Thursday, March 21, 2019

Higher markets on improved leading economic for February

Dow rose 64, advancers over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ gained 45.  The MLP index was fractionally higher in the 257s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 371s.  Junk bond funds were slightly lower & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil slid under 60 & gold added 9 to 1310.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil60.12
   -0.11-0.2%

GC=FGold   1,313.50
+11.80+0.9%







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European leaders are meeting to decide whether to grant the UK an extension to its Brexit due on Mar 29.  UK Prime Minister Theresa May is in Brussels to seek support from the bloc's 27 leaders for an extension to Brexit date that would mean a departure takes place on Jun 30.  At her arrival in Belgium, May said that it is important is that UK parliament delivers on the result of the Jun 2016 referendum.  She also said she regretted having to ask for more time for her country to leave the EU.  The move comes after UK lawmakers rejected May's Brexit deal with the EU for a 2nd time earlier this month but also rejected the idea of leaving the bloc without a deal.  May requested the extension yesterday, saying she intended to try to put the Brexit deal before Parliament a 3rd time next week.  Whether she can do so or not is another matter, as House Speaker John Bercow said the deal would have to have changed significantly in order to justify putting it before MPs a 3rd time.  Meanwhile at the European Council summit today, EU leaders will have to agree unanimously to a delay.  If they don't, the UK could exit the bloc abruptly on Mar 29 with no deal – in other words, the infamous "cliff-edge" scenario where no agreements are in place related to Britain & the EU's future relationship.  "My assumption is that today we will vote 'yes', in principle (on the request for an extension," Mark Rutte, Dutch Prime Minister, said.  He also said that he hopes the fast approaching departure date will pressure UK lawmakers to approve the deal.  In the meantime, Ireland's Prime Minister described the situation in London as "somewhat chaotic."  Yesterday, European Council Pres Donald Tusk signaled a willingness to grant an extension, only if the UK Parliament backs May's deal (formally as the "withdrawal agreement').  He also said that "the question remains open as to the duration of such an extension."

EU leaders to decide whether to give UK Brexit extension

Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, says it is working on changes to the training & operation of its 737 Max plane that has suffered 2 major crashes within the space of 6 months.  The US plane maker is under huge pressure to satisfy regulators after the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 on Mar 10, which killed all 157 people on board.  Investigators have said there are "clear similarities" between that flight & a 737 Max crash in Indonesia in Oct that killed all 189 on board.  VP for commercial plane marketing, Randy Tinseth, said that he expected the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to certify updates to the jet's flight control software, on board displays, flight manual & training.  "We have gone through steps such as working with it in a simulator, we flight tested the improvements and we are working with the FAA towards certification and we believe that will happen in coming weeks," he said.  BA's chief salesman said data from the Ethiopian crash was still filtering through & it was still to draw full conclusions about the crash.  As investigations continue, the plane has been grounded by several jurisdictions around the world.  Crash investigators in both accidents are focusing on the plane's stall-prevention system, known as the manoeuvring characteristics augmentation system (MCAS).  It has been reported that the system may have forced the plane's nose down following erroneous data from just one sensor.  The stock fell 2.46.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Boeing confirms changes to the 737 Max's software and training

The leading economic index increased 0.2% in Feb, the Conference Board reported, the first uptick since Sep.  The improved reading in Feb was spurred by higher stock prices, lower interest rates & improved access to credit.  Gains in those areas offset weaker job creation & a somewhat higher, though still-low, level of layoffs.  6 of the 10 components that compose the leading index rose in Feb.  Even if the index is pointing to a slightly improved economy, however, it’s not signaling a big turnaround.  “Despite the latest results, the US LEI’s growth rate has slowed over the past six months, suggesting that while the economy will continue to expand in the near-term, its pace of growth could decelerate by year end,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at the board.  The economy has slowed in early 2019 after a bout of strong growth in the middle of last year, leading economists & the Federal Reserve to cut their forecasts.  The Fed, for example, trimmed its estimate for GDP this year to 2.1% from 2.3%.  The economy expanded at a 2.9% pace last year.  Despite slower growth, the economy is still on track to set the record for longest expansion ever by early summer.  A sharp drop in the cost of borrowing after the Federal Reserve abandoned plans to raise interest rates is likely to support the economy in the months ahead.

Economy expands for first time in five months, leading indicators show


Traders were relieved to see that the Fed did not raise interest rates yesterday & there are no plans for further increases this year.  The Brexit mess drones on with no solution in sight.  Then there is the US-China trade deal which seems to be far away.  But bulls are happy & will try to take the Dow back over 26K, about 170 away.

Dow Jones Industrials








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