Thursday, March 21, 2019

Markets rise as tech stocks rally

Dow jumped up 216 (closing near the highs), advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ soared 109.  The MLP index gained 2+ to the 259s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 371s.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were a tad lower.  Oil continued lower, in the high 59s, & gold added 6 to 1307 (more below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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US officials seeking a China trade deal are focused on long-term changes to that nation's economy.  But Pres Trump is set on reducing the trade deficit & is pushing his negotiators to get China to agree to purchase more goods, according to leakers.  China has offered to purchase up to $1.2T in US energy, agriculture & aircraft products over a period of 6 years.  When the offer was first reported, 6 weeks after it was discussed by Trump Pres Xi Jinping at the G20 in Buenos Aires, the market jumped, a signal that investors viewed the offer as a substantial bargaining chip to win over the pres.  But Trump has long wanted a number “double or triple” China’s $1.2T  proposal.  He renewed his desire for a larger purchase deal in recent weeks, following data that revealed the US-China trade gap was widening.  In 2018, the US posted a record $891B trade deficit with China, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  The deficit of US goods, the metric of most importance to Trump & his China hawks, reached a record $419B.  The data showed a sharp decrease in China's import of US goods in Q4 as trade tensions escalated.  Closing the trade deficit was a pillar of Trump's 2016 campaign & a promise he wants to keep before he enters re-election season.  The worry is that a ballooning trade deficit would dwarf even a T-$ investment that's spread over a number of years.  But assembling an exponentially larger proposal would face challenges.

Trump wants China to ‘double or triple’ its offer to buy US goods in trad…

The number of laid-off workers who applied for unemployment benefits declined in mid-Mar to a one-month low, suggesting little deterioration in a robust labor market that's powered the economy over the past several years.  Initial jobless claims, a rough measure of layoffs, fell 9K to 221K last week, the gov said.  The forecast called for claims to total 225K.  The more stable monthly average of claims rose by 1K to 225K.  The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, fell by 27K to 1.7M.  Jobless claims sank below the key threshold of 300K in 2015 & have stayed low ever since, but they are no longer falling.  The 4-week average, for example, bottomed out at a 49-year low of 206K last Sep.  It's drifted up over the past several months to as high as 236K in mid-Feb before settling back down.  Claims are viewed as a sort of modern canary in the coal mine.  They tend to give the earliest clues of whether the economy is getting better or worse.  The labor market is still extremely strong even though the economy has slowed.  The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8% last month, layoffs are ultra-low & job opening remain near a record high.  So long as most Americans are working, earning paychecks & spending the economy should be OK.

U.S. jobless claims fall 9,000 to 221,000 as layoffs show no sign of rising


The EU proposed a conditional extension of the Brexit deadline until May 22, when elections for the European Parliament begin, in draft conclusions of a European Council meeting today, according to reports.  However, the extension would be tied to the UK Parliament supporting Prime Minister Theresa May's withdrawal deal.  The deal, or an amended version thereof, is expected to be put to vote next week.  The EC said an extension beyond May 22 was impossible due to the EU elections, which the UK isn't intending to take part in.  May had requested an extension until Jun 30.  At present, the UK is set to leave the EU on Mar 29 without a trade deal in place.  The £ dropped to a session-low of $1.2981 shortly before the extension proposal became known, the lowest level in about 2-weeks.  Sterling last bought $1.3046, down 1.1% from yesterday.  The € meanwhile, bought £0.87, up 0.6%.

EU proposes conditional Brexheit deadline extension to May 22


Shares of Apple (AAPL) jumped, enough to lift the technology giant back into first place on the list of most valuable US companies, after an analyst upgraded the company ahead of next week’s “Apple Special Event.”  AAPL stock surged toward a 4-month high, pacing the Dow gainers.  The rally lifted AAPL's capitalization to $916B from $887B yesterday.  Meanwhile, 2nd-place Microsoft (MSFT), another Dow stock, shares edged higher to lift the software giant's market cap to $908B from $902B.  AAPL finished the day up 6.93 to 195.
If you would like to learn more about AAPL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AAPL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Apple stock boosted by ‘strong buy’ call ahead of special press event


Gold futures settled at a one-week high, buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy statement, though strength in the $ kept prices in check.  Yesterday, after gold futures settled, the central bank left interest rates unchanged as expected & signaled no further increase in interest rates this year & just one in 2020, according to its new ‘dot plot,’& the bank said it would end its balance-sheet runoff by Sep.  The $ declined shortly after the news, but has recovered its post-Fed loss & moved sharply higher in dealings today.  The precious metals that are priced in the US unit continued to rise, but finished off session highs.  Gold for Apr delivery rose $5.60 (0.4%) to settle at $1307 an ounce, after trading as high as $1320.  The settlement was the highest since Mar 13 for a most-active contract.  The $ was up 0.8%.  A stronger $ can dull investment interest in $-denominated prices of gold from investors using other currencies & vice versa.

Gold settles at a one-week high on dovish Fed


The Dow finished closing in on 26K & the bulls are looking to to take it higher.  The NAZ was also up more than 1%.  But a good chunk of today's advance was powered by a recommendation to buy AAPL stock.  That enthusiasm could fade quickly.  Meanwhile mundane stories (US-China trade & Brexit) are floundering while the US economy has been less than robust in Q1.  For what it's worth, there was a little profit taking into the close.

Dow Jones Industrials

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