Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Markets climb after no-deal Brexit is rejected by UK Parliament

Dow shot up 148, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 in choppy trading & NAZ went up 52.  The MLP index was even in the 251s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 372s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were a tad lower.  Oil rose above 58 & gold jumped up 13 to 1311 (more on both below).

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Pres Trump ordered a ground stop of all Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, 737 Max jets in the US, joining a slew of other nations in banning the aircraft after a 2nd fatal crash on Sun involving an update to the manufacturer's most popular plane.  "We are going to be issuing an emergency order of prohibition to ground all flights of the 737 MAX 8 and the 737 MAX 9 and planes associated with that line," Trump said.  The Federal Aviation Administration has been under pressure to halt operations of the jet after countries including China, Ireland, the UK & all of Europe either suspended use of the aircraft or banned the planes from their airspace.  In the US, only American Airlines (AAL) & Southwest Airlines (LUV) operate the Max jets.  "Our teams will be working to rebook customers as quickly as possible, and we apologize for any inconvenience," AAL said.  A 737 Max aircraft operated by Ethiopian Airlines crashed on Sun, killing 157 on board.  The US & Ethiopian authorities continue to investigate the cause of the fatal incident.  A 737 Max 8 operated by Lion Air also crashed last year, resulting in the deaths of all 189 people on board 5 months ago.  BA stock after being up 5 early in the trading session finished up 1+.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Trump says US to order ground stop of Boeing Max jets


UK lawmakers have rejected the idea of leaving the EU without a Brexit deal in place, setting up another vote tomorrow on whether its official departure date should be extended.  A no-deal exit was widely expected to be defeated as most MPs want to avoid the economic uncertainty & trade disruptions that it could cause.  Infamously known as a “cliff-edge” Brexit, a no-deal exit would mean the UK abruptly ceases to be a member of the EU overnight on Mar 29.  It would mean there would be no 21-month transition period in place to gently prepare for life outside the bloc it has belonged to for 46 years.  It would also have to rely on WTO trading rules.  The vote was seen as part of some concessions given to Parliament by Prime Minister Theresa May a few weeks ago & was only confirmed yesterday when MPs resoundingly rejected her Brexit withdrawal agreement for a 2nd time.  Some lawmakers believe it's unwise to take a no-deal scenario out of the equation as it could give the EU the upper hand in negotiations.  Some also see it as the purest form of Brexit & rejected today's parliamentary motion.  While lawmakers have now indicated they don't want a no-deal Brexit, it's not guaranteed.  With 16 days left until the official Brexit date, an agreement or an extension hasn't been ratified & May said after her loss yesterday that a “no deal” still remains the default.  MPs will now vote again tomorrow on whether to seek an extension to Article 50 (which oversees the departure process) thus extending the departure date beyond Mar 29.  The EU would have to agree to this & the UK would have to give a good reason for requesting the delay.  Officials in Brussels are showing increasing signs of exasperation with the UK over its chaotic & confusing position on Brexit, warning that it will not renegotiate the deal on offer.  Its chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said ahead of today's vote that only the UK can break the impasse.  The UK gov has struggled throughout the 2-year departure process to find a consensus among MPs —  among them ardent Brexiteers & staunch Remainers, often within the same party — over what kind of Brexit the country should seek & how close the UK's future relationship should be with the EU.  May warned MPs earlier today that they faced “hard choices” after they rejected her deal yesterday.

UK lawmakers vote to reject a no-deal Brexit

Oil futures rallied to settle at their highest level since Nov as weekly data revealed a surprise decline in US crude stockpiles & a bigger-than-expected drop in gasoline inventories.  Apr West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.39 (2.4%) to end at $58.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, near the session's high of $58.44.  Prices front-month contract haven't traded or settled at levels this high since mid-Nov.  May Brent crude gained 88¢ 1.3%) to $67.55 a barrel, the highest finish for the intl benchmark in about 4 months.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies fell by 3.9M barrels for the week ended Mar 8.  That ran counter to expectations for a climb of 3.3M barrels expected.  The American Petroleum Institute yesterday had reported a 2.6M barrel decline. The EIA also reported that total domestic crude production inched down from record territory, down 100K barrels to 12M barrels a day.

Oil prices settle at a 4-month high as U.S. crude and gasoline supplies drop


Gold futures scored a 2nd straight gain, with a climb above $1300 an ounce sending prices to their highest settlement month to date.  Fears of a disorderly exit by the UK from the EU before the Mar 29 deadline to formally leave Europe's trade bloc has helped to drive appetite in haven assets like gold.  Gold for Apr delivery rose $11.20 (0.9%) to settle at $1309 an ounce, with bullion notching a 2nd straight advance—the longest since mid-Feb.  Prices for the most-active contract marked the highest settlement since Feb 28.  Gold-backed exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) also climbed 0.6%.


Even though this was a tough day for the stock market, the bulls had their way & bid up prices.  BA, one of the best performing Dow stocks in the last decade, has seen heavy selling after the 2nd crash of its popular 737 model plane.  It has a huge backlog for its aircraft & its fans are being tested this weak.  Bulls were buying in late day trading today, but it's still down 45 this week.  The Dow is up about 50 this week & would have a bigger advance this week excluding BA.  The Brexit mess is just one more mess the bulls have to deal with.

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