Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Higher markets head for records on earnings

Dow shot up 81, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ gained 60.  The MLP index dropped 2 to the 219s & the REIT index crawled higher in the 418s (in record territory).  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries edged higher.  Oil was off 1+ to 57 & gold fell 2 to 1555.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil57.16
-1.22-2.1%

GC=FGold   1,557.90
 0.00 0.0%






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Pres Trump says tax cuts, health care & more trade deals are ahead.  That's what Trump said during an interview at the World Economic Forum.  "We've done more than anybody in three years," says Trump.  "We are going to be doing a middle-class tax cut, a very big one. We'll be doing that. We'll be announcing that over the next 90 days."  the pres said there are great health care initiatives coming.  "We've done well with health care. We got rid of the individual mandate. That was a thing people couldn't do, they couldn't afford it, they didn't want it," said Trump. " They were forced to pay a number and not get health care. We are coming up with a plan that is going to be fantastic."  More trade deals are on the agenda going forward.  "The China deal is amazing, we'll be starting phase two very soon', said Trump.  "The tariffs were left on Chinese goods because its good to negotiate for phase two."  European deals are also coming.  "The European Union is tougher to deal with than anybody. They've taken advantage of our country for many years," he added.  "Ultimately it will be very easy because if we can't make a deal, we'll have to put 25 percent tariffs on their cars."

EXCLUSIVE: Trump promises 'very big' middle-class tax cut, trade deals, and health care in second term


Top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow hailed the major economic gains, including significant wage gains for low-income workers, made under Pres Trump, while suggesting that a pair of trade deals signed last week could boost GDP growth in the US to 3% in 2020.  “The great part about this to me — I’ve been around a while — is when you look inside, look under the hood, in this growth spurt, with 3.5 percent unemployment and virtually no inflation, which itself is a remarkable development, it is the American middle class, it is the American blue-collar, middle class, they have the fastest wage growth,” Kudlow said at the World Economic Forum.  Pay for the bottom 25% of wage earners, who account for 82% of the population, rose 4.5% in Nov from the year-ago period, according to recent data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  That’s the highest since 2008.  Wages for top earners, meanwhile, rose just 2.9% that month.  Overall, wages have accelerated this year by an average of 3.6%, as unemployment has held steady at 3.5%, a ½-century low.  For employers, low employment means fewer people are looking for a job, limiting the supply of available employees and increasing competition to get the best workers.  According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the ratio of unemployed people to job openings is less than 1-to-1, compared to a decade ago, when it was 6-to-1.  “The president’s trade deals have inspired a lot of confidence among large and small businesses, and I think it’s going to add at least half a point to GDP this year,” Kudlow added.  “I think we’re going to be moving into the 3 percent zone.”  Last week, Trump inked a partial trade deal with China, easing nearly 2 years of tensions that have rattled global financial markets & contributed to a worldwide growth slowdown.  One day later, the Senate approved the US-Mexico-Canada agreement in an overwhelming 80-10 vote.  Kudlow also shed light on how Trump’s reelection campaign intends to counter a key theme — that despite a record-long economic expansion, the gap between the haves & have-nots is widening — among Dem presidential candidates who are hoping to unseat him come in Nov.  “In the stock-market rally, I know it’s commonplace to say it only helps a few rich people,” Kudlow said.  “That is just not true.”  For instance, Kudlow said that more than ½ of the households in the US own shares thru either a 401(k) or an IRA  “You look at the numbers, the bottom 50% has had a 47% increase in their net wealth between home prices & share prices,” he added.  “And that is a booster rocket to this economy. It not only gives them confidence, it gives them some serious spending power.”

At Davos, Kudlow touts huge wage gains among blue-collar workers: ‘Booster rocket to this economy’


Coca-Cola (KO), a Dividend Aristocrat, CEO James Quincey said he is feeling confident about the state of the consumer in 2020, even as trade tensions and concerns about sluggish economic growth continue.  “You walk around Davos and there are some sectors that are feeling the pressure coming out of 2019 and into 2020 — more on the manufacturing side, some of the big trade sectors,” Quincey said.  “But the consumer seems to be robust around the world — yes, ups and downs, but they’re doing pretty well.”  The IMF on Mon revised its forecasts downward for 2019 & 2020, mostly due to slowing growth in India. The IMF also warned about uncertainty related to trade, which would weigh on the global economy.  At the World Economic Forum, business leaders have expressed doubts that China & the US will reach phase 2 of a trade deal before the end of Pres Trump's first term.  Still, Quincey said that the company is confident about consumer spending in 2019 and sees momentum heading into 2020.   KO stock went up 31¢.
If you would like to learn more about KO, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/KO?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Coca-Cola CEO: Consumer spending is ‘robust’ heading into 2020

Buyers returned & are taking stocks higher.  In the short term, earnings are coming & the reports are expected to be good which should bring new records.

Dow Jones Industrials








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