Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Markets climb higher after Trump's comments on Iran's attack

Dow jumped 161 (but 125 below session highs), advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ advanced 60.  The MLP index fell 1+ to 225 & the REIT index went up 2+ to the 401s.  Junk bond funds rose in price & Treasuries were sold as stocks rallied.  Oil sank 2+ to the 59s & gold dropped 18 to 1556 (more on both below).

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Pres Trump said the US will go after the Iranian economy, which is already under strain, following missile attacks launched by the rogue regime on military bases housing US forces in Iraq.  “As we continue to evaluate options in response to Iranian aggression, the United States will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the Iranian regime,” Trump said in an address to the nation from the White House.  “These powerful sanctions will remain until Iran changes its behavior.”  Trump also said the US will never allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon & that he plans to ask NATO to become more involved in the Middle East.  “Our great American forces are prepared for anything,” Trump said.  “Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world.”  While sanctions have so far failed to bring Iranian leadership to the negotiating table, they have caused the country's economy to suffer.  Moody's noted that Iran is not exporting much oil, “if any,” as a result of sanctions already in place & tightened sanctions will “make matters worse for the Iranian economy.”  According to the Tehran Times, as of Aug, inflation in the country had risen 41.6% year over year.  The IMF said in Oct that it expected Iran's economy would shrink by 9.5% in 2019, amid tighter US sanctions.  Unemployment, especially among youths, is also sky-high at 10.6%.  Sanctions have cut funding to Hezbollah & Hamas, Rep Florida Sen Rick Scott said.

Trump reveals retaliation against Iran after missile attack on US military forces


Macy's (M) reported a small decline in holiday same-store sales, surprising investors who were bracing for a sharper drop following an earlier profit warning.  The company, which cut its annual profit forecast in Nov blaming weak international tourism & sluggish mall traffic, reported a 0.6% decline in holiday sales during Nov & Dec.  Macy's is among the first major corp names to report sales for the holiday season, which is seen as a barometer for the health of US consumer spending.  The retailer also plans to shutter 28 Macy's locations & one Bloomingdale's store in the coming weeks.  The closures were part of a routine review of the company's store portfolio.  Macy's operates 860 stores in the US.  For Q1, analysts were expecting a 1.8% decline in same-store sales.  CEO Jeff Gennette said Macy's holiday sales benefited from online purchases & demand for gift products, as well as a complete revamp of about 150 stores with fresh interiors & better merchandise.  US consumers are increasingly spending more money online rather than queuing up at physical stores during the holiday season, forcing traditional brick-&-mortar retailers to invest in more shopping & delivery options.  US e-commerce sales in the period from Nov 1 thru Christmas Eve rose 18.8%, according to a Dec 25 report by Mastercard (MA), while overall holiday retail sales, excluding autos, rose just 3.4%.  Consumer spending in the country is benefiting from wage growth & the lowest unemployment rate in nearly ½ a century.  The stock gained 43¢ (with an 8% yield).
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Macy's closing stores amid holiday sales report surprise


Gold futures settled lower after a speech from Pres Trump indicated that Iran may be “standing down,” temporarily easing fears of escalating tensions between DC & Tehran, prompting prices for the metal to settle lower for the first time in 11 sessions.  Fears about how the US might respond to an Iranian retaliatory strike late Tues against US. military bases in Iraq temporarily sent gold to $1613 an ounce in intraday trading.  But bullion gave up some ground as market participants parsed Trump's remarks, which underscored that no US or Iraqi casualties resulted from the attacks & that US military bases suffered only minimal damage.  “Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world,” Trump said, while also urging NATO to get more involved in the Middle East process.  Feb gold fell $14 (0.9%) to settle at $1560 an ounce, after hitting an intraday high at $1613.  Yesterday, the most-active contract had settled at its highest since 2013 & logged a 10th consecutive session rise, the longest streak since an 11-day rise ended in 2 years. The missile strikes rattled markets overnight, but surging prices for safe-haven assets, like gold, moderated somewhat after Iran's foreign minister said the country had taken “proportionate measures in self-defense” & didn't seek escalation or war.  Investors flocked to riskier assets on the heels of Trump's speech.

Gold posts its first loss in 11 sessions as Trump’s speech ebbs Iran war worries


Oil futures fell sharply, logging lowest settlement since mid-Dec, as comments from Pres Trump calmed nerves surrounding a potential war with Iran.  Prices had seen a sharp but brief spike late Tues, brought on by Iranian missile strikes at bases in Iraq where US troops are stationed.  Today Trump said Iran “appears to be standing down” following those strikes, & announced fresh sanctions on the Islamic Republic.  Trump said the US suffered no casualties.  Ahead of the Trump's speech, perceptions that the assault could mark the end of the US-Iran conflict rather than an escalation, as well as data showing an unexpected weekly climb in US crude stockpiles, had combined to pull oil prices lower.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Feb delivery fell $3.09 (4.9%) to settle at $59.61 a barrel.  That was the lowest finish for a most-active contract since Dec 12.  Mar Brent crude lost $2.83 (4.2%) to $65.44 a barrel for the lowest finish since Dec 16.  WTI jumped as high as $65.65 a barrel, its highest intraday mark since late Apr, while Brent soared to $71.75 a barrel, the highest in more than 3 months, shortly after Iran launched attacks on 2 bases used by the US in Iraq.  Meanwhile, data from the Energy Information Administration showed that US crude supplies edged up by 1.2M barrels last week.  That followed declines in each of the previous 3 weeks. The forecast called for a decrease of 3.7M barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported a 5.95M-barrel decline. 

Oil logs lowest finish since mid-December as Trump speech cools Iran war worries


Stocks took the news on the missile attack in Iraq in stride.  Trump's comments calmed nerves after Midday trading although there was selling in the last hour of trading reducing today's gains.  Typically when stocks are purchased, gold is sold.  However gold remains at elevated levels reflecting numerous risks to the stock market.

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