Dow went up 86, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 36. The MLP index added 1 to the 254s & the REIT index rose 2+ to 381 (a new record). Junk bond funds hardly budged in price & Treasuries were sold after the recent rally. Oil shot up to 60 & gold rebounded 4 to 1299.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Pres Trump has a signature achievement within his grasp. All he needs to do is weave through a skeptical Congress, a task that has proven difficult for his White House in the past. The pres reached an agreement with Mexico & Canada last year to revise the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, which the pres has long slammed as a "disaster" that saps American jobs. Reps & the US neighbors want Congress to ratify the deal by this summer. Getting the pact, which Trump has called the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), approved would give Trump another policy to tout as he hits the 2020 re-election campaign trail. After the conclusion of special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation, Trump set out to follow thru on reworking relationships with several countries that the pres has accused of trade abuses. The next few months are pivotal for the pres as he tries to ratify the North American pact & reach a new deal with China. But approval of the USMCA, which Dems have dubbed NAFTA 2.0 in part to signal that Trump made few changes, is not certain. Not only the majority House Democrats but also a key Senate Rep have expressed concerns about the deal.
Trump’s NAFTA facelift hits bipartisan roadblock in Congress
The Univ of Mich's consumer sentiment index improved to a reading of 98.4 in Mar from 93.8 in the prior month. That was better than the mid-Mar reading of 97.8. Current conditions & expectations indices both improved in the month. Sentiment was aided by more favorable real income expectations. Expectations of inflation were lower. Consumers still expect the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate this year. After slumping in Jan, due to the partial gov shutdown, sentiment has rebounded. “Overall, the data do not indicate an emerging recession but point toward slightly lower unit sales of vehicles and homes during the year ahead,” said Richard Curtin, the chief economist of the survey. The index is slightly above the average of 97.2 recorded over the past 26 months. The release of the summary of the Mueller report had no impact on the data, but said it could affect the Apr sentiment, Curtin said.
Stocks are in demand again as investors are praying for a favorable outcome in the China trade talks. The Dow is down only 100 in Mar, but that merely reflects its sideways trend which will need a major news story for either a big rise or decline. There is talk about Q2 being the best qtr in a decade (up 10% YTD). However that comparison is helped by the averages beginning the year at a depressed level.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 60.17 | +0.87 | +1.5% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,302.50 | +7.20 | +0.6% |
Stocks opened higher in the final day of Q1 trading, after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin tweeted an upbeat assessment of US China trade talks. Mnuchin
said on Twitter that he "concluded constructive trade
talks in Beijing. I look forward to welcoming China's Vice Premier Liu
He to continue these important discussions in Washington next week." US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer &
Mnuchin attended a working dinner with Liu yesterday, shortly
after their arrival in the Chinese capital. The
meetings seek to end the 2 countries' tariff conflict that is
disrupting trade in goods from soybeans to medical equipment. "Both teams are currently sparing no effort" on the negotiations, Chinese commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said yesterday. In Asia, major averages closed higher: Japan's
Nikkei 225 added 0.8%, the Hang Seng rose 1% & the
Shanghai Composite was up 3.2%. European
bourses also gained. London's FTSE 100 added 0.3%, France's CAC
40 climbed 0.8% & Germany's DAX rose 0.9%.
Stocks rise on US-China trade talk optimism
Americans' incomes barely budged last month, while the overall US economic growth shows signs of slowing. The Commerce Dept said personal incomes rose just 0.2% in Feb, primarily reflected in wages & salaries & an
increase in Social Security benefits at the start of the year. Gains
were offset by a decline in personal interest income, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, personal income declined in Jan by
0.1%, while disposable personal income fell 0.2%. These
losses were attributable to declines in personal div income, farm
proprietors' income & personal interest income. Personal
consumption expenditures rose 0.1%, the primary drivers were
spending on financial services & insurances. On the flip side, the
data reflected weak sales of new motor vehicles. The personal savings rate, as a percent of income, was 7.5%. The
report combines data from Jan & Feb due to the partial
gov shutdown, during which no statistics were released. Meanwhile,
consumer spending increased by just 0.1% in Jan, falling
short of expectations, while Dec's numbers were revised slightly
lower. Many
are anticipating softness in economic growth, after the Federal
Reserve announced this month it did not intend to raise interest rates
in 2019. During the central bank's Dec meeting, it had projected 2 hikes for the year. “There’s been some
evidence the economy is slowing,” Minneapolis Federal Reserve Pres
Neel Kashkari said today. “I’m not yet sure is this
just a blip or is this a real slowdown?”
US income growth off to slow start in 2019
Pres Trump has a signature achievement within his grasp. All he needs to do is weave through a skeptical Congress, a task that has proven difficult for his White House in the past. The pres reached an agreement with Mexico & Canada last year to revise the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, which the pres has long slammed as a "disaster" that saps American jobs. Reps & the US neighbors want Congress to ratify the deal by this summer. Getting the pact, which Trump has called the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), approved would give Trump another policy to tout as he hits the 2020 re-election campaign trail. After the conclusion of special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation, Trump set out to follow thru on reworking relationships with several countries that the pres has accused of trade abuses. The next few months are pivotal for the pres as he tries to ratify the North American pact & reach a new deal with China. But approval of the USMCA, which Dems have dubbed NAFTA 2.0 in part to signal that Trump made few changes, is not certain. Not only the majority House Democrats but also a key Senate Rep have expressed concerns about the deal.
Trump’s NAFTA facelift hits bipartisan roadblock in Congress
The Univ of Mich's consumer sentiment index improved to a reading of 98.4 in Mar from 93.8 in the prior month. That was better than the mid-Mar reading of 97.8. Current conditions & expectations indices both improved in the month. Sentiment was aided by more favorable real income expectations. Expectations of inflation were lower. Consumers still expect the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate this year. After slumping in Jan, due to the partial gov shutdown, sentiment has rebounded. “Overall, the data do not indicate an emerging recession but point toward slightly lower unit sales of vehicles and homes during the year ahead,” said Richard Curtin, the chief economist of the survey. The index is slightly above the average of 97.2 recorded over the past 26 months. The release of the summary of the Mueller report had no impact on the data, but said it could affect the Apr sentiment, Curtin said.
Consumer sentiment improves for second straight month in March
Stocks are in demand again as investors are praying for a favorable outcome in the China trade talks. The Dow is down only 100 in Mar, but that merely reflects its sideways trend which will need a major news story for either a big rise or decline. There is talk about Q2 being the best qtr in a decade (up 10% YTD). However that comparison is helped by the averages beginning the year at a depressed level.
Dow Jones Industrials
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