels to 428.64M barrels, while US crude production last week hit a record 10.53M barrels per day (bpd). Continuing concern over a prolonged trade dispute between the US & China also kept markets on edge.
US crude ekes out another 3-year closing high
News on the tariff front & Syria was positive, giving a boost to stocks. Once again, market breadth was weak. The news on tariffs & Syria is still iffy. Trade relations with China continue to be rocky & Trump is said to be weighing 8 targets in Syria (he has been lining up support from western allies who will generally support an attack). Saudi Arabia has been having missiles fired at it from Yemen. However the bulls won out today & the Dow is solidly back over 24K (although it closed more than 100 below session highs). High volatility continues to describe the stock market.
Dow Jones Industrials
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