Dow jumped up 123, advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ gained 23. The MLP index added 2+ to the 257s & the REIT index pulled back 2 to 371 on profit taking. Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were sold today. Oil was even in the 59s & gold rose 6 to 1306.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund
Stocks rise ahead of Fed meeting
US economic growth is likely to slow sharply this year & next, according to respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey for Mar. Weaker global growth & tariffs are seen as the major culprits. The average forecast for GDP growth this year is just 2.3%, down from 2.44% expected in the Jan survey & a further slowing from the actual 3.1% year-over-year pace for Q4-2018. Economic growth is seen stepping below 2% in 2020. The outlook for slower growth has prompted the 43 survey respondents to lower their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year & next, barely forecasting one hike & some even seeing rate cuts on the horizon. Asked about the biggest threats to the US expansion, slowing global growth & protectionist trade policies ranked #1 & #2, respectively. A weak outlook for growth abroad knocked about 40 basis points (or 0.4 percentage points) off of GDP forecasts this year. Tariffs, both those put in place by the Trump administration & retaliatory tariffs from other countries, are estimated to take another 20 basis points off of growth. The good news is that most respondents expect a US-China trade deal this year. While 79% expect a deal, just 2% see a new round of tariffs & 17% expect a continuance. That suggests, however, that a deal could be baked into the stock market. The concerns about trade policy come from a group where 51% approve of Pres Trump's handling of the economy & 32% disapprove.
US economic growth is likely to slow sharply this year and next, according to CNBC’s Fed survey
US factory orders rise less than expected in January
While stocks are being bid higher, there is not much conviction in this rise. Market breadth is weak, traders are waiting for tomorrow's statement by the Fed (although little new information is expected). Traders are hoping to take the Dow up for its 5th straight daily advance. Already it's above 26K.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 59.26 | +0.17 | +0.3% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,309.80 | +8.30 | +0.6% |
Stocks are trading higher as the Federal Reserve begins its 2-day policy setting meeting. A move on interest rates seems unlikely. Investors will still be watching for the Fed's economic forecast as well
as the policy statement at the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow. In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng
added 0.2% & Japan's Nikkei slid lower. In European trading, London's FTSE rose 0.6%, Germany's DAX added 1.3% & France's CAC gained 0.5%.
Stocks rise ahead of Fed meeting
US economic growth is likely to slow sharply this year & next, according to respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey for Mar. Weaker global growth & tariffs are seen as the major culprits. The average forecast for GDP growth this year is just 2.3%, down from 2.44% expected in the Jan survey & a further slowing from the actual 3.1% year-over-year pace for Q4-2018. Economic growth is seen stepping below 2% in 2020. The outlook for slower growth has prompted the 43 survey respondents to lower their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year & next, barely forecasting one hike & some even seeing rate cuts on the horizon. Asked about the biggest threats to the US expansion, slowing global growth & protectionist trade policies ranked #1 & #2, respectively. A weak outlook for growth abroad knocked about 40 basis points (or 0.4 percentage points) off of GDP forecasts this year. Tariffs, both those put in place by the Trump administration & retaliatory tariffs from other countries, are estimated to take another 20 basis points off of growth. The good news is that most respondents expect a US-China trade deal this year. While 79% expect a deal, just 2% see a new round of tariffs & 17% expect a continuance. That suggests, however, that a deal could be baked into the stock market. The concerns about trade policy come from a group where 51% approve of Pres Trump's handling of the economy & 32% disapprove.
US economic growth is likely to slow sharply this year and next, according to CNBC’s Fed survey
New orders for US-made goods rose less than
expected in Jan, held back by decreases in orders for computers &
electronic products, in another indication of slowing manufacturing
activity. Factory goods orders edged up 0.1%, the Commerce
Dept said, as demand for primary metals & fabricated
metal products fell. That followed an unrevised 0.1% gain in
Dec. The forecast called for factory orders rising 0.3% higher in
Jan. Factory orders increased 3.8% compared to Jan 2018. Reports
last Fri showed manufacturing output fell for 2nd straight
month in Feb & factory activity in NY state hit nearly a 2-year low this month. Manufacturing, which accounts for about
12% of the economy, is losing momentum as the stimulus from last
year’s $1.5T tax cut package fades. Activity is also being
crimped by a trade war between the US & China as well as by
last year's surge in the $ & softening global economic growth,
which are hurting exports. In Jan, orders for machinery rose
1.5% after falling 0.4% in Dec. Orders for mining,
oil field & gas field machinery fell 2.7% after tumbling 8.2% in Dec. Orders
for electrical equipment, appliances & components rebounded 1.4% after dropping 0.3% in Dec. Computers & electronic
products orders fell 0.9% after decreasing 0.4% in
Dec. Orders for primary metals declined 2.0% &
fabricated metal products orders fell 0.6%. Transportation
equipment orders increased 1.2% in Jan, slowing from the
prior month’s 3.2% rise. Orders for civilian aircraft & parts increased 15.6. Motor vehicles & parts orders gained 0.4%. Jan orders for non-defense capital
goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business
spending plans on equipment, rose 0.8% as reported last week.
Orders for these core capital goods dropped 0.8% in
Dec. Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to
calculate business equipment spending in the GDP
report, also increased 0.8% in Jan as previously reported after core capital goods shipments edged up 0.1% in Dec.
US factory orders rise less than expected in January
Ford (F) announced it will be overhauling its SUV's production & adding jobs to the assembly line. The move is aimed at speeding up assembly lines in order to meet the demand for the Ford Expedition. Ford is planning to shift 550 workers from the
Louisville Assembly Plant, where the automaker is building the Ford
Escape, to the Kentucky Truck Plant in Louisville. There
are already 8K UAW workers at Kentucky Truck building the
Expedition, Lincoln Navigator & F-Series Super Duty trucks. The company's goal is to go after the
buyer who looks at full-size sport utility vehicles, such as the Chevy
Tahoe, Chevy Suburban & GMC Yukon. Retail sales of the Expedition rose 35% from 2017 to 2018 Workers have been told changes to the factory will begin in Jul. The stock went up 28¢.
If you would like to learn more about Ford, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7Ford to increase large SUV production, add 550 jobs to assembly line
While stocks are being bid higher, there is not much conviction in this rise. Market breadth is weak, traders are waiting for tomorrow's statement by the Fed (although little new information is expected). Traders are hoping to take the Dow up for its 5th straight daily advance. Already it's above 26K.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment