Monday, March 25, 2019

Markets struggle as slowing growth weighs on investor sentiment

Dow crawled 14 higher, advancers slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ slid back chump change.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 253s & the REIT index dropped 2+ to the 375s.  Junk bond funds remained under selling pressure & Treasuries continued in demand by investors.  Oil was off pennies to the high 58s & gold shot up 9 to 1321, highest in a month

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



Pres Trump will throw himself fully into his battle to overhaul US trade deals this week with special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation — mostly — behind him.  The pres won the White House in large part by pledging to crack down on foreign trade abuses & rework intl agreements to boost US manufacturing and protect American workers.  The conclusion of Mueller's probe, & the Justice Dept's decision not to charge the pres with obstruction of justice, comes at a pivotal time in Trump's push to follow thru on a campaign priority ahead of his 2020 re-election bid.  Trump will try to rework US trade relationships on more than one front in the coming weeks & months.  He not only aims to strike a new deal with China, but also wants Congress to ratify a revised North American trade deal.  A flurry of activity on the trade front starts this week:
  • Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland is set to meet with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & undisclosed members of Congress in DC today.  She led her country in talks to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement, which the US, Canada & Mexico agreed to do last year.  They hope their legislatures will ratify the deal — dubbed by Trump the US Mexico Canada Agreement — in the coming months.
  • Trump is set to meet with lawmakers tomorrow about trade issues.
  • The House Ways & Means Committee’s trade subcommittee will hold a hearing tomorrow titled, “Trade and Labor: Creating and Enforcing Rules to Benefit American Workers.” Concerns about protections for workers have led to some resistance to the USMCA deal within the Dem-held House.
  • Lighthizer & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin head to Beijing on Thurs to continue talks toward a trade deal with China.  Trump has touted progress toward an agreement with the world's 2nd largest economy, which could end a potentially devastating trade conflict.  The sides still need to hash out some of the finer points of a deal, such as how much China will increase its buying of US goods, how the US will stop Chinese intellectual property theft & how quickly the Trump administration will lift tariffs on $250B in Chinese goods.
  • A Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He will then come to DC for more discussions starting Apr 3.  Trump is also deciding whether to impose tariffs on European cars.  The Commerce Dept sent a confidential report to the pres last month that was expected to recommend duties on national security grounds.  Some Senate Reps who opposed previous tariffs levied using a national security justification have started to line up against the potential auto tariffs.
Trump has railed against China, Mexico & Canada’s trade practices for years & sees the criticism as a central part of his political appeal.  He now stands closer than ever to reworking trade relationships with all three countries as he looks for signature policy achievements to promote on the 2020 campaign trail.  Some trade policy observers believe the end of Mueller's probe — & Barr's letter saying the special counsel concluded that the Trump campaign did not collude with Russian efforts to influence the 2016 election & put Trump in a stronger position in talks with China.  Of course, the pres will still face some legal questions moving forward: 

Trump turns to trade fights with Congress, China and Europe now that the Mueller probe is done

Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, unveiled its long-awaited video streaming service, featuring original programming & offering an ability to purchase channels like HBO & Showtime from within AAPL's platform.  The original TV offering, as well as the new Apple TV+ service, will play nicely with other offerings in the media landscape.  Users will be able to watch Apple TV's bundled content on streaming devices & also on various smart TVs.  The company brought on stars from many of its forthcoming shows to preview the programming.  Apple TV+ will arrive in the fall in 100 countries, & content will be available for download.  The stock fell 2.31.
If you would like to learn moire about AAPL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AAPL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Apple announces new streaming service featuring original content


The end of the Mueller investigation should give Trump more time to work on economic matters, such as trade reform.  But that is getting less attention than worries about the health of the global economy.  Data is coming in weak & expectations for Mar readings are not encouraging.  The Dow did not stray far from breakeven today as it remains around 25.5K, where it was on its way up in mid Feb (off the Dec lows).

Dow Jones Industrials


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