Thursday, March 14, 2019

Markets struggle after housing data

Dow fell 26, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 12 following recent strength.  The MLP index crawled higher in the 251s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 373s.  Junk bond funds & Treasuries were slightly lower.  Oil went up in the 58s & gold sank 14 to 1295.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil58.70
+0.44+0.8%

GC=FGold   1,295.30
-14.00-1.1%







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Stocks were trading little changed as shares of Dow stock Boeing (BA) stabilized after Pres Trump ordered the 737 Max 8 & Max 9 grounded, joining a slew of other nations in banning the aircraft after a fatal crash on Sun.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 6K to a seasonally adjusted 229K.  US import prices increased by the most in 9 months in Feb.  In Asian markets, China's Shanghai Composite was down 1.2% as China's industrial output rose a slower-than-expected 5.3%.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng index ended 0.2% higher & Japan's Nikkei ended 1% lower.  In Europe,  London's FTSE gained 0.5%, Germany's DAX added 0.3% & France's CAC was higher by 0.7%.

Stocks little changed as Boeing shares stabilize

Sales of new US homes slumped 6.9% in Jan, a possible sign that buyers paused during the gov shutdown.  The Commerce Dept says that new homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607K in Jan, down from 652K in Dec.  The partial gov shutdown during Jan as well as a battered stock market appears to have hurt sales, even as lower mortgage rates eased affordability pressures & boosted buyer interest.  Purchases of homes yet to be constructed to plunged 26.8% in Jan, accounting for all of the month's decline.  Sales increased of homes that were already under construction.  New-home sales in Jan ran slightly below the totals for 2018 & 2017.  The median sales price of a new home in January fell 3.8% to $317K.

US new home sales declined 6.9 percent in January

OPEC continued to cut its crude-oil production in Feb but at a significantly reduced rate than the month prior & well-below the group's pledge to the market.  In its closely watched monthly oil-market report, OPEC said its crude output had fallen by 221K barrels a day in Feb from Jan, to average 30.55M barrels a day (citing secondary sources).  That compares with a decline of 797K barrels a day in Jan, the first month in which a fresh OPEC-led plan to limit production took effect.  Late last year, OPEC & a group of 10 producers outside the cartel, led by Russia, agreed to hold back output by a collective 1.2M barrels a day in H1, compared with Oct 2018 levels.  OPEC member states agreed to cut 800K barrels a day of that quota, with Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of crude, handling a 250K-barrel a day reduction.  But Saudi production in Feb came down by just 86K barrels a day, bringing output to 10.09M barrels a day, the report showed.  That compares with a decrease of 350K barrels a day the month prior.  The bulk of OPEC's cuts in Feb came from Venezuela, one of 3 member countries exempt from the cartel's latest production-cut agreement.  Venezuela, which is facing an economic & political crisis & is currently subject to US oil sanctions, saw production fall by 142K barrels a day last month, to average just over 1M barrels a day, OPEC said.

OPEC monthly report shows cartel has slowed pace of oil output cuts


The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, suggesting the labor market was slowing, but probably not to the extent implied by a near-stall in job growth in Feb.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 6K to a seasonally adjusted 229K for the latest week, the Labor Dept said.  The forecast called for claims rising to 225K in the latest week.  Claims have been hovering in the middle of their 200-253K range this year.  The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, slipped 2K to 223K last week.  The labor market is slowing as workers become more scarce.  Hiring is also being constrained by a weakening economy as stimulus from a $1.5T tax cut diminishes.  The trade war with Beijing, slowing demand overseas & uncertainty over Britain's exit from the EU are also hurting economic activity.  The gov reported last week that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 20K jobs in Feb, the weakest since Sep 2017, in part as payback after hefty gains in the prior 2 months.  But the unemployment rate dropped two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.8% & annual wage growth was the strongest since 2009.  The claims report showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 18K to 1.78M for the latest week.  The 4-week moving average of continuing claims slid back 1K to 1.77M.

Weekly jobless claims increase more than expected


Stocks were sold after the opening but now are climbing back towards breakeven.  There is not much new excitement for traders to latch on to.  The Dow still needs 1K+ to reach a new record high after a month osf sideways trading.

Dow Jones Industrials








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