Monday, April 9, 2018

Markets rebound after last week's decline and trade tenions ease

Dow shot up 270, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ advanced 106.  The MLP index went up 1+ to the 241s & the REIT index lost 2+ to the 326s.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were sold while stocks were being purchased.  Oil climbed 1+ to the 63s & gold was even at 1336.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil62.98
+0.92 +1.5%

GC=FGold  1,335.70
-0.40  -0.0%







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The most punitive US sanctions yet to descend on Russian companies & oligarchs are battering the nation's assets as the Kremlin scrambles to contain the damage.  In the first trading day since dozens of Russian tycoons & companies were slapped with penalties, Moscow-traded stocks headed for the biggest drop in 4 years, the currency slid the most in the world & the nation's credit risk soared.  Among those named by sanctions were Oleg Deripaska, who owns aluminum giant United Co. Rusal.  Revealing the potential ripple effect of being cut off from its western clients, Rusal said it was highly likely to default on debt & its shares tumbled 28% in Moscow.  While Russian companies have faced a slew of sanctions since the conflict with Ukraine sparked the worst standoff with the US & Europe since the Cold War, the latest penalties are markedly more devastating.  For the first time, major publicly traded Russian companies with global clients are on the black list.  Even the Kremlin's attempt to assuage concerns by promising to protect billionaires couldn't slow the investor flight.  The benchmark MOEX Russia Index sank 8.6%, the most since Mar 2014 at the height of the Crimea conflict.  The ruble weakened 3.1% crossing 60 per $ for the first time since Nov.  The tables have turned against Russia quickly in the past few weeks since the UK, accused the country of poisoning an ex-spy on British soil. In retaliation, the UK & its allies have announced a slew of measures,  including coordinated expulsions of more than 150 Russian diplomats last month.  The new sanctions also coincide with a worsening of tensions between Russia & the US over the war in Syria after an alleged chemical attack outside Damascus Apr 7.  Pres Trump warned of a “big price to pay," pointing the finger at Putin & Iran as being “responsible for backing Animal Assad.”

Russian Markets Plunge After U.S. Ups Ante With the Worst Sanctions Yet

Stocks climbed with Asian equities as investors looked to China's Pres Xi Jinping to calm a trade dispute between the world's 2 largest economies.  Treasuries fell along with gold.  The S&P 500 rose after last week's 1.4% tumble & strength in semiconductors, software & technology hardware pushed the NAZ 100 & Nasdaq Composite up more than 1%.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also soared more than 1% & the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index advanced.  The yuan pared its gains as China's leaders were said to evaluate the impact of gradually depreciating the currency.  Commodities rebounded after their worst weekly drop since mid-Mar, with oil & industrial metals rallying.  Traders are anticipating a statesman-like performance from President Xi in a speech today at the Boao Forum for Asia.  While senior officials are examining options in case matters get worse, he was expected to deliver a strong warning about the consequences of an escalation to a full trade war.  Currency moves, including a recovery in emerging markets & weaker gold prices, bore out the returning sense of calm.  European stocks pared their gains, after earlier hitting a 3-week high, while a measure of global shares advanced.  Safe-haven assets showed little reaction to a missile attack on a Syrian airbase that Russia blamed on Israel.  Meanwhile, in Russia the currency plunged & the Moex Russia Index of stocks tumbled the most in 4 years after the US sanctioned prominent Kremlin-connected billionaires & their companies.

Stocks Rise as China's Xi Seen Calming Tensions: Markets Wrap


Pres Trump predicted China will be first to buckle as the world's largest economies teeter on the brink of a trade war that’s sent financial markets reeling, without indicating where his assessment sprang from.  “China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do,”  Trumped tweeted yesterday.  “Taxes will become reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property.”  He also said that no matter what happens, “President Xi and I will always be friends,” referring to Chinese Pres Xi Jinping.  The comments follow a week of rising tensions on trade, punctuated by the Trump's surprise order Thurs that the US identify additional Chinese goods to target & Beijing's immediate vow that it won't back down.  Top members of his economic team, speaking on yesterday, defended the US threats to impose tariffs on Chinese imports & framed the moves as part of a longer-term strategy for growth -- while suggesting a trade war can be averted.  “I think it’s going to generate very positive results which will grow” the economies of the US, China & the world, Larry Kudlow, Trump's top economic adviser, said.  Kudlow added while he would support imposing tariffs if negotiations with China fail, nothing has happened yet.  In another interview, Kudlow acknowledged market “jitters” but said “we’re not gonna to end up in a trade war.”  Treasury Sec Steve Mnuchin said that the US objective “is to continue to have discussions with China.”  Trump escalated the dispute late Thurs by instructing the US Trade Representative's office to consider tariffs on an additional $100B in Chinese imports, raising to $150B the amount of Chinese goods under consideration.  “Rather than remedy its misconduct, China has chosen to harm our farmers and manufacturers,” Trump said.  China proposed duties on $50B in US products from aircraft to soybeans after the US targeted steel & aluminum imports.  It has threatened to respond proportionately & “counterattack with great strength” if the US makes good on the latest proposal.

Trump Predicts China Will Be First to Buckle in Trade Dispute


Stocks are taking a breather & bargain hunters have returned to bid up prices.  However the intl scene is filled with tensions & uncertainty.  Just a few countries with headaches include: Russia, Syria, China & Venezuela.  The bulls need to prove that today's rise is serious.  For a start, they're happy to see the Dow above 24K.  Now they need to stimulate more buying in stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials









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