Dow soared 293, advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ gained 81. The MLP index was fractionally higher to 250 & the REIT index rose 1 to the 325s. Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were sold. Oil slid lower in the 66s & gold dropped a very big 18 to 1241 after its recent rally.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Stocks rose & Treasuries retreated as investors speculated that Middle East tensions won't erupt into a destabilizing conflict. Crude slid after climbing more than 7% this week. All major benchmarks were were higher following hints from Pres Trump that military action in Syria may not be imminent, while Russia toned down its war rhetoric. The calls for geopolitical calm helped equities ignore overnight trading rumblings from China, which dragged most Asian gauges lower. The € fell after a report that European industrial output unexpectedly declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Gov bonds of most euro-region countries rose after minutes of the latest ECB policy meeting struck a dovish tone. Investors seem wedged between competing catalysts. Yesterday, a key US inflation measure sped to the highest in a year, but traders were still rattled after Trump warned Russia in a tweet to “get ready” for missiles to be launched at Syria. Separately, a bipartisan effort emerged in Congress to protect special counsel Robert Mueller from being fired, a move that points to escalating political risk in the US. Meanwhile, Fed minutes showed officials leaned toward a slightly faster pace of policy tightening at their Mar meeting, even as they saw clear “downside risks” for the biggest economy from retaliatory trade duties. China will “unquestionably” retaliate if the US further escalates trade tension, a senior Chinese trade official said. Tension in the Middle East pushed down most of the stock benchmarks in the region, but it gave a break to oil-rich Russia, where recent crude gains helped the ruble bounce back from the lowest level since 2016.
U.S. Stocks Advance After Middle East War Talk Cools
Pres Trump said an attack on Syria could come “very soon, or not so soon at all,” as Russian leaders urged calm & reined in their own war rhetoric. He tweeted today that he “never said when an attack on Syria would take place.” The comment came roughly 24 hours after warning Russia to “get ready” for a missile attack on its ally to punish a presumed chemical attack near Damascus. Pres Putin appealed for common sense in a world growing “more chaotic.” Markets stabilized as investors speculated that Middle East tensions won't turn into an uncontrolled confrontation between the 2 Cold War antagonists. US stock futures rose & Treasuries slipped, while contracts for the S&P 500 pushed to session highs after Trump's tweet. Putin's spokesman said that the Russian & US militaries are maintaining contact via a telephone hotline. Russia is counting on cooler heads to prevail, said a senator who's a member of the upper house's defense & security committee. The threat of military response still hung in air, with French Pres Macron saying that there's proof that Syrian leader Al-Assad's regime used chemical weapons. The allies are working to decide what response would be “useful and efficient,” Macron added. UK Prime Minister Theresa May called an emergency Cabinet meeting yesterday to discuss the British response to the apparent use of chemical weapons in Douma, a town controlled by Syrian rebels. May said she had little doubt, despite Syrian & Russian protests to the contrary, that Assad's gov was to blame for what happened in Douma. “We will be working with our closest allies on how we can ensure that those who are responsible are held to account,” she said. “The continued use of chemical weapons cannot go unchallenged.” While German Chancellor Angela Merkel condemned the use of chemical weapons & cited “very strong evidence” that the Syrian regime has again deployed them, the country ruled out participating in any military action. At the same time, she made clear that Germany wouldn't stand in the way of a response by its allies. “It’s important to show unity, even if Germany will not take part militarily,” she said. “Despite that, a violation of the chemical weapons convention is a grave occurrence, for which a reaction will be appropriate.” Assad meanwhile made his first comments since images of civilian victims emerged last weekend, causing indignation around the world. The Syrian leader said after meeting a senior Iranian official that following every regime victory on the ground “the voices of some Western countries rise high in an attempt to change the course of events,” state-run media reported. “These voices and possible moves will only contribute to further destabilization of the region which will in turn threaten international peace and security,” Assad said. Pentagon chief Jim Mattis & other members of the national security team met Wed, after the pres warned Russia to expect a missile barrage toward its ally, Syria, saying “You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!” But the US administration hasn't decided how to retaliate against Assad
Trump Keeps Syria Attack Options Open While Russia Urges Calm
US filings for unemployment benefits eased last week following a spike reflecting volatility around spring holidays, Labor Dept data showed. Jobless claims decreased 9K to 233K (est 230K). Continuing claims rose 53K to 1.871M in the latest week. The 4-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, rose to 230K from the prior week's 228K. Claims are still near the 45-year low of 217K in Feb, indicating employers' reluctance to layoff staff. The prior week's increase of 24K, the biggest since Sep, may have reflected the impact of the Easter holiday & school breaks, periods when seasonal adjustments tend to be more difficult. Also, applications for jobless benefits below 300K are considered consistent with a healthy labor market. While hiring slowed in Mar, most data indicate the market remains in generally good shape, with an unemployment rate at the lowest since 2000. Unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 1.3% for a 6th week.
Sudden whims are driving market moves. Today, market breadth lags the optimism suggested by the advance in the stock averages. Trade relations with China remain a huge unknown. Earnings reports are coming & they represent a big unknown, especially regarding forecasts for future earnings. The Dow is struggling to find traction to resume its long term rally. The last time it saw 25K was almost 2 months ago.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 66.48 | -0.34 | -0.5% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,344.20 | -15.80 | -1.2% |
Stocks rose & Treasuries retreated as investors speculated that Middle East tensions won't erupt into a destabilizing conflict. Crude slid after climbing more than 7% this week. All major benchmarks were were higher following hints from Pres Trump that military action in Syria may not be imminent, while Russia toned down its war rhetoric. The calls for geopolitical calm helped equities ignore overnight trading rumblings from China, which dragged most Asian gauges lower. The € fell after a report that European industrial output unexpectedly declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Gov bonds of most euro-region countries rose after minutes of the latest ECB policy meeting struck a dovish tone. Investors seem wedged between competing catalysts. Yesterday, a key US inflation measure sped to the highest in a year, but traders were still rattled after Trump warned Russia in a tweet to “get ready” for missiles to be launched at Syria. Separately, a bipartisan effort emerged in Congress to protect special counsel Robert Mueller from being fired, a move that points to escalating political risk in the US. Meanwhile, Fed minutes showed officials leaned toward a slightly faster pace of policy tightening at their Mar meeting, even as they saw clear “downside risks” for the biggest economy from retaliatory trade duties. China will “unquestionably” retaliate if the US further escalates trade tension, a senior Chinese trade official said. Tension in the Middle East pushed down most of the stock benchmarks in the region, but it gave a break to oil-rich Russia, where recent crude gains helped the ruble bounce back from the lowest level since 2016.
U.S. Stocks Advance After Middle East War Talk Cools
Pres Trump said an attack on Syria could come “very soon, or not so soon at all,” as Russian leaders urged calm & reined in their own war rhetoric. He tweeted today that he “never said when an attack on Syria would take place.” The comment came roughly 24 hours after warning Russia to “get ready” for a missile attack on its ally to punish a presumed chemical attack near Damascus. Pres Putin appealed for common sense in a world growing “more chaotic.” Markets stabilized as investors speculated that Middle East tensions won't turn into an uncontrolled confrontation between the 2 Cold War antagonists. US stock futures rose & Treasuries slipped, while contracts for the S&P 500 pushed to session highs after Trump's tweet. Putin's spokesman said that the Russian & US militaries are maintaining contact via a telephone hotline. Russia is counting on cooler heads to prevail, said a senator who's a member of the upper house's defense & security committee. The threat of military response still hung in air, with French Pres Macron saying that there's proof that Syrian leader Al-Assad's regime used chemical weapons. The allies are working to decide what response would be “useful and efficient,” Macron added. UK Prime Minister Theresa May called an emergency Cabinet meeting yesterday to discuss the British response to the apparent use of chemical weapons in Douma, a town controlled by Syrian rebels. May said she had little doubt, despite Syrian & Russian protests to the contrary, that Assad's gov was to blame for what happened in Douma. “We will be working with our closest allies on how we can ensure that those who are responsible are held to account,” she said. “The continued use of chemical weapons cannot go unchallenged.” While German Chancellor Angela Merkel condemned the use of chemical weapons & cited “very strong evidence” that the Syrian regime has again deployed them, the country ruled out participating in any military action. At the same time, she made clear that Germany wouldn't stand in the way of a response by its allies. “It’s important to show unity, even if Germany will not take part militarily,” she said. “Despite that, a violation of the chemical weapons convention is a grave occurrence, for which a reaction will be appropriate.” Assad meanwhile made his first comments since images of civilian victims emerged last weekend, causing indignation around the world. The Syrian leader said after meeting a senior Iranian official that following every regime victory on the ground “the voices of some Western countries rise high in an attempt to change the course of events,” state-run media reported. “These voices and possible moves will only contribute to further destabilization of the region which will in turn threaten international peace and security,” Assad said. Pentagon chief Jim Mattis & other members of the national security team met Wed, after the pres warned Russia to expect a missile barrage toward its ally, Syria, saying “You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!” But the US administration hasn't decided how to retaliate against Assad
Trump Keeps Syria Attack Options Open While Russia Urges Calm
US filings for unemployment benefits eased last week following a spike reflecting volatility around spring holidays, Labor Dept data showed. Jobless claims decreased 9K to 233K (est 230K). Continuing claims rose 53K to 1.871M in the latest week. The 4-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, rose to 230K from the prior week's 228K. Claims are still near the 45-year low of 217K in Feb, indicating employers' reluctance to layoff staff. The prior week's increase of 24K, the biggest since Sep, may have reflected the impact of the Easter holiday & school breaks, periods when seasonal adjustments tend to be more difficult. Also, applications for jobless benefits below 300K are considered consistent with a healthy labor market. While hiring slowed in Mar, most data indicate the market remains in generally good shape, with an unemployment rate at the lowest since 2000. Unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 1.3% for a 6th week.
Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell Last Week
Sudden whims are driving market moves. Today, market breadth lags the optimism suggested by the advance in the stock averages. Trade relations with China remain a huge unknown. Earnings reports are coming & they represent a big unknown, especially regarding forecasts for future earnings. The Dow is struggling to find traction to resume its long term rally. The last time it saw 25K was almost 2 months ago.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment