Dow was down 23 (200 above the lows at the opening), decliners only modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ fell 13. The MLP index lost 1+ to the 247s & the REIT index was slightly lower to the 364s. Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries climbed a little higher. Oil slid lower to 56 & gold added 14 to about 1299 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Pres's aggressive tariffs have taken their toll on the Chinese economy, giving DC the edge in trade talks with Beijing, top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said. “We have them over a barrel,” said Kudlow, director of Trump's National Economic Council. “On the other hand, we would like a good deal. Both countries should benefit.” Kudlow pointed to overnight economic data from China, showing that dollar-denominated exports there plunged 20.7% last month from a year ago, missing expectations by a wide margin. “We have hurt them,” Kudlow said,” as both sides hope the finish line to resolving their trade war is near. “We are still negotiating by phone and teleconference.” “The documents from two weeks ago advanced enormously. That’s why the president is optimistic about the potential for a deal,” Kudlow added. But he stressed, “I don’t want to hang a timetable on this.” However, Kudlow signaled that Trump & Chinese leader Xi Jinping could meet regarding their trade dispute later this month or early next month at the Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. “Nothing in cement, but there’s a lot of talk.” As Kudlow was speaking, Trump told reporters at the White House that he remains confident a trade deal will be reached. But the pres added that the US will do well with or without an agreement. Kudlow emphasized Trump's message. “He’s very serious, if we don’t get a good deal for the United States ... then we won’t get a good deal. You saw him walk away from North Korea” nuclear talks in Vietnam last week. Trump & Xi agreed to Dec, at the G-20 summit in Argentina, to halt any new tariffs until Mar as negotiators continued talks. Last month, Trump extended that deadline, citing progress in trade talks. The US has imposed import levies on $250B in Chinese products, 25% on $50B worth & 10% on the rest. Trump has threatened to also raise the rate on the $200B to 25% if a deal were to be elusive. China has hit $110B in US goods with tariffs. Kudlow also said the shockingly low reading on job growth in the gov's Feb employment report was “very fluky” & added he wouldn't pay any attention to it.
We have them over a barrel' — Kudlow says tough US tariffs give Trump edge in China trade talks
Housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.23M in Jan, the Commerce Dept said. Seasonally adjusted housing permits were at an annualized 1.345M. Builders broke ground on more homes & applied for more permits to start construction in the future, a solid vote of confidence in economic growth & a surge of much-needed inventory for the supply-starved housing market. Starts were 19% higher than in Dec & 7.8% lower than year-ago levels. Permits were 1.4% higher than in Dec & 1.5% lower than last year. Even better, builders are making a bigger bet on single-family houses, rather than apartment buildings. Single-family starts ran at a 926K seasonally adjusted annual pace, one of the strongest monthly tallies of the recovery. The Jan starts figure beat the forecast of a 1.212M annual rate. For the past several years, US residential builders have produced far too few homes to keep up with population growth & household formation. Late last year, Freddie Mac estimated that cumulative shortfall totaled nearly 5M homes. There's reason to believe the pace of building (& buying) may perk up a bit, including some data out earlier this week from the Commerce Dept that showed more Americans had ordered spec homes toward the end of last year. But overall the pace of residential construction is likely to remain muted. There are unyielding constraints on builders, including a scarcity of labor amid an immigration crackdown, higher-cost materials made worse by tariffs & pricey land in the areas that produce the most jobs. As a reminder, gov data on new-home construction is based on small sample sizes & is prone to big revisions.
Haven gold climbed by 1% today to notch a slight gain for the week, boosted by losses in global stock markets on the heels of weak Chinese export & US jobs data. Apr gold added $13.20 (1%) to settle at $1299 an ounce after briefly trading as high as $1301. After a back-&-forth week, including the lowest settlement Tues since late Jan, prices for the most-active contract were up 10¢ from the week-ago finish. The weak Feb jobs report gives the Federal Reserve even more reason to be patient about interest rate adjustments & will keep the central bank on hold until at least its Sep meeting.
Oil futures settled lower as weaker-than-expected Chinese trade & US jobs data raised worries about energy demand. Prices, however, pared much of their earlier losses to finish higher for the week as a 3rd-weekly decline in US oil drilling rigs pointed to a potential fall in domestic production activity. Apr West Texas Intermediate oil fell 59¢ (1%) to settle at $56.07 a barrel & rose 0.5% for the week.
Baker Hughes reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by 9 to 834 this week. That followed a decline of 10 in the oil-rig count a week earlier. The total active US rig count also edged down by 11 to 1027.
China has removed a planned trip to Pres Trump's Mar-a-Lago, Florida, property planned for late Mar from Xi Jinping's calendar without attribution. The report said Xi may still come in Apr but China was concerned that if a trade deal wasn't completed, the US would walk away from the table altogether.
This was another dreary day for stocks which gave the stock market its first weekly loss in 2019. Profit taking was in order. While the jobs number was discouraging, monthly numbers can vary & be revised at a later date. China trade talks are more worrisome. They involve huge numbers & those talks are clearly stuck in the mud. The Dow has fallen back to where it was in mid Feb.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Pres's aggressive tariffs have taken their toll on the Chinese economy, giving DC the edge in trade talks with Beijing, top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said. “We have them over a barrel,” said Kudlow, director of Trump's National Economic Council. “On the other hand, we would like a good deal. Both countries should benefit.” Kudlow pointed to overnight economic data from China, showing that dollar-denominated exports there plunged 20.7% last month from a year ago, missing expectations by a wide margin. “We have hurt them,” Kudlow said,” as both sides hope the finish line to resolving their trade war is near. “We are still negotiating by phone and teleconference.” “The documents from two weeks ago advanced enormously. That’s why the president is optimistic about the potential for a deal,” Kudlow added. But he stressed, “I don’t want to hang a timetable on this.” However, Kudlow signaled that Trump & Chinese leader Xi Jinping could meet regarding their trade dispute later this month or early next month at the Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. “Nothing in cement, but there’s a lot of talk.” As Kudlow was speaking, Trump told reporters at the White House that he remains confident a trade deal will be reached. But the pres added that the US will do well with or without an agreement. Kudlow emphasized Trump's message. “He’s very serious, if we don’t get a good deal for the United States ... then we won’t get a good deal. You saw him walk away from North Korea” nuclear talks in Vietnam last week. Trump & Xi agreed to Dec, at the G-20 summit in Argentina, to halt any new tariffs until Mar as negotiators continued talks. Last month, Trump extended that deadline, citing progress in trade talks. The US has imposed import levies on $250B in Chinese products, 25% on $50B worth & 10% on the rest. Trump has threatened to also raise the rate on the $200B to 25% if a deal were to be elusive. China has hit $110B in US goods with tariffs. Kudlow also said the shockingly low reading on job growth in the gov's Feb employment report was “very fluky” & added he wouldn't pay any attention to it.
We have them over a barrel' — Kudlow says tough US tariffs give Trump edge in China trade talks
Housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.23M in Jan, the Commerce Dept said. Seasonally adjusted housing permits were at an annualized 1.345M. Builders broke ground on more homes & applied for more permits to start construction in the future, a solid vote of confidence in economic growth & a surge of much-needed inventory for the supply-starved housing market. Starts were 19% higher than in Dec & 7.8% lower than year-ago levels. Permits were 1.4% higher than in Dec & 1.5% lower than last year. Even better, builders are making a bigger bet on single-family houses, rather than apartment buildings. Single-family starts ran at a 926K seasonally adjusted annual pace, one of the strongest monthly tallies of the recovery. The Jan starts figure beat the forecast of a 1.212M annual rate. For the past several years, US residential builders have produced far too few homes to keep up with population growth & household formation. Late last year, Freddie Mac estimated that cumulative shortfall totaled nearly 5M homes. There's reason to believe the pace of building (& buying) may perk up a bit, including some data out earlier this week from the Commerce Dept that showed more Americans had ordered spec homes toward the end of last year. But overall the pace of residential construction is likely to remain muted. There are unyielding constraints on builders, including a scarcity of labor amid an immigration crackdown, higher-cost materials made worse by tariffs & pricey land in the areas that produce the most jobs. As a reminder, gov data on new-home construction is based on small sample sizes & is prone to big revisions.
Housing starts rebound in January as builders bet big on houses rather than apartments
Haven gold climbed by 1% today to notch a slight gain for the week, boosted by losses in global stock markets on the heels of weak Chinese export & US jobs data. Apr gold added $13.20 (1%) to settle at $1299 an ounce after briefly trading as high as $1301. After a back-&-forth week, including the lowest settlement Tues since late Jan, prices for the most-active contract were up 10¢ from the week-ago finish. The weak Feb jobs report gives the Federal Reserve even more reason to be patient about interest rate adjustments & will keep the central bank on hold until at least its Sep meeting.
Gold gains 1% on Chinese market fears, weak U.S. jobs data
Oil futures settled lower as weaker-than-expected Chinese trade & US jobs data raised worries about energy demand. Prices, however, pared much of their earlier losses to finish higher for the week as a 3rd-weekly decline in US oil drilling rigs pointed to a potential fall in domestic production activity. Apr West Texas Intermediate oil fell 59¢ (1%) to settle at $56.07 a barrel & rose 0.5% for the week.
Baker Hughes reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by 9 to 834 this week. That followed a decline of 10 in the oil-rig count a week earlier. The total active US rig count also edged down by 11 to 1027.
Baker Hughes data show a third straight weekly decline in the U.S. oil-rig count
China has removed a planned trip to Pres Trump's Mar-a-Lago, Florida, property planned for late Mar from Xi Jinping's calendar without attribution. The report said Xi may still come in Apr but China was concerned that if a trade deal wasn't completed, the US would walk away from the table altogether.
China has removed a planned March trip to Mar-a-Lago from Xi's calendar: report
This was another dreary day for stocks which gave the stock market its first weekly loss in 2019. Profit taking was in order. While the jobs number was discouraging, monthly numbers can vary & be revised at a later date. China trade talks are more worrisome. They involve huge numbers & those talks are clearly stuck in the mud. The Dow has fallen back to where it was in mid Feb.
Dow Jones Industrials
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