Friday, January 31, 2020

Markets tumble on growing coronavirus worries by investors

Dow sank 410, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ pulled back 95  The MLP index slid back 1+ to the 206s & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 412s.  Junk bond funds edged lower & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil dropped to the 51s & gold was even at 1588.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil51.79
 -0.35-0.7%

GC=FGold   1,588.50
 -0.70-0.0%







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Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow stock, reported declining revenue at the end of last year & forecast lower 2020 profit than expected as user demand remains weak amid global economic worries fueled partly by the US trade battle with China.  The equipment maker reported EPS of $1.97, as sales fell 8.4% year-over-year to $13.1B, trailing projections.  Excluding items such as pension-plan losses & tax-reform impact, EPS amounted to $2.63, topping the $2.38 estimate from analysts.  For the full year, EPS was $10.74 a share as revenue fell 2% from a year earlier to $53.8B.  “We expect continued global economic uncertainty to pressure sales to users in 2020 and cause dealers to further reduce inventories," CEO Jim Umpleby said.  The construction industries business, which accounts for about 38% of sales, saw revenue fall 12% from a year ago to $5.02B as dealers stocked less equipment & fewer pieces of machinery were sold.  Sales were also impacted by "unfavorable price realization."  Meanwhile, sales at the energy & transportation unit, which makes up 45% of revenue, slid 5% year-over-year to $5.95B.   The decline was precipitated by a 23% drop in inter-segment engine sales.  Looking ahead, CAT sees full-year 2020 EPS of $8.50-10, missing the $10.68 that analysts were expecting.  The stock fell 2.05.
If you would like to learn more about CAT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CAT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Caterpillar warns global economic tremors will curb sales


Chevron (CVX), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, posted a massive Q4 loss after taking $10.4B worth of writedowns related to North American shale projects.  The oil giant lost $6.6B ($3.51 a share) in the 3 months thru Dec as revenue fell 14% to $36.3B.  Adjusted EPS of $1.49 topped the $1.43 that analysts were expecting.  “Cash flow from operations remained strong in 2019, allowing the company to deliver on all our financial priorities,” CEO Michael Wirth said.  Those included paying $9B in divs & buying back $4B of company shares, which typically drives up value for remaining stockholders.  The stock fell 3.77.
If you would like to learn more about CVX, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CVX?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
 

Chevron loses $6.6B after huge writedown of North American shale


US consumer sentiment came in marginally above expectations & within striking distance of a cyclical peak amid strength in the labor market & strong increases in income.  The Univ of Mich consumer sentiment index came in at 99.8 for Jan.  The forecast called for consumer sentiment to come in at 99.1 & a slight uptick from Dec's 99.3 reading.  “The resilience of consumers is remarkable and due to record low unemployment, record gains in income and wealth, as well as near record lows in inflation and interest rates,” said Richard Curtin, Surveys of Consumers chief economist.  The US unemployment rate was at 3.5% in Dec, its lowest level in about 5 decades.   Personal income rose 0.2% last month after a 0.4% in Nov.   Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept rates near historically low levels earlier in Jan.  Still, Curtin remarked this consumer resiliency “is surprising given the overall slow pace of economic growth, which was accompanied in January by renewed military engagements in the Mideast, an impeachment trial in the Senate, and a fast spreading coronavirus.” 

Consumer sentiment ticks up as unemployment remains around 50-year lows

The virus scare in China has become a major worry for investors around the world.  There are 10K cases & they only represent ones that have been reported.  Confidence in China's ability to control is disaster is plummeting.  The Dow is down 100 in Jan & has the makings of an ugly day for stocks.  As a result the price of gold is at multi year highs.

Dow Jones Industrials








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