Dow was off 26, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ added 52. The MLP index fell to 250 & the REIT index fluctuated in the 374s. Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries went up in price. Oil slid lower in the 58s & gold rose 9 to 1304.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
US stocks on course to close out week higher
The preliminary Univ of Mich consumer sentiment index for Mar moved higher for the 2nd straight month, with the index rising to 97.8 from 93.8 in the prior month. In Jan, the index stood at 91.2, which was the worst reading since Nov 2016. The forecast called for a 95 reading. The gain in early Mar was due to households with incomes in the bottom 2/3 of the distribution, said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist. These householders felt better about their personal finances than more wealthy households. Wage growth has been more pronounced in lower-income households, according to other reports. All income groups voiced more positive prospects for growth in the overall economy. Year-ahead inflation rates moved lower. The current level of sentiment “hardly indicates an emerging downturn,” Curtin said. Concerns about the economy's health have been rising as GDP has lost a lot of momentum in Q1. The Atlanta Fed's tracking estimate has dropped steadily & now shows a gain of only 0.4% in the Jan-Mar qtr. Economists are divided about the outlook for the remainder of the year. The sentiment data is upbeat, indicating real consumption will grow by 2.6% in 2019, Curtin said.
Job openings reached 7.58M in Jan, the Labor Dept reported in a sign that companies are still eager to add new employees even with a tight labor market. Job openings rose to the 3rd-highest level on record from a revised 7.48M in Dec, with big increases in wholesale trade, real estate & information industries. The 7.58M job openings compares to the 6.54M people in Jan who were unemployed, taking the ratio of open positions to those who seek them down slightly to 1.16 from 1.19 in Dec. The quits rate stayed at 2.3%, which is close to the 2.4% high this cycle. Worker willingness to quit is taken a positive sign by economists, as it usually means they see better opportunities for higher pay and advancement elsewhere. The labor market is still in good health, even with a few other indicators that perhaps it’s moving in the other direction. Jobless claims rose & nonfarm payrolls growth slowed markedly in Feb.
Stocks continue to fluctuate, extending their longer term sideways trading pattern. Economic data is coming in so-so, maybe a little better. But very big macro issues such as US-China trade deal & Brexit are keeping potential buyers from making significant investments. The Dow has been having a tough time breaking thru the 26K ceiling.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 58.16 | -0.45 | -0.8% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,303.50 | +8.40 | +0.6% |
Stocks were mixed as the UK Parliament's decision to delay a potentially chaotic Brexit & encouraging news on US-China trade talks raised investor sentiment. In addition, worries about Boeing's 737 Max (BA), a Dow stock, grounding appeared to ease. The Univ of Michreported that its consumer sentiment survey bounced in Mar to 97.8 from 93.8. Shares
of BA slipped as the company announced yesterday that it was
suspending deliveries of its 737 Max jets, 2 of which have experienced
deadly crashes in the last 5 months. Crude oil prices declined as investors mulled large US inventories of the commodity. Major averages ended yesterday's session close to
their starting points after being buoyed by financial & technology
company shares but weighed by weakening industrial company & health
care company shares. Investors
also digested downbeat economic news from China, which reported
industrial activity & home sales declining in Jan & Feb.
Also, joblessness last month edged up to 5.3%.
US stocks on course to close out week higher
It may be wishful thinking, but Pres Trump & his economic team believe a significant trade deal with China could boost the stock market,
as measured by the Dow, possibly as much as
2K in the near term depending on just how many concessions
US negotiators can wring out of their Chinese counterparts. A deal could come in the
next 3 or 4 weeks, according to statements Trump made yesterday. It's unclear where this wave of optimism in the White House is coming from. In recent days, US negotiators, led by trade
representative Robert Lighthizer & Chinese officials continue to
debate a deal with little tangible progress other than the pres's
own assessment of the talks. In fact, the US trade deficit grew to a
record $891B last year as reported by the Commerce Dept. Despite the rally that began when Trump won the
White House, stocks have seen more volatility as the pres began to
issue tariffs on foreign goods, & countries retaliated with their own,
foreshadowing slower economic growth.
The 2 countries have been negotiating on & off for nearly 2 years
with Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping meeting together
twice as the US has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, & China has
imposed tariffs of its own. Trump has made
correcting the trade imbalance between the US & the world one of his
signature policy issues. He has long railed against what he believes
are unfair trade practices coming particularly from China, including its theft of intellectual property from US companies doing business there. Investors & traders believe the stock market has already priced in what many believe will be the most likely outcome of the ongoing China-US
negotiations: A modest deal that maintains the status quo of the past
few years & fails to address key issues like intellectual property &
removal of most tariffs. A grand trade deal
with China, however, could be a positive surprise to investors as US
companies gain greater access to the vast & growing Chinese economy & a debilitating trade war is averted.
White House believes big US-China trade deal could rocket Dow 2,000 points; Investors say devil is in the details
The preliminary Univ of Mich consumer sentiment index for Mar moved higher for the 2nd straight month, with the index rising to 97.8 from 93.8 in the prior month. In Jan, the index stood at 91.2, which was the worst reading since Nov 2016. The forecast called for a 95 reading. The gain in early Mar was due to households with incomes in the bottom 2/3 of the distribution, said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist. These householders felt better about their personal finances than more wealthy households. Wage growth has been more pronounced in lower-income households, according to other reports. All income groups voiced more positive prospects for growth in the overall economy. Year-ahead inflation rates moved lower. The current level of sentiment “hardly indicates an emerging downturn,” Curtin said. Concerns about the economy's health have been rising as GDP has lost a lot of momentum in Q1. The Atlanta Fed's tracking estimate has dropped steadily & now shows a gain of only 0.4% in the Jan-Mar qtr. Economists are divided about the outlook for the remainder of the year. The sentiment data is upbeat, indicating real consumption will grow by 2.6% in 2019, Curtin said.
Consumer sentiment index moves higher in March, as recovery from shutdown continues
Job openings reached 7.58M in Jan, the Labor Dept reported in a sign that companies are still eager to add new employees even with a tight labor market. Job openings rose to the 3rd-highest level on record from a revised 7.48M in Dec, with big increases in wholesale trade, real estate & information industries. The 7.58M job openings compares to the 6.54M people in Jan who were unemployed, taking the ratio of open positions to those who seek them down slightly to 1.16 from 1.19 in Dec. The quits rate stayed at 2.3%, which is close to the 2.4% high this cycle. Worker willingness to quit is taken a positive sign by economists, as it usually means they see better opportunities for higher pay and advancement elsewhere. The labor market is still in good health, even with a few other indicators that perhaps it’s moving in the other direction. Jobless claims rose & nonfarm payrolls growth slowed markedly in Feb.
Job openings climb in January to 7.58 million
Stocks continue to fluctuate, extending their longer term sideways trading pattern. Economic data is coming in so-so, maybe a little better. But very big macro issues such as US-China trade deal & Brexit are keeping potential buyers from making significant investments. The Dow has been having a tough time breaking thru the 26K ceiling.
Dow Jones Industrials
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